With ten conference championships awarded this weekend, there is a ton on the line. Banners will be raised, and trophies will be hoisted. But the ultimate crown comes weeks down the line, and we will finally have our answer of who makes the field of 14. Today, I wanted to walk down specific scenarios, and give you the likelihood of what happens in each scenario.
With ten automatic bids, there are only four at-large bids on the table. Take a look at my latest bracketology for an overall view of the tournament picture. There is most definitely some separation between the final at-large teams, and teams on the outside looking in, when looking at the latest NPI numbers. What this means, is that we won’t see any last minute shuffling on the bubble, so bubble teams like Trine and UNE most likely won’t be getting passed.
However, if those teams think they won’t have to sweat this weekend, they’re definitely forgetting about something: Bid Thieves. You may have heard of this term from the NCAA Basketball tournament during this crazy month of March. But they are very much a thing in D-III hockey, and this year, we have a couple potential bid thieves lacing them up this weekend. So, let’s get into our tiers of teams, and then I’ll walk through specific scenarios at the end of the article.
Locks
- Curry (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/62.098)
- Hobart (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/62.003)
- Utica (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/60.329)
- Aurora (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/59.704)
Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”
These four teams can breathe easy, as they’re all going to the big dance. The top 3 of Curry, Hobart, and Utica all have unfinished business, and would like to claim a conference title this weekend. If not, they’ll be disapointed, but have the chance to make up for it in the coming weeks. Aurora suffered an upset loss, but they knew they would still have a chance at hardware as well. The Spartans have no need to worry either.
One-Bid Leagues
- NESCAC
- Hamilton (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/56.741)
- Colby (NPI Rank/Rating: #19/53.846)
- Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #30/52.049)
- Tufts (NPI Rank/Rating: #37/50.934)
- SUNYAC
- Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/54.460)
- Plattsburgh (NPI Rank/Rating: #34/51.558)
- MAC
- Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/54.031)
- Stevenson (NPI Rank/Rating: #21/53.257)
- WIAC
- UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #23/53.150)
- UW-Eau Claire (NPI Rank/Rating: #40/50.417)
- MIAC
- St. Olaf (NPI Rank/Rating: #26/52.672)
- Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #33/51.591)
- MASCAC
- Fitchburg State (NPI Rank/Rating: #53/49.035)
- MCLA (NPI Rank/Rating: #80/43.928)
Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”
In this large batch of teams, we have 14 schools from 6 conferences, all vying for that automatic qualifier. Some of these leagues have been pretty chalky, like the MAC. We’ve expected Wilkes vs Hamilton for a while, now. Others have been utter chaos, the MASCAC and WIAC being examples of that. Regardless, all that’s in the past is just that, in the past. The time is now for all of these schools to make history and punch their tickets. It’s the only way in for these schools.
Potential Bid Thieves
- NCHA
- Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/56.738)
- CNE
- Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/56.015)
- NEHC
- Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #24/52.973)
- Skidmore (NPI Rank/Rating: #35/51.546)
- New England College (NPI Rank/Rating: #48/49.404)
Definition: “Win and be joyous, breaking the hearts of others.”
These teams have the ultimate chance to not only play spoiler, but continue their hot streaks into the NCAA tournament. If these teams win their conference tournament, they will effectively burst the bubble of the last team in at that current time. So if you do the math here, that’s a maximum of three potential bid thieves on the table. Now, let’s see who could be affected by these “bid thieves.”
The Bubble
- UNE (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/57.354)
- Trine (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/57.304)
Definition: “Hope and pray for the right results.”
These two programs have no more games to play this weekend, and are hoping the likes of Hobart, St. Norbert, and Curry can take care of business this weekend.
If one of the above three favorites loses, either Trine or UNE is going home. It’s too hard to say who would be first on the chopping block, as the math is so, so close. Realistically, it probably depends on which of the three favorites loses.
If two of the three favorites lose, both Trine and UNE are unfortunately, out of lives, and their seasons will come to disappointing and heartbreaking endings.
The Bubble (sort of)
- St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/58.673)
- Geneseo (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/58.442)
Definition: “Win and in. Lose, and root for one more favorite to win.”
These teams are in a different category, because they’re not only playing for conference titles and automatic bids this weekend, but have an extra buffer of security. That buffer, of course, being Trine and UNE. If Norbert and Genny win this weekend, their bids are locked up. If they lose, they run the risk at being victimized, if three bid thieves win their conference tournament. Now, this is a quite unlikely scenario. But with what we’ve seen in this sport the last week, I would not rule it out entirely.
Now, SNC is in a bit more precarious spot, because if they lose, 1 of the 3 bid thieves will have concurrently got the job done, as Adrian is the Green Knights’ opponent this week. However, if lightning strikes, and the NEHC, CNE, and NCHA all have unlikely winners, it will depend unfortunately, on math.
If both Geneseo and Norbert lose, I can’t say for sure who would be ahead of the other in the NPI. I’d take a guess that Geneseo would be ahead of Norbert, because SNC would be suffering a home loss, where Geneseo would be suffering a road loss. However, I can’t say for sure, which is why they’re both her. What I can say, is that at least one of these two will be dancing. But, they should just both win, and eliminate all doubt.
Scenarios
To sum up…
- If either Endicott, Adrian, or Norwich/Skidmore/NEC wins their conference:
- one of Trine/UNE (depends on math) is going home
- If 2 of Endicott, Adrian, or Norwich/Skidmore/NEC wins their conference:
- both Trine and UNE are going home
- If all 3 of Endicott, Adrian, or Norwich/Skidmore/NEC wins their conference:
- both Trine and UNE are going home
- one of Geneseo/St. Norbert (depends on math) is also going home
One more thing…
- St. Norbert already is playing for a lot this weekend, including a conference championship, and a lock in the NCAA Tournament. But there’s one more massive implication on the line.
- If SNC wins, there’s a chance they could potentially jump Aurora in the NPI. Why is this a big deal?
- The highest seeded west team remaining will host the Frozen Four this year, provided they meet hosting requirements and applied for it.
- While there is a chance these two teams will face off in Round 2 regardless, any potential seed line jump is massive, particularly when hosting NCAA tournament games, and potential championships.
- If SNC wins, there’s a chance they could potentially jump Aurora in the NPI. Why is this a big deal?
Wrap-Up
For fans of a specific team in the running, good luck to your team, or whichever team you need wins from. For those who are impartial, may this be an entertaining and exhilarating weekend for all.
