NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Women

With less than two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, I thought it would be beneficial to review the sport as a whole.  This includes the information we’ve collected over the last few months, and what that means for conference tournaments as a whole, and most importantly, who’s in?

Who qualifies for the NCAA Tournament is a massive question each and every year.  With plenty of controversy and so much on the line for each individual involved, this is always a riveting debate.  Not to mention, with the increased amount of parity in the sport, you can argue that almost everyone has a shot to make a deep run.  Just look at last year: #10 seed (out of 11) Elmira made a run all the way to the national championship game.  The sport has come a long way.

So, here’s how this is going to work.  I’m going to categorize each team into specific categories and how I see their chances at making the NCAA tourney.  I will then have a breakdown of that specific team’s odds and what needs to happen moving forward.  If there are questions, hypotheticals you’d like to entertain, or any concerns on the system as a whole, please feel free to leave a comment below.

Locks

• Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/61.880)
• Amherst (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/61.327)

Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”

Middlebury (18-5-1)

Middlebury did its best to work its way off of the “Locks” section based off past weekend.  Despite the 2 road losses to red-hot Colby, the Panthers still have done enough in my book to firmly be in the field, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

Middlebury earned the #2 seed in the NESCAC tournament, and hosts #7 seed Williams (#25 in NPI) in the quarterfinals.  Home losses are far more damaging than away losses in the NPI.  However, even a loss against the Ephs will bump them out of the field, in my opinion.  NESCAC losses have shown they haven’t moved the needle too much in the NPI.

One might think that if there are lots of “bid thieves” that take away automatic bids from other favorites, then Middlebury could be screwed.  The issue is, many conferences are looking to be one-bid leagues regardless of who wins.  The NESCAC/MIAC/SUNYAC bunches of teams have really made this scenario almost zero.  Win or lose against Williams, I think the Panthers are a lock for their fifth consecutive NCAA appearance.

Regardless, I think the Panthers have bigger fish to fry, as the #1 seed is in play, especially if they can make it to at least the NESCAC final.  Frozen Four hosting isn’t on the line this year, but they’d love last change, home whites, and favorable bracketing principles.

Amherst (18-5-1)

Amherst worked its way into this category with the final home overtime win this past Saturday against Hamilton.  This locked up the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament, swiping it from Middlebury at the very last moment.  With this, they have the inside track to host the remainder of that tournament, where they could use the momentum from snug Orr Rink to vault the Mammoths into #1 overall seed territory.

The Mammoths non-conference schedule was not nearly as strong as Middlebury’s, but they have stacked impressive wins over Bowdoin (2x), Oswego, and Nazareth.  To be clear, I don’t necessarily agree Amherst should be a sure-fire lock, as there have been some shaky losses along the way.  But, with where the numbers are at, I don’t see them missing.

Amherst will host 8th-seeded Connecticut College (#29 in NPI) this Saturday.  Even if Amherst loses, I don’t see them falling all the way to outside the bubble.  The Oswego non-con win is huge for NPI purposes.  I’ve tracked this data all year long, and even a home loss to #29 doesn’t seem like it will punish the Mammoths enough to miss entirely.  A bye would probably be off the table, but these NESCAC losses (even Wesleyan) hardly seem to move the needle.  Jeff Matthews’ Mammoths will be dancing for the third consecutive year.

Near-Locks

• Augsburg (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/61.666)
• UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/61.012)

Definition: “Don’t screw around this weekend, and you’re fine”

Augsburg (21-3-1)

The Auggies made a huge move in the NPI this past week, beating a good Saint Mary’s team twice to capture the program’s first conference title in 25 years.  This bumped them up to #2 in the NPI ratings, and are within striking distance of the top overall seed.  Let’s be clear, I think Augsburg is getting in.  I think they’re winning the MIAC tournament.  Even if they don’t, they have a great shot.  All they need to do in my book, is win this weekend, and they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.

Augsburg will host the winner of the 4-seed Saint Mary’s (#24 in NPI) and 5-seed St. Olaf (#30 in NPI) Saturday night in Minneapolis.  Win, and I think you can move the Auggies to the lock category, regardless of MIAC Championship result.

While Augsburg is in very good shape, I would not consider them a 100% lock just yet.  The issue is, if they do lose in the MIAC semifinals, there’s a chance, that they could be left out.  Middlebury and Amherst have NESCAC opponents left on the schedule, and due to the winning percentage the NESCAC has against other east leagues, I don’t think a loss hurts them much.

Augsburg is in a very strong league, but the MIAC doesn’t play many conferences other than the WIAC and NCHA at times.  I think a loss, with a couple bubble teams going far in their respective conference tourneys could spell heartbreak for Augsburg.

