With less than two weeks remaining until NCAA Tournament selections, the question has never been more important: who’s in? There is hockey left to be played, but the games are becoming fewer and fewer, meaning there’s not much time to make an impact on the brand-new NPI ratings.
In this article, I’m going to categorize each team into specific categories and how I see their chances at making the NCAA tourney. I will then have a breakdown of that specific team’s odds and what needs to happen moving forward. If there are questions, hypotheticals you’d like to entertain, or any concerns on the system as a whole, please feel free to leave a comment down below!
Locks
- Curry (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/62.191)
- Hobart (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/61.327)
- Aurora (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/60.619)
- Utica (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/60.278)
Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”
Curry (22-3-0)
The Colonels are enjoying one of the best seasons in program history, and have continued to fend off foe after foe down the home stretch. CC hasn’t lost since December 6, a remarkable feat, given they’ve played multiple tournament-level teams since then, such as UNE, Trinity, Anna Maria, and Endicott.
Even if the Colonels’ 14-game win streak comes to an end during the CNE tourney, they will be more than fine in regards to making the field. However, Curry likely will need to win the CNE in order to get that #1 overall seed. No, there’s no Frozen Four hosting implications this year, but a favorable path is very important as well.
Even more importantly, is staying in the top 2 of the NPI, as only two schools get a bye in the NCAA First Round. Getting as high in the rankings as possible allows them a strong chance at achieving that bye. This weekend, Curry will be heavy favorites against the winner of 5-seed Nichols (#51 in NPI) and 4-seed Suffolk (#31 in NPI) at the Canton Ice House. Again, even with a loss, the Colonels will still be a lock.
Hobart (23-1-1)
Enter the two-time defending national champion Hobart Statesmen. For most of the season, Hobart looked to be unbeatable. They’ve only a loss and a tie to their resume so far, so it’s been another incredible season. The only caveat is that the overall schedule has been lacking thus far.
There wasn’t many challenges in the non-conference, and the NEHC has had a very down year in its final year of existence. Norwich, Elmira, Babson, and Skidmore are all solid teams. However, they are not up to the standard of what they’ve been in recent years.
Hobart recently tied to Babson, which knocked them from the perch of the NPI rankings. Similar to Curry, Hobart very much would like that #1 seed to get a bye, and as favorable bracket draw as possible, especially with their geography.
This Saturday, Hobart has a quarterfinal game against the one team it lost to: Albertus Magnus (#45 in NPI). Even though a home loss would damage the NPI number a good bit, the Statemen still are in an amazing spot to be. Though, Hobart would kiss the bye goodbye in that scenario.
Aurora (23-3-1)
Had I written this a week ago, the Spartans would most definitely be in a lower category. However, when Aurora took care of Lawrence in an NCHA quarterfinal sweep, they locked up their first bid to the NCAA Tournament in program history. That is what’s called seizing their opportunity.
The Spartans rode a hot start to the season to the Christmas break, and never really looked back. In fact, the Spartans haven’t lost since December 29th, as they’re 13-0-1 in their last 14.
This week will be challenging, as they have a desperate and extremely talented Adrian team visiting in the NCHA semis. They’re 2-1 against AC this season, and a win could be huge towards getting a bye.
If Aurora can win the NCHA tournament, they have a decent chance to jump up to the top 2, putting them in potential bye territory. But, they may need help around them if they’re thinking bye, as it might get tricky depending on the number of west teams qualifying. Regardless, the Spartans are primed for a deep NCAA run.
Utica (20-3-2)
Utica is the final team that can consider themselves locked and loaded for another NCAA Tournament run, and potentially a second-straight Frozen Four trip. While Utica’s schedule hasn’t been a complete gauntlet, they have plenty of difficult games on their resume, including a 2-game split with Adrian, a 1-2-1 record against new-conference rival Geneseo, and wins against UNE and Oswego.
