While the Blugolds took the first matchup handily, UW-Eau Claire and UW-Stout are the top two teams in the WIAC this season, and are set for a collision course on the final weekend of the season.
Welcome back! In case you missed Part 1, I linked it here for you to check out.
If your favorite team wasn’t already covered, let’s continue on breaking down each conference race, starting with the highly competitive NCHA.
NCHA
If you ask most D-III hockey fans, they would probably agree that this is the overall strongest conference in the sport, yet again. The bottom teams in this conference would be much higher up in other league’s standings, in my opinion. At the top, we continue to see a “core four” of elite programs, even though some of them have had their bumps along the way.
Eight of the ten teams make the playoffs in this league, with the top 4 getting a pair of home games in the first round series (and a potential mini-game if needed). There are just two weekends remaining, consisting of four games, as the NCHA get an early start to their postseason. Adrian, currently in first by five points, has not only clinched a playoff spot, but also a home game. Aurora, Trine, SNC, and CUW have also all clinched playoff spots.
Remaining Schedules
The Contenders:
Last weekend was massive in this grouping, with Aurora and Trine earning a split, keeping the razor-thin one point margin between them. Adrian picked up five of six points against St. Norbert with a win and shootout win, which has given their chances to play with home ice through this tournament a massive boost.
St. Norbert and Aurora will be massive favorites the rest of the way, as they need to stockpile as many wins as possible to save their case for an at-large bid. Keep in mind, the Spartans are in much better shape than the Green Knights for a potential at-large. Aurora has earned some major resume wins earlier this season, including four(!) of them over Adrian. However, should AU fall one more time in the regular season, they both will be sweating it out. SNC has very little no margin for error if they want an at-large bid. I would recommend wining out.
Trine has rebounded to put together a pretty nice season after an uncharacteristic 5-3-2 start to the year. There’s a massive series awaiting TU at the end of the season, and if they can sweep Adrian next weekend, they have a shot at the #1 seed, and jumping into at-large bid territory.
Adrian has bounced back from the program’s “down season” last year, if you want to call it that. AC is once again a title contender, and has looked pretty much amazing when playing teams not named Aurora. Keep in mind, Adrian did lose in the non-con to Trine. If they can defeat them one more time, they’ve got a great chance at reclaiming the NCHA crown as long as they don’t mess around this weekend with Concordia.
The Playoff Bubble:
As I said before, this is the grouping of teams that really gets their reputation damaged by having four elite programs at the top of the conference. Some of these teams aren’t quite as good as in years past, but they still have shown they can give the top four programs a great game, and even knock them off from time to time. With CUW locked up in the postseason, three of the remaining five will get a chance to join them.
All six teams here play one of the top tier at some point, with games mixed in against like-minded teams. In regards to the seeding, it looks like all of these schools will be playing their NCHA quarterfinal series on the road, so it’s really picking your poison dependent on who you think you have the best chance to upset.
CUW has close losses to Trine and an upset of SNC, so they do look like the clear fifth best team this season. After a strong start, MSOE has been in a tailspin as of late, going 2-9-1 in their last twelve and very much struggling in most games. Lake Forest hasn’t been stellar this season, but has shown a little life as of late, and will be looking to turn that into more points to hold off some teams.
Marian is the lone team in this grouping who has played particularly well as of late, but someone has to win these games between this grouping of schools. Dubuque and Lawrence have both shown the rare ability to give teams trouble, but they have a lot of ground to make up, so it will be very tough with each team having a powerhouse left on the schedule.
My Call:
- Adrian (Conference Champion & First Round Home Game)
- Aurora (First Round Home Game)
- St. Norbert (First Round Home Game)
- Trine (First Round Home Game)
- Concordia-WI (Playoff Berth)
- Lake Forest (Playoff Berth)
- Marian (Playoff Berth)
- MSOE (Playoff Berth)
- Lawrence
- Dubuque
NESCAC
If the MIAC isn’t the most competitive league on the men’s side, then it certainly is the NESCAC. These teams are insanely close outside of the top spot, as it looks like Hamilton is poised to repeat as NESCAC champs, and maybe, just maybe win the whole darn thing. Not just Hamilton, but Bowdoin is also in strong positioning to potentially make the NCAA tournament as an at-large, so the Polar Bears need to keep winning to stay in the picture.