UW-River Falls (20-3-2)

About a month ago, it was looking that the WIAC’s lack of an automatic bid was really going to bite the Falcons in the backside.  Now, they’re oh-so-close to defending their crown as last year’s national champions.  River Falls overcame a few slow starts post new-year to win some big games against the likes of Superior and Saint Mary’s.  The team is rolling as of late, finding their offensive groove, and pummeling nearly everyone they face, including two beatdowns of rival Eau Claire to boost their NPI.

Along with other teams starting to falter, River Falls has rode this hot streak to a very favorable position.  River Falls will have two games in the WIAC semifinals at home this weekend.  They will play the winner of 4-seed UW-Superior (#37 in NPI) and 5-seed Northland (#78 in NPI).  Most likely, this means the Yellowjackets come to town for the Friday-Saturday series.  As long as UWRF doesn’t trip up, they’ll surely be locked up to try to defend their crown.

If lightning strikes, and the Falcons falter at home, it will be their strength of schedule that brings them back on the bubble.  The NPI has RF’s strength of schedule listed as 36th in the country.  Personally, I think this SOS metric is pretty asinine.  Any schedule that features Gustavus (3x), Adrian (2x), UWEC (3x), and Augsburg seems like the math isn’t working here.  Anyways, just win both games this weekend, and the Falcons will be in, regardless of the WIAC title game result.

In a Good Spot

• Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/60.371)

Definition: “This weekend, win.  Next weekend, win, just in case.  If not, pray for the right wins.”

Oswego (21-2-2)

The Lakers of Oswego State have been through a magical season, smashing program record after program record, and have made it through a couple of good teams in the SUNYAC to capture conference supremacy.  Oswego, like Augsburg is trying to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history. Last weekend was massive for the Lakers.  Had it gone differently, they could be right on the bubble, or even on the wrong side of it.  Oswego managed a tie with fellow top 10 team Cortland at home, before hitting the road and beating the Red Dragons in overtime in their own barn.

Oswego is in its own category for a reason, they’re a good step down in the NPI from the top 4, meaning it’ll be tough to consider them anything close to a lock.  Mathematically, they’re pretty darn close to the bubble.  This weekend, they will have the Roos of Canton (#45 in NPI), coming into town as the 4 seed in the SUNYAC.  Not slipping up at home to a less-than-great team will be crucial for Oz.  If they lose, I think they’re most likely out, as that’s a brutal loss.  There’s a chance they could still make it with a Canton loss.  However, I’m not predicting them to do so.

Should they win, they’ll have home ice against a quality team who will be fighting for not only a championship, but their lives, as the winner of Plattsburgh and Cortland will be squarely on the bubble as well.  Obviously, if the Lakers defend home ice and win the conference, they’re in, and could maybe work their way into a bye game depending on what the top four do.

However, a loss makes things more complicated.  What’s on the Lakers’ side, is that even if they lose the title game, that’s one less bubble team they battle against.  If Oswego does drop the SUNYAC title game, home losses are a bit more damaging, but you’ll have to be rooting hard against certain teams, and hard for certain others.  Oswego is in a much better spot than some others down below, but they should take advantage of this opportunity just to be safe, and end the tournament drought.

Win Your League or Else..

• Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/60.031)

Definition: “Capture the automatic bid.  If not, you need a miracle.”

Endicott (20-4-1)

The Gulls of Endicott are the perfect team to be represented in this category.  EC has been bit by Cinderella twice in a row, being upset by Suffolk and WNE the last 2 years in the (formerly) CCC Tournament.  Now, Endicott’s 24-25 squad has proven to be much stronger than what we’ve seen in Beverly, Mass the last two years.  So, there’s some hope that Endicott could still survive an upset.  But I wouldn’t take the risk if I’m the Gulls.

To put it simply, Endicott has taken care of business.  The Gulls started sluggish, getting picked off a couple times by CNE foes.  But as of late, they’ve been near-perfect.  They’ve gone 11-0-1 in their last 12 games, and have avoided the costly upset that would have knocked them out of this category.  Thanks to T.C.B. and a decently strong non-con schedule, they’ve been able to work on that NPI number.  A couple of competitive Middlebury losses and a fluky, but nonetheless massive St. Norbert win have given Endicott some breathing room.

This weekend, Endicott is fittingly hosting the winner of the 2 schools who dispatched them in years past: 5-seed Suffolk (#51 in NPI) and 4-seed WNE (#27 in NPI).  There’s a couple things at play here, as who they plays matters a lot.

I’m not sure how WNE only got the 4-seed in the CNE this year, as they’ve looked to be at minimum one of the top two challengers to the Gulls.  If it’s WNE, a miracle could keep them alive at the end of the day if the Golden Bears manage to win the CNE, but not likely at all.  If it’s Suffolk, Endicott has to win.  Point blank period.