With Utica taking care of business last week against Manhattanville, the Pioneers have now built a large enough lead that they’ll be sitting pretty come Selection Day. Utica will be hosting the winner of 3-seed Manhattanville (#48 in NPI) and 6-seed Brockport (#74 in NPI) in the UCHC semifinals. Even with a loss, the Pioneers’ NPI is too high, and even with mass chaos, Utica will be locked in.
Even with a UCHC tournament championship, I doubt the Pioneers earn a top 2 seed, unless the 3 schools in front of them fall apart. Bye or no bye, Utica will be one of the most dangerous teams in this field.
Near-Lock
- Geneseo (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/60.395)
Definition: “Don’t screw around this weekend, and you’re fine”
Geneseo (20-4-1)
Had Geneseo swept Nazareth last weekend, you could sharpie them in as a lock for the tournament as well. Unfortunately, that was not the case, as the Golden Flyers tripped up the Knights Saturday evening. Fortunately for Geneseo, they’ve built up enough equity throughout the campaign to still be in a great spot.
Geneseo has a pretty sizable lead over the next team in rankings (#6 St. Norbert), so they’ve got a pretty large buffer before reaching the bubble. If Geneseo falls in the UCHC semifinal this weekend, then, they might fall down closer to the bubble, where a few upsets could then end their season early.
Geneseo will host either Chatham (#56 in NPI) or Nazareth (#40 in NPI) this weekend. Both teams have been able to upset Genny at one point this year. As long as Geneseo can win this weekend, they’ll be a lock for their sixth NCAA appearance in the last seven tournaments. A home loss, and it’s still up in the air, as you can never count out upsets in other tournaments.
Good Shape
- St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/58.367)
Definition: “Probably will be good regardless, but a win removes all doubt”
St. Norbert (21-5-1)
Ho hum. We have another elite season for St. Norbert. But now that we’re here in March, coach Tim Coghlin will be looking for his team to hit the afterburners and pick up some steam. For as good as the team has been, it’s been a bit of an odd way to get to 21 wins thus far.
SNC started the season 12-0, with wins over Stevens Point, Aurora (2x), and Trine. However, the Green Knights remarkably then lost 4 in a row. Since then, Norbert has seemed to rebound, going 9-1-1 in their last 11. However, they are coming off a disappointing tie in Game 2 of the NCHA quarterfinals against Concordia-WI. That home tie hurt their NPI a bit, but they have a huge chance to make up for that.
This weekend, Norbert will host Trine in the game of the week in D-III men’s hockey. The Thunder will be desperate, but to an extent, SNC will be too. If the Green Knights, win, they’ll be a lock, regardless of NCHA title game result. If St. Norbert loses, I’m still fairly confident they’ll get in. They can afford an upset or two in other leagues, but not many more.
Right Side of the Bubble
- UNE (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/58.047)
- Trine (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/57.787)
Definition: “In okay shape at the moment, but could use help to feel safer”
UNE (18-6-1)
To some extent, I feel good about the above six teams making the field. This is where it gets a little more dicey. UNE is putting together yet another strong season under Kevin Swallow. The Nor’Easters have done well for themselves in a pretty tricky CNE this season.
UNE has taken care of business against almost all teams it should beat, but are a little light on quality wins. That being said, their ranking is being buoyed by a massive Curry victory back in December. Regardless, there’s something to be said for consistently winning down the stretch in crunch time, regardless of opponent. UNE has won 11 of 12 heading into the postseason.
This week, UNE will be hosting the winner of Endicott (#15 in NPI) and Wentworth (#66 in NPI). This is a bit of a tricky situation for the Nor’Easters. Obviously, a Wentworth matchup would be much more likely in terms of getting the the CNE title game. But, there’s an argument that playing a tough Endicott team could be what gets them into the field regardless of if they can win the CNE auto-bid.
Personally, I think an Endicott win and Curry loss puts them in very good shape. If it’s a Wentworth win and then a Curry loss, I think it’s a little more up in the air. There’s a solid chance they can get in with a loss to Endicott as well. If they do lose, it will come down to other conference tournaments though, and that’s a lot that’s out of UNE’s control.
