I’ll be honest.  This week is very, very similar to last week’s projection, with not many changes at all.  There is a bit of intrigue, but for the most part, this will be very similar to what we discussed last week.  However, with February upon us, we do need to discuss what happened last weekend, and the impact it had on the tournament outlook!

Current Projections as of 2/3/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

  • CNE: Western New England (20)
  • MAC: Wilkes (8)
  • MIAC: Hamline (7)
  • NCHA: Adrian (13)
  • NESCAC: Amherst (2)
  • SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (15)
  • UCHC: Nazareth (4)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

  • UW-River Falls (1)
  • Norwich (3)
  • Williams (5)
  • Augsburg (6)
  • UW-Eau Claire (9)
  • Middlebury (10)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

  • Concordia-WI (11)
  • Colby (12)
  • Endicott (14)
  • Elmira (16)

Discussion

  • I already mentioned there isn’t a ton to talk about this week, as we have no new teams entering the field for the first time.
  • Seed Line Shifts:
    • Nazareth jumps one spot to the #4 seed, as Williams falls back one spot to the #5.
      • The Ephs suffered a home tie against a decent Hamilton team, while Naz swept Utica.
    • Augsburg climbs one spot to the #6 seed, as their rival Hamline falls to #7.
      • The Auggies earned an impressive 3-0 week with wins against Bethel and St. Olaf, while Hamline went 1-0-1 against a frisky Saint Ben’s squad.
  • The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out.  This gives us 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 Concordia (WI).
  • Multi-bid Leagues:
    • NESCAC: (3)
    • MIAC: (2)
    • WIAC: (2)

Seeding

  1. UW-River Falls
  2. Amherst
  3. Norwich
  4. Nazareth
  5. Williams
  6. Augsburg
  7. Hamline
  8. Wilkes
  9. UW-Eau Claire
  10. Middlebury
  11. Adrian
  12. Plattsburgh
  13. Western New England

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) UW-Eau Claire @ 7) Hamline

11) Adrian @ 6) Augsburg

8) Wilkes @ 4) Nazareth

12) Plattsburgh @ 10) Middlebury

13) Western New England @ 5) Williams

Quarterfinals

9) UWEC/7) Hamline @ 1) UW-River Falls

11) Adrian/6) Augsburg vs. 8) Wilkes/4) Nazareth

12) Plattsburgh/10) Middlebury @ 2) Amherst

13) WNE/5) Williams @ 3) Norwich

Geographical Breakdown

  • Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
  • The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

The same three teams get byes, as #1 UWRF, #2 Amherst, and #3 Norwich all get an extra week’s rest.

The 8E/5W Split

With no new teams, the split remains the same, and with UWRF getting a bye, we have a decision to make with the other west teams.

Sorting the West Teams & Adrian’s Location

#11 Adrian’s location again makes this complicated, but with #8 Wilkes and #4 Nazareth within driving distance, Adrian will be pushed in a pod with those two schools, along with one other west team.

With #1 UWRF getting the winner of two west teams, there will be a western pod of three.  Based on seeding, it makes most sense for #1 River Falls to play the winner of #9 Eau Claire and #7 Hamline.

That leaves us with #6 Augsburg, who we will be pushing to the #11 Adrian matchup, which will take place in Minneapolis.  Then, the winner of that game would get the winner of the #4 Nazareth/#8 Wilkes matchup.  Yes, Adrian would have to be flown to MSP, but there is potential for another flight should Augsburg defeat the Bulldogs.  It’s not ideal, but the best option available given the teams in this field.

Finalizing Remaining Games

With the only teams left being #5 Williams, #10 Middlebury, #12 Plattsburgh, and #14 Western New England, this becomes a fairly easy exercise.  #10 Middlebury gets a huge break, receiving a home game against their rivals, #12 Plattsburgh.  On the flip side, #5 Williams hosts #14 Western New England

Quarterfinal Matchups

We already know that #1 UWRF hosts the #7 Hamline/#9 Eau Claire winner, and the #6 Augsburg/#11 Adrian winner plays the #4 Nazareth/#8 Wilkes winner at the highest seed remaining.

Given they are the higher-ranked of the two bye teams left, #2 Amherst gets an extremely favorable draw according to seed.  The Mammoths would host the winner of #10 Middlebury and #12 Plattsburgh.

Finally, #3 Norwich hosts the winner of #5 Williams and #14 WNE.

Frozen Four Placement

In a traditional bracket sense, we will pair up the #1 River Falls pod with the #4 Nazareth pod.  On the flip side, the #2 Amherst and #3 Norwich pods will go together.

Dollars & “Cents”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

  • Quarterfinals:
    • 1 flight from Adrian to Augsburg
    • 1 additional flight if Augsburg defeats Adrian (either for Wilkes to Augsburg, or Augsburg to Nazareth)

Frozen Four:

-If UW-River Falls hosts:

  • 2 flights from right side of bracket
  • 1 additional flight if Nazareth, Wilkes, or Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Amherst/Norwich/Williams hosts:

  • 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
  • 1 additional flight if Augsburg or Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant

-If Nazareth/Wilkes hosts:

  • 1 flight from top left quadrant of bracket

-If Augsburg/Hamline/UW-Eau Claire hosts:

  • 2 flights from right side of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-5 flights.

Wrap-Up

While there wasn’t much news at all this week on the bracketology front, there is still tons to play for in the last three weekends of the regular season.  So be sure to tune in next week to see all the latest developments!  Also, keep an eye out for conference-by-conference previews analyzing the remaining schedules!

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