Just like the NCHA, the top eight teams make it, with the top four getting a home game in the conference quarterfinals. Teams have either five or six games remaining, and it’s crazy to think that two of these teams will not be playing postseason hockey given some of their records. Hamilton is the only team who has clinched a spot thus far.
Remaining Schedules
The Contenders:
As I said above, the top two teams need to keep winning to keep their names in a category for a potential at-large bid. But in terms of the conference championship, Hamilton is going to be hard to catch. Where Bowdoin has a chance to catch them, is they play this Friday night up in Maine.
If Bowdoin can win this one, they have a chance to catch them. However, they’ll need help from others, meaning the Continentals will have to drop points elsewhere, which they’ve done…. very, very, very little. They’ve dropped one point, tying Middlebury in a controversial shootout win.
On that note, Middlebury has shown they can play with HC, and at the very least should be in this category since they do play the Continentals to close the season. However, they do have one fewer game left to be played. They’ll need other teams to step up against Hamilton, and Bowdoin to suffer a few upsets as well if they want a realistic shot at this.
This playoff race towards the cutline is absolutely absurd, with each team in double digit points and no one that far ahead to be considered a team who has a great chance to make it. With three full weekends ahead, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if any team was able to earn a home game. At the same time, I wouldn’t be shocked if any one of these teams missed the conference playoffs as well.
While almost all of these teams have been both relevant and inconsistent enough to knock off one another, most of these teams seem to be winning every other game. If that trend holds, I would assume the standings end up somewhat close to what they are now, but who knows. Based on this year’s history, any team that avoids Hamilton down the stretch probably has a bit of a leg up. That would mean Wesleyan, Williams, Amherst & Trinity. But, Williams is the lone team in this grouping that only has five games remaining.
Trinity has been very much slumping as of late after a midseason rebound, so we’ll see if the Bantams can shockingly escape the basement of the conference. Tufts has shown they are very streaky, so we’ll see how they can finish the regular season. I believe Colby has the highest upside of this group, but they’ve failed to show the needed consistency to put themselves in the top tier.
Amherst and Conn. College have been extremely inconsistent, and it’s anyone’s guess if they can string some wins together to put some much-needed cushion between them and the playoff bubble. I would bet a large chunk of change that these playoff spots and seeding comes down to the final day of the season.
My Call:
- Hamilton (Conference Champion & First Round Home Game)
- Bowdoin (First Round Home Game)
- Middlebury (First Round Home Game)
- Colby (First Round Home Game)
- Wesleyan (Playoff Berth)
- Tufts (Playoff Berth)
- Amherst (Playoff Berth)
- Trinity (Playoff Berth)
- Connecticut College
- Williams
SUNYAC
In the new-look SUNYAC, it’s Hobart’s world, and we’re all just living in it. The three-time defending national champions are running through the SUNYAC debatably easier than they did the NEHC. Oswego has proven to be national tournament contender as well, being ranked the entire season, and sitting pretty high in the NPI as well. Below the top two, there is no doubt the league has slipped compared to where they have been. However, the middle class of this league is still dangerous and can pick off a top tier team at times.
The SUNYAC playoffs have expanded this season, with the top eight all making the postseason. Thus, the top four will get home games in Round 1. Teams have either five or six games remaining dependent on byes and travel. Keep in mind, the SUNYAC uses a 2-point system for wins, rather than other conferences’ 3-point system. So far, no one has been eliminated yet, with Hobart and Oswego clinching playoff berths. Hobart has also clinched a home game in Round 1, to no one’s surprise.
Remaining Schedules
The Contenders:
I’ll be honest: it’s hard to make the case for anyone but Hobart here, even when it’s a top 10 team they’re being compared to. But, with just a 4 point lead, there’s too many games left to rule out the Lakers when they play each other this weekend. Hobart won the first matchup somewhat convincingly, but with the Statesmen going for the record-breaking 63rd consecutive home win, maybe there’s some nerves there. Hobart also has a road trip to a solid Cortland team who I view as the 3rd best team in the SUNYAC.