Trine (20-5-2)
Currently, Trine is the last team in the field, which is never a great spot to be. However, Trine has played some pretty decent hockey as of late, and easily took care of a frisky Marian team in the NCHA quarters last week to help build up their resume.
This week, the Thunder have a tricky road game in the semifinal against aforementioned St. Norbert. This will be quite the battle, and the two teams have already split this year. If Trine can pull out a win, this will be a massive rocket launcher to their NPI rating. I can’t say it would lock them up by any means, but it sure would help them more than let’s say, a UNE home win against Endicott.
If Trine can’t pull it out, it is not a backbreaker per se. However, Trine then becomes the biggest fans of teams on its tail in the NPI rankings, such as Hamilton and Stevens Point. Trine needs them to win their respective conference tourneys. Also, they would need Adrian to lose ASAP.
Needs Help or an Auto-Bid
- UW-Stevens Point (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/56.811)
- Hamilton (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/56.681)
- Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/56.252)
Definition: “Find a way to win your conference. If not, you better make it to the final, and get tons of help along the way.”
UW-Stevens Point (18-5-2)
As we reach the other side of the bubble, these teams need some sort of help from those ahead of them in the rankings. Stevens Point is included in this category, or else they’ll need the WIAC auto-bid.
The Pointers started just 4-3-1, but since have gone a remarkable 14-2-1, with some a couple impressive wins along the way. Despite losing the shootout against Superior to earn the 2-seed in the WIAC playoffs, the Pointers have finished very strong, and are playing quality hockey.
This weekend, the Pointers will host 3-seed Eau Claire (#46 in NPI) for a pair of games at the Willett. Remember, the WIAC has the 2-game series with potential minigame for the first two rounds of their tournament. If the Pointers want a chance at an at-large, they absolutely need both of these wins, given UWEC’s relatively low NPI.
Then, if they do lose a potential title game, it would have to be an away game at Superior, rather than a home game against River Falls. Even if UWSP beats UWEC twice, and then falls to Superior, they probably need some chaos. They most likely need UNE and/or Trine to go down this weekend, and even then, I’m not sure if it would be enough. Winning the WIAC is the safe route.
Hamilton (17-6-1)
Similar to Stevens Point, Hamilton can easily remove all doubt by winning the NESCAC. They’ve shown to be the class of the league this season. However, the Continentals are fading a bit as of late. Following a nine-game win streak that started after the new year, HC has gone 2-3-1 in their final six regular season games.
After earning the NESCAC’s #1 seed, Hamilton will get 8th-seeded Connecticut College (#54 in NPI) coming to Sage Rink. Looking at who UNE, Trine, and Point are playing this week, beating the Camels isn’t going to move the needle much. If Hamilton loses, they’re done.
If Hamilton can move onto the semis, all remaining games will be at their home rink, which to be honest, isn’t great if they can’t win the auto-bid. The NESCAC reseeds, so anyone they play will be at least 4th ranked or worse in the conference standings. Coincidentally, the best-ranked NPI team they could play in the semis is the 7-seed: Middlebury (#37 in NPI). Even with a home title game loss to Trinity or Colby, this is a tight needle to thread. Like Point, they’ll need UNE and Trine to lose, and probably Point too.
Adrian (17-9-1)
Adrian is in a tough spot, as their record isn’t what they’re used to in a transition year. However, the schedule they’ve played is an absolute gauntlet, which is saving them for any sort of at-large hopes. Adrian suffered an extremely damaging home loss last week, even if it was to a good MSOE team.
After surviving the minigame, the Bulldogs have a tremendous opportunity to move up the NPI. If they can defeat Aurora on the road, that is the kind of win that really makes some noise and gives them a shot at an at-large. Obviously, a title game loss isn’t ideal, but depending on the math, there is a chance for them, preferably with a title game date with St. Norbert, which is a detriment to fellow bubble team, Trine.
