Welcome back to women’s bracketology! This week’s prediction is chaotic, to say the least. While this week’s bracket is crazy, I will post an alternate bracket at the bottom of this article. Just so we’re clear, if the NCAA has any integrity, they go with my main projection, I’m about to write about. If they cheap out, they’ll go with the bracket at the bottom of the article.
Current Projections as of 2/10/26
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Western New England (20)
- MAC: Wilkes (6)
- MIAC: Hamline (7)
- NCHA: Adrian (13)
- NESCAC: Middlebury (10)
- SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (15)
- UCHC: Nazareth (2)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- UW-River Falls (1)
- Norwich (3)
- Amherst (4)
- Augsburg (5)
- Williams (8)
- Colby (9)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- UW-Eau Claire (11)
- Concordia-WI (12)
- Endicott (14)
- Saint Benedict (16)
Discussion
- New Team in Field:
- Just like that, the seemingly perennial bubble team, Colby, has hopped back to the right side of the bubble after a huge weekend at Amherst.
- The Mules defeated the Mammoths Friday night, before skating to a tie on Saturday afternoon. Colby enters the field as the #9 seed, according to the NPI, jumping up three spots from #12
- With Colby’s big weekend, the Blugolds have now fallen out, from #9 to #11 after a tough 5-3 road loss against #1 River Falls, blowing a three-goal lead.
- Eau Claire should be in this field at this moment, and the NPI has really given them a raw deal, in my opinion. However, UWEC will have likely two more shots at River Falls. Win one of them, and they’re in a much better situation.
- Just like that, the seemingly perennial bubble team, Colby, has hopped back to the right side of the bubble after a huge weekend at Amherst.
- New Conference Leader:
- #10 Middlebury, despite dropping a road game to Plattsburgh last week, has overtaken the NESCAC points lead after sweeping Trinity, and Amherst’s struggles.
- Other Seed Line Shifts:
- The 20-0-1 Golden Flyers of Nazareth earned their most impressive wins this season, a nail-biting sweep of Elmira, as Naz jumps up two spots from #4 to #2.
- Amherst, after the home Colby loss and tie, falls back to #4 from #2.
- Augsburg jumps up one spot after a sweep of St. Kate’s, from #6 to #5.
- Wilkes continues their hot streak, defeating two more MAC opponents to climb two more seed lines, shifting up from #8 to #6.
- Williams suffers a shutout loss from a reeling Connecticut College squad. They rebound the next day, but it’s still good to bump them down three seed lines from #5 to #8.
- The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out. This gives us 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 UW-Eau Claire.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (4)
- MIAC: (2)
- The NESCAC takeover has officially set in, as Colby’s entrance, Middlebury clinging to the auto-bid, and Williams only falling three spots means the NESCAC is taking up nearly a third of the field.
Seeding
- UW-River Falls
- Nazareth
- Norwich
- Amherst
- Augsburg
- Wilkes
- Williams
- Hamline
- Colby
- Middlebury
- Adrian
- Plattsburgh
- Western New England
Projected Bracket
*alternate, cheaper option at bottom of article
First Round
7) Hamline @ 5) Augsburg
13) Western New England @ 8) Williams
11) Adrian @ 6) Wilkes
12) Plattsburgh @ 9) Colby
10) Middlebury @ 3) Norwich
Quarterfinals
7) Hamline/5) Augsburg @ 1) UW-River Falls
13) WNE/8) Williams @ 4) Amherst
11) Adrian/6) Wilkes @ 2) Nazareth
12) Plattsburgh/9) Colby vs. 10) Middlebury/3) Norwich
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
The Byes
For this version of the bracket, we are going to go with the top three of #1 River Falls, #2 Naz, and #3 Norwich receiving the byes, as earned.
The 9E/4W Split
With Colby in and Eau Claire out, we now have as many schools in the west as we do in one conference out east. This is going to cause some major bracketing problems, as you will see.
Conference Games, Yay or Nay?
This week, we have a very interesting bracket. With most of this stemming from the question if conference opponents can play each other in Round 1. According to the NCAA pre-championship manual, “schools from the same conference will not be paired to play each other in the first contest.”
So even though the NCAA would love nothing more than pair up the three west schools within 40 miles of one another, I’m going to assume that the NCAA abides by this rule, and will not allow a conference game Round 1 between Hamline and Augsburg. Thus, River Falls won’t be hosting an all-west pod.
Abiding by the Rule
If the NCAA is going to split up the two MIAC teams, they most definitely will be splitting up the four NESCAC teams as well. So for starters, let’s match-up the first round teams, according to seed, and make changes afterwards when needed.
- #13 Western New England @ #4 Amherst
- #12 Plattsburgh @ #5 Augsburg
- #11 Adrian @ #6 Wilkes
- #10 Middlebury @ #7 Hamline
- #9 Colby @ #8 Williams
While four of these matchups are nice and clean, the Colby-Williams matchup is a no-go. So, we will have to make a swap. Unfortunately, with so many other games involving the NESCAC, we will have to choose one of the two current games that doesn’t feature a NESCAC school.