So, if Hobart somehow drops two and Oswego wins out, we could have co-champs. But, this obviously seems like a pipe dream. Where Oswego should be focused is winning as much as possible, as they are inching towards the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and need to take care of business versus opponents they’re favored against.
The Playoff Bubble:
There’s lots of positioning to be determined here for who could potentially earn a home game, while also looking at who could potentially be left out at the back end of this grouping. Given Hobart & Oswego are travel partners, some teams have the disservice of playing both powerhouses down the stretch, a major knock on their chances. Morrisville, Fredonia, Buff State, and Cortland will have very tough odds to win those contests.
Obviously, Potsdam, Fredonia, Canton, and Buff State have the extra opportunity for points in there, so there’s that. I really like Plattsburgh’s schedule, and if they can play like their talent level suggests they should be playing at, they’ll be in a pretty good spot. Cortland has definite potential to knock off most teams given their skill, but are not playing particularly well as of late.
Skidmore and Buff State have been pretty up-and-down lately, while Canton is showing some fight in the last month or so, when things looked very dire. I also like the Roos’ schedule down the stretch. Potsdam, Fredonia, and Morrisville definitely seem like the bottom tier, but one of these three (at least) will be making the playoffs. I would bet the Potsdam @ Fredonia game on February 13th will be huge. Potsdam is 3-0 against Fredonia this season so far (2 non-con games), but they’re still tied in points for now.
My Call:
- Hobart (Conference Champion & First Round Home Game)
- Oswego (First Round Home Game)
- Cortland (First Round Home Game)
- Skidmore (First Round Home Game)
- Plattsburgh (Playoff Berth)
- Buffalo State (Playoff Berth)
- Canton (Playoff Berth)
- Potsdam (Playoff Berth)
- Fredonia
- Morrisville
UCHC
The UCHC is in a bit of a transition period, as three new teams have returned this conference to a bit of a more “normal size,” albeit with a much different makeup than what this league resembled a few years back. Like last year, it appears to be a bit of a two-horse race at the top between two major programs. However, they both appear to be, on paper, a bit worse than last years’ teams. That doesn’t mean they aren’t going to be dangerous down the stretch, however.
Down the standings, we have a few programs underperforming their historical standards, with some programs taking advantage of that opportunity, stacking more wins than they are used to. In this league, the top six programs will make the postseason with the top two receiving byes, and seeds 3 and 4 getting a home game in Round 1. Teams have either four or six games left depending on byes, and Utica and Geneseo have already clinched a playoff spot. No one has been eliminated just yet.
Remaining Schedules
The Contenders:
The UCHC did itself some favors within its scheduling department. Once again, Geneseo and Utica will be playing for the regular season crown late in the regular season. However, even with a Geneseo sweep, the Knights will need a little bit of help from (most likely) Chatham. Utica’s two games at hand are helping them in a big way at the moment, so if the Pioneers are able to take any points against Geneseo, they’ll be in great shape to win the conference.
However, similar to others, UU should prioritize their at-large case by taking care of business against everyone else. If Utica wins out, there’s a decent chance they can still make the NCAA tournament if they get upset in the UCHC tourney. Geneseo has had some head-scratching results this season, and it’s looking like the UCHC tournament is the only path forward to the NCAAs this year. The Knights just earned a big-time sweep of Chatham to give them a great chance at earning a bye. Now, they’ll have a big non-con game this weekend to hopefully boost their confidence.
The Playoff Bubble:
This is a bit of an odd amalgamation of teams, but maybe I say that because I’m not used to all these teams being a league together just yet. My gut instinct tells me the current playoff teams will be the ones who end up making the postseason, but the fact of the matter is that these teams can all fall to one another, and have shown that this season.
Chatham is a much improved team this season, and with their schedule and current standing, are in a solid position to earn a home game in the postseason. Brockport started slow, but have won 7 of their last 10 and are in a very similar spot to Chatham in the conference.
Albertus and SJF only have two series left, so they have to make the most of their opportunities, as the remaining games seem close to toss-up contests for both. Albertus has much more leeway, with 6 more points than Fisher. SJF needs to right the ship, as they’ve really struggled the past few weeks.