Needs a Miracle for an At-Large
- Trinity (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/56.243)
- Cortland (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/56.153)
- UW-Superior (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/55.701)
- Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #15/55.414)
Definition: “Hope and pray.”
The reality is, these teams have a nonzero chance at getting an at-large, but it sure is close to zero. Instead of building up a ton of potential false hope, I’ll just lay out exactly what needs to happen for them to even have a fraction of a chance for the math to go their way.
Trinity (16-6-2)
- Win Home quarterfinal vs. Middlebury (#37 NPI)
- Win Neutral site semifinal vs. Colby (#20 NPI)
- Lose Away championship @ Hamilton (#10 NPI)
- Immediate losses from as many as possible from:
- Geneseo, UNE, Adrian, Trine
- Auto-bids from:
- UWSP, Curry, Hobart, Utica
Cortland (19-6-0)
- Win Home game vs. Plattsburgh (#38 NPI)
- Lose Home championship vs. Oswego (#17 NPI)
- Immediate losses from as many as possible from:
- Geneseo, UNE, Adrian, Trine, Trinity
- Auto-bids from:
- Hamilton, UWSP, Curry, Hobart, Utica
UW-Superior (18-4-3)
- Win BOTH home semifinal games vs. UW-River Falls (#24 NPI)
- Lose home championship vs. UW-Stevens Point (#9 NPI)
- Immediate losses from as many as possible from:
- Geneseo, UNE, Adrian, Trine, Trinity
- Auto-bids from:
- Hamilton, Cortland, Curry, Hobart, Utica
Endicott (17-7-1)
- Win home first round game vs. Wentworth (#66 NPI)
- Win away semifinal @ UNE (#7 NPI)
- Lose away championship @ Curry (#1 NPI)
- Immediate losses from as many as possible from:
- Geneseo, Adrian, Trine, UWS, Trinity
- Auto-bids from:
- Hamilton, UWSP, Cortland, Hobart, Utica
Auto-Bid or Bust
- Plymouth State (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/54.767)
- Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/54.261)
- Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #18/53.694)
- Bethel (NPI Rank/Rating: #29/52.286)
- Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #34/51.252)
- And many more….
Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”
Unfortunately, these teams are way too far back in the NPI and have too many bodies to climb to get back into having a chance at an at-large bid. So, they better win their league tournaments if they want to dance.
So, I can confidently say, that these conferences will be one-bid leagues:
- MAC
- MASCAC
- MIAC
Wrap-Up
Hopefully, fans of these teams and conferences, and sport in general got some insight as to how the final games of the season could shake down before the NCAA Tournament. I will be sure to update this with additional posts, following the weekend of games. That way, we can take a refreshed view of things following the chaos (or lack thereof).
I will say, compared to my women’s bubble watch, this is much more cut-and-dry. The teams on the right side of the bubble have a bigger lead on those outside of it, and the teams at the top have quite a large lead on them. But, crazier things have happened.
I’ll give a bit of a prediction of sorts to close, if we are going off likely scenarios, I am going to assume Geneseo and St. Norbert get the job done to bring us to six locks. I think UNE will get the semifinal win they need to break the hearts of the teams needing upsets. Then, I think most other favorites win their league tournament. But, I can’t pick no upsets, right? So, I’ll say Adrian shocks the world, and defeats Aurora in the semifinals. I think that win will be just, just, just enough to hold off Trine and get in the field.
As of this moment, I predict the field looks something like this.
- Curry (CNE)
- Hobart (NEHC)
- Utica (UCHC)
- Aurora
- St. Norbert (NCHA)
- Geneseo
- UNE
- Adrian
- Hamilton (NESCAC)
- UW-Stevens Point (WIAC)
- Oswego (SUNYAC)
- Plymouth State (MASCAC)
- Wilkes (MAC)
- Bethel (MIAC)