Adrian’s Mileage Limit
While in theory, it makes most sense to swap seeds #9 Colby and #11 Adrian, I don’t think that will be the move. With the NCAA seeing dollar signs multiplying by the second with multiple east-west crossover games before the Frozen Four, they do have a bit of good fortune.
#11 Adrian is heading 495 miles to #6 Wilkes, one of the two opponents within driving distance for the Bulldogs. So, we will leave that one alone for the time being.
The Swap
So, if #8 Williams wants to keep their home game, it will have to be #12 Plattsburgh shifted into that game, with the Cardinals visiting Williamstown. On the flip side of that game, #9 Colby will be taking a bit of a further trip than initially intended, which includes a flight to the Twin Cities to face #7 Hamline.
So, after it’s all set and done, we have some interesting matchups to say the least. #13 WNE takes the extremely short trip north to #4 Amherst. #10 Middlebury also will be taking a flight west to #5 Augsburg. Then, the aforementioned games: #11 Adrian @ #6 Wilkes, #12 Plattsburgh @ #8 Williams, and #9 Colby @ #7 Hamline.
Quarterfinal Matchups
With three east/west matchups, we have some things to sort out in terms of potential quarterfinals. If the NCAA is going to pay this much money for flights, #1 UWRF will be getting at least a chance to play either MIAC school. Based on seed, it’s an easier draw for #1 to get the #7 seed over the #5. So, the #9 Colby/#7 Hamline winner will head to Hunt Arena to face the #1 Falcons. That could be a potential long two weeks for the Mules if they can pull of a road win.
With #5 Augsburg on a geographical island, we really don’t have to worry too much about where they go, or who comes there. A flight could happen either way.
#2 Nazareth is next up, and would traditionally get the next most “middle matchup” according to seeds. While that is obviously the #12 Plattsburgh/#8 Williams winner, we have a little more geography to tackle.
We mentioned earlier that #11 Adrian only is within driving distance of two schools, being #6 Wilkes, and #2 Nazareth. While it’s not the best draw according to seed for the Golden Flyers, I think the NCAA takes the sure thing, (zero flights) and pulls the trigger.
Finally, that “middle matchup” of #12 Plattsburgh/#8 Williams, will head to #3 Norwich in the quarterfinal. That is an incredible draw for the Cadets.
Lastly, the pod of four has three close teams and one major outlier. The winner of #13 WNE/#4 Amherst will face off with the winner of #10 Middlebury/#5 Augsburg. Should the Auggies win against the Panthers, we have another pre-Frozen Four flight.
Frozen Four Placement
Based off of seed, the #1 River Falls pod, is placed with the #4 Amherst pod. On the other side of the bracket, the #2 Nazareth pod is placed with the #3 Norwich pod. That means Williams is the only NESCAC team on the right side of the bracket, and Adrian is the only “west” team on that side of the bracket.
Dollars & “Cents”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection. This could take a while….
First Two Rounds:
- First Round:
- 1 flight from Colby to Hamline
- 1 flight from Middlebury to Augsburg
- Can they take a flight together? I know this has happened before…
- Quarterfinals:
- 1 potential flight if Colby defeats Hamline (to UW-River Falls)
- 1 potential flight if Augsburg defeats Middlebury (either for Augsburg to Amherst, or WNE to Augsburg)
Frozen Four:
-If UW-River Falls hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Amherst, Middlebury, or WNE advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket
-If Nazareth hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket (Yes, Colby is over the mileage limit, too)
- 1 additional flight if Augsburg advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket
-If Norwich hosts:
- 1 flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant of bracket
- 1 flight if Augsburg advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket
- 1 flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant of bracket
-If Amherst hosts:
- 1 flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant of bracket
- 1 flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant of bracket
-If Augsburg hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Colby advances from top left quadrant of bracket
-If Wilkes hosts:
- 1 flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant of bracket
-If Hamline hosts:
- 3 flights from all other quadrants of brackets
-If Williams/Colby hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket (Adrian)
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-7(!) flights. Yeah, there are tons of different scenarios here, and I won’t admit how long it took me to work through all of these.
- FWIW, the “cheapest scenario,” or what the NCAA is rooting for, is Norwich hosting a Frozen Four that consists of Wilkes, Colby, and either Amherst, Middlebury, or WNE.
- The “disaster scenario,” or most-expensive one, is Colby beating Hamline, but losing to UWRF, and Augsburg beating Middlebury, but losing to Amherst. Then, UWRF hosts a Frozen Four, with three teams outside of driving distance.
Wrap-Up
Again, this bracket is way out-there, and if the NCAA wants to avoid setting a dangerous precedent, they need to abide by their rules they put in black and white. Otherwise, they need to root for different teams to get in at different seeds. If not, they could have a very tough decision on their hands in about a month.
Again, here is the cheap-out version of this bracket, where they effectively screw the top three teams in our latest poll.