Nazareth has shown they can play with very strong teams throughout the season, but it seems like if teams are ready for how strong of a team they are about to play, it can end very poorly for them. We’ll see if they can catch any more teams by surprise and rack up some points to confirm their playoff spot.
Manhattanville and Elmira are both sitting five points out of a playoff spot, and play each other the final weekend of the season. Hopefully for one of them, that series will mean something at the end of the year. I will say, Manhattanville avoiding the big two the rest of the way lends themselves to potentially make a late-season push for the playoffs.
My Call:
- Utica (Conference Champion & First Round Bye)
- Geneseo (First Round Bye)
- Chatham (First Round Home Game)
- Nazareth (First Round Home Game)
- Albertus Magnus (Playoff Berth)
- Brockport (Playoff Berth)
- Manhattanville
- St. John Fisher
- Elmira
WIAC
The WIAC like many others, is a league going through change. While maybe not as drastic as the others, a school closure and new program brings Beloit to the conversation. Also, say goodbye to the historic mini-game format. Finally, not everyone will qualify for the WIAC playoffs for the very first time, as only five of six will get in. The top 3 will get byes, with 4 and 5 playing each other in Round 1.
As a whole, the league is very unpredictable, and the three teams I would’ve said had the best chance to win the league preseason do not sit in the top tier as of now. Although this is most likely a one-bid conference, these teams are very deep, skilled, and physical, with the playoffs always serving as an absolute war. Each team has just four games remaining. Both Eau Claire and Stout have clinched a spot in the tournament, while UWEC also has clinched a first-round bye. Stout just needs two more points to get there.
Remaining Schedules
The Contenders:
These two programs, while susceptible to an upset loss from a school from the lower tier, have definitely limited those games, and pulled away from the rest of the pack. Both teams have put together tremendous seasons. Eau Claire has the upper hand right now due to a 5-1 win over Stout way back in November. The Blugolds have been on an absolute tear, going 9-1-1 in their last 11 contests. UWEC is looking to return to the NCAA Tournament, and has been climbing up the NPI rankings as of late.
Not many people give Stout a chance in the WIAC most years, but in my opinion, this is one of the most underrated programs in the country, and it’s definitely come to a head this season. The Blue Devils have proven to be one of the better teams out there, and have been ranked for a good bit now in the national poll. While Stout is chasing Eau Claire, I have to imagine it most likely comes down to the last weekend of the season, in what should be a pair of thrillers in Menomonie.
The Playoff Bubble:
While Beloit is the outlier here, and has a lot of work to do to make strides in such a tough conference, I do want to give them their flowers for putting together a full, competitive season on relatively short notice, and credit to them for getting four wins, including a WIAC win at UWRF. This may not sound like much, but it is a very tall task starting up a new program. Realistically and unfortunately, Beloit is pretty close to being eliminated from postseason contention.
With the other three schools, they are all neck and neck. I’m sure the main priority is trying to avoid the play-in game, which in theory would add another win that these teams would need to capture the auto-bid. Make no mistake. Despite the fact these teams are a ways back from Eau Claire and Stout, I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if any of these three won the conference tournament.
Superior and Stevens Point have had relatively disappointing campaigns and although the Yellowjackets looked to be heating up midseason, they’ve gone winless in their last four, and have a very tough schedule the last two weeks. Point has been all over the map this year, but I would say they’re playing a little bit better hockey since the new year, even if the results aren’t always consistent with that.
River Falls is a bit of a wild card here, as their expectations weren’t quite as high as the other Superior or Point, but many think this program’s ceiling should be a lot higher than it has been lately. Regardless, UWRF has been hot as of late, and could definitely play spoiler to Eau Claire this weekend, and as long as they take care of Beloit, could potentially be in play for the #3 seed. Four straight road games could be tricky, however.
My Call:
- UW-Eau Claire (Conference Champion & First Round Bye)
- UW-Stout (First Round Bye)
- UW-Stevens Point (First Round Bye)
- UW-River Falls (First Round Home Game)
- UW-Superior (Playoff Berth)
- Beloit
Once again, thank you so much for taking the time to read these conference breakdowns heading into the stretch run. If you have any questions or comments regarding any of the scheduling or tournaments, the comment box is down below. Keep an eye out for more big-picture tournament talk in the coming weeks!
