Although we know banners and trophies are on the line this weekend, the national tournament awaits.  Selection Day is coming, and we need to take one final look at where the everyone sits in the pecking order.  Who needs specific results, and whose bubble has unfortunately popped.

With eight automatic bids, there are only four at-large bids on the table.  Take a look at my latest bracketology for an overall view of the tournament picture.  As always, the bubble is a chaotic and stressful place to be.  What’s even more stressful, is that a semi-complicated math problem is what determines things.  Now, it’s time to break down who has clinched a shot at a national championship, who needs one more win to do just that, and who is somewhere in between.  I’ll break down teams in specific categories first, and then I’ll give specific scenarios at the end of the article.

Locks

  • Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/62.029)
  • Augsburg (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/61.856)
  • Amherst (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/61.292)
  • UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/61.126)

Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”

These teams have locked up a chance at a national championship.  Augsburg will be making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history, after earning a thrilling 4OT win, the longest game in D-III women’s hockey history.  River Falls earned two semifinal wins over a solid UW-Superior team to earn a chance to repeat as national champs.  Middlebury and Amherst were already on solid footing, but are continuing to play for preferential seeding and potential byes.  These teams have nothing to sweat, selection-wise this weekend.

One-Bid Leagues

  • NCHA
    • St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/58.768)
    • Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/58.510)
  • MAC
    • Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/58.178)
    • Arcadia (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/57.747)
  • NEHC
    • Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/56.775)
    • Elmira (NPI Rank/Rating: #19/56.131)
  • UCHC
    • Nazareth (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/56.718)
    • Utica (NPI Rank/Rating: #21/55.855)

Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”

Though all four of these leagues have teams in the top 20, unfortunately, none of these conferences have a route to get multiple teams in.  There has been too much ground to make up, and the out-of-conference losses have impacted their NPI too much.  Regardless, that makes these conference title games all the more important.

One of these four games has a massive implication on how the bracket is shaped.  If Adrian wins at St. Norbert this Saturday, we could have an instance similar to last year, where the same west teams get disrespected by the NCAA.

I would not be surprised to see high seeds like Augsburg, River Falls, and maybe Gustavus (if they get in) get royally screwed by the committee if Adrian gets in.  With no St. Norbert, that’s one less west team, as Adrian will most likely be playing out east.  So if you’re an Auggie, Falcon, or Gustie fan, root like hell for St. Norbert.  Otherwise, there’s a chance you could see a very early matchup between extremely highly-ranked teams.

Potential Bid Thieves

  • NESCAC
    • Hamilton (NPI Rank/Rating: #20/56.048)
  • CNE
    • Curry (NPI Rank/Rating: #33/50.980)

Definition: “Win and be joyous, breaking the hearts of others.”

These two teams will not be punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid.  However, they could be potential “bid thieves,” stealing one of the available automatic bids.  Should Hamilton win the NESCAC, they definitely qualify.  If Curry wins, there is chance they would steal a bid as well, as CNE favorite Endicott is not necessarily out of the picture with a championship game loss.  However, Curry just needs one more win to clinch a bid, whereas the Continentals of Hamilton need two wins.

The Bubble

  • Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/60.487)
  • Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/60.434)
  • Colby (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/60.420)
  • Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/59.999)
  • Plattsburgh (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/59.904)

Definition: “Capture the automatic bid.  If not, hope and pray for the right results.”

Off the bat, let’s be clear, one of Oswego and Plattsburgh is a lock, as they face off in Oswego on Saturday afternoon for the SUNYAC automatic bid.  After that, there are at most two at-large bids up for grabs.

Endicott is a heavy favorite in the CNE, so they should win that and stay out of this drama.  Colby has two potential games left.  So, a semifinal win against Middlebury could offset a potential championship game loss, provided it’s against Amherst, and Hamilton doesn’t steal a bid.

Gustavus is ahead for now, but they are underdogs this weekend, traveling to Augsburg.  If they lose, how far do they drop?  How far does Oswego drop, should Plattsburgh win?  Unfortunately, we don’t know how the math is going to shake out.  These five teams are quite close in the NPI, so honestly, anything is on the table here.

If home teams win this weekend, Plattsburgh is probably out.  If the Cardinals win, it all depends on what Gustavus and Colby do.  I think Endicott is probably a longshot to get in with a loss, but you never know, especially if these other teams all drop games as well.  This is going to be extremely close for the last bid or two.

Notes/Scenarios

To sum up…

  • The Oswego/Plattsburgh winner clinches a bid.
    • If Oswego wins, I think Plattsburgh is the odd team out, unless Curry wins the CNE.
      • In that case, I believe it comes down to Endcott and Plattsburgh for the final spot.
    • If Plattsburgh wins, Oswego is in the thick of the bubble race with Colby and Gustavus.
  • If Hamilton wins the NESCAC, there is one less at-large spot for current bubble teams.
  • If Curry wins the CNE, there is likely one less at-large spot for current bubble teams, depending on if Endicott still has a chance as a bubble team or not, which I believe they do.
  • Obviously, if Endicott or Gustavus win Saturday, they clinch a bid.
    • Endicott is favored, but Gustavus is an underdog.
  • Colby has two potential games remaining, so like other bubble teams, they could potentially lose. 
    • However, Colby has one more huge win they could add to their NPI if they don’t get the auto-bid, which could buoy them.

With all these things to remember, here is a rooting guide for bubble teams.

  • Colby: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Oswego, Augsburg, Curry
  • Endicott: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Oswego, Augsburg, Middlebury
  • Gustavus: Root for yourselves (obviously), but if you don’t win: root for Oswego, Curry, Middlebury
  • Oswego: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Augsburg, Middlebury, Curry
  • Plattsburgh: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Augsburg, Middlebury, Curry

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