Should Endicott make the final, again, they should remove all doubt and take care of business at home, like they’ve done all season.  But playoffs can be a funny time of year.  In a potential championship, they’ll likely play Curry (#36 in NPI) or UNE (#38 in NPI).  A loss likely kills any at-large hopes, but there is a slim chance, provided the dominos around them fall the right way.  I mean every single domino.

Bubble Trouble

• Colby (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/60.358)
• Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/60.227)
• Plattsburgh (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/59.522)

Definition: “Do everything in your power to get the auto-bid.  Otherwise, hold your breath until the finish line.”

Colby (16-5-2)

Colby has come on extremely strong as of late, winning 7 of 8, and four of those coming against the two locks in this field: Middlebury and Amherst.  This late push has gotten the Mules back in the NCAA tournament picture.  Colby has the benefit of multiple games against strong teams, who they’ve recently shown they can beat.

Colby got the 3 seed in the NESCAC tournament, meaning they’ll host the 6 seed, Trinity (#26 in NPI) on Saturday.  That’s a good opportunity to pick up a solid home win, but the loss would do far more damage than a win would do good.  The Mules most likely need a win on Saturday, unless all other bubble teams lose.  If they can get by the Bantams, who they’ve beaten three times already this season, they’ll head to the NESCAC semis the next weekend, held at the highest seed remaining.

If we assume the top seeds hold serve, the Mules will get one more shot at Middlebury in the semifinals, which would be held at Amherst in that instance.  That could be one more massive opportunity for Colby.  If Colby can earn a pair of wins against Trinity and Middlebury, there’s an extremely strong change they will be in the field, regardless of NESCAC championship.  So if you’re a Mule fan, you definitely need one win in the NESCAC tourney to have a shot, and two should get the job done.

Gustavus (20-5-0)

Just about four days ago, the Gusties top priority in this tournament looked to be chasing down Middlebury for the #1 overall seed.  Just as Colby shot up the rankings this weekend, the Gusties plummeted.  They lost a heartbreaker at home to a good Hamline squad, and then needed a miracle to capture a road victory against the Pipers on Saturday.  Given Hamline’s strength, I’m shocked GAC has fallen this far, but that’s what the NPI spits out.

What’s even more concerning for the Gusties, is that they earned the #2 seed in the MIAC playoffs, failing to win the league championship for the first time since 2018-19.  Now, they host the #3 seed, which is…. you guessed it, Hamline (#23 in NPI).  If Gustavus loses Saturday, they are done.  It’s as easy as that, and they’ll miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since that 18-19′ season.  If they win, they’re in better shape for sure.

If they can find a way to get the monkey off their back and defeat Hamline, they’ll likely have an away game vs. Augsburg.  I think there’s a decent chance Gustavus can get in with a road loss to a very-highly rated Augsburg team.  I wouldn’t say it’s overly likely or unlikely, but there’s definitely a decent window, depending on other results.  If the Auggies get upset by Saint Mary’s or St. Olaf, I think that MIAC title game becomes a must-win for the Gusties, as it shifts to a home contest vs. a much lower-ranked team.

Plattsburgh (18-6-1)

From one blue blood of the sport, to another, we’ve arrived at the Plattsburgh Cardinals, who are in very unfamiliar territory.  What’s remarkable about this team, is that on paper, this is the worst regular season the PSU women have ever had, as they’ve never had a win percentage this low, or this many losses at this point in the year.  Now, all can be forgotten if some of that Cardinal magic happens as the calendar flips to March.

Plattsburgh’s recent loss to Williams surely didn’t help things, but the Cards have also been hampered by Colby’s late push, and Oswego refusing to lose games.  This weekend, Plattsburgh did just enough to get a home game, as they got the #2 seed.  They’ll host #3 seed Cortland (#11 in NPI) in potentially the game of the weekend.  I’d call this one an elimination game for sure.  Cortland needs it as well, and especially with this one at home, PSU can’t afford to lose it.  If the Cardinals can even the season series and defeat the Red Dragons, they’ll be in much better condition.

The following week, a road loss to Oswego wouldn’t necessarily kill Platty’s chances either.  I don’t think they’re anywhere close to a lock with a loss though.  So, the Cardinals should prepare for the worst, and win the automatic bid.  With Oswego and Plattsburgh neither being 100% for a bid with a loss, that could create an insane environment with loads of tension.  If Plattsburgh does lose the SUNYAC title game, it has to be to Oswego for them to have any chance, provided the right teams lose around them.  If they somehow play Canton in the title game, Plattsburgh will need to win the game, no doubt.

Needs a Miracle for an At-Large

• Cortland (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/58.723)
• Bowdoin (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/58.528)

Definition: “Hope and pray.”

Cortland (17-4-4)

The Red Dragons fought hard the last two games, but didn’t do enough to give themselves a better chance at securing an at-large bid.  According to my rough estimate, if Cortland wants a bid, 98% of the time, I think they’ll need it to be the automatic bid.  However, if they can defeat Plattsburgh (#9 in NPI) on the road, they’ll at least have a  Dumb and Dumber-like chance at it.

A road loss to Oswego in the title game isn’t the worst thing in the world.  However, they’d most likely need Colby and Gustavus to go one-and-done in their respective tournaments, Endicott to win the CNE, and probably Amherst to win the NESCAC, to bump up Oswego’s own NPI numbers.

There’s a shot for sure, but I don’t know if their NPI is quite high enough at the moment for them to bump back in, even with one more quality Plattsburgh win.

Bowdoin (16-7-0)

Similar to Cortland, Bowdoin needs a lot to go their way, that’s out of their control.  The one thing the Polar Bears have going for it, is that it’s in the mighty NESCAC, giving them a big boost when they can come away with a victory.  Bowdoin has been streaky at times this year, but it looks like they’re starting to find their rhythm again, winning three straight.

Bowdoin did enough to earn home ice, as they got the #4 seed in the NESCAC tourney.  They’ll host #5 seed Hamilton (#22 in NPI) on Saturday.  They’ve lost to the Continentals twice already, but winning would be a good start to getting back on the right side of the bubble.  At that point, if Bowdoin wants a shot at an at-large, they’ll want the other favorites to win.  (Realistically, if they want the bid, the automatic bid with plenty of upsets is a better bet).

Let’s say favorites win, and that means Bowdoin has a true road game at the #1 seed, Amherst.  That could be massive win that vaults the Polar Bears back into realistic contention.  Then, a potential neutral-site game with Middlebury is the path towards Bowdoin getting an at-large.

Yes, they’d like the auto-bid, but there’s a small chance should they lose to a Middlebury, or maybe a Colby.  Similar to Cortland, they’ll need help around them.  Rooting against Colby would be smart for the Polar Bears, although that dings two of the team’s best wins this year.  So that’s a bit tough.  Rooting against Gustavus, Plattsburgh will be key, and to a lesser extent, Colby and Cortland.

Auto-Bid or Bust

• St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/58.732)
• Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/58.196)
• Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/58.003)
• Arcadia (NPI Rank/Rating: #15/57.605)
• Nazareth (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/56.692)
• Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/56.612)
  • And many more….

Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”

All these teams unfortunately ran out of road on the season to make a late push at an at-large bid.  I especially feel for St. Norbert, as they ever-so-slightly worked their way up the rankings, but they didn’t get enough help around them.  In the NCHA, there just was not enough quality wins outside of Adrian or Concordia-WI to help the Green Knights’ resume.  Adrian is in a similar situation as well.

(SIDE NOTE: If you are a fan of Augsburg, River Falls, Gustavus, or a potential MIAC bid thief…. root root root for St. Norbert in the NCHA playoffs.  If Adrian gets in, there is a real chance the NCAA pairs up three non-Adrian west schools into one pod.  If SNC gets in, it’s likely the NCAA splits them up before the Frozen Four.

So, I can confidently say, that these conferences will be one-bid leagues:

• MAC (Wilkes, Arcadia, Lebanon Valley, Alvernia)
• NCHA (St. Norbert, Adrian, Concordia-WI, Lake Forest)
• NEHC (Norwich, Elmira, Salve Regina, or William Smith)
• UCHC (Nazareth, Utica, Manhattanville, or Chatham)

Wrap-Up

Hopefully, fans of these teams and conferences, and sport in general got some insight as to how the final games of the season could shake down before the NCAA Tournament.  I will be sure to update this with additional posts, following the weekend of games.  That way, we can take a refreshed view of things following the chaos (or lack thereof).

I’ll give a bit of a prediction of sorts to close, if we are going off likely scenarios, I am going to assume the Near-Locks of Augsburg and River Falls get in, and I’ll say the Auggies take the MIAC auto-bid.  Throw those in with Amherst and Middlebury, and we have four.  Then, we have the 4 one-bid leagues.  I’ll take Arcadia in the MAC, Adrian in the NCHA, Norwich in the NEHC, and Naz in the UCHC.

I will predict Amherst to win the NESCAC title as well.  I’ll also take Endicott to finish the job in the CNE.  Then, I’ll take Plattsburgh to return to form and win the SUNYAC playoff.  So at this point, we have two remaining spots.  I think Oswego does enough to get in, and I predict Colby will do just enough to get the final nod over the Gusties.

As of now, I predict the field looks something like this: (auto-bids in parentheses)

1. Amherst (NESCAC)
2. Augsburg (MIAC)
3. UW-River Falls
4. Middlebury
5. Plattsburgh (SUNYAC)
6. Oswego
7. Endicott (CNE)
8. Colby
9. Adrian (NCHA)
10. Nazareth (UCHC)
11. Arcadia (MAC)
12. Norwich (NEHC)