Welcome back to the final bracketology of January! We had plenty of big-time results last weekend that strengthened the tournament cases of many teams we are about to discuss. Others were not quite so lucky. There are also plenty of seeding implications to talk about moving forward. First, take a look at last week’s projection to get a lay of the land.
Current Projections as of 1/27/26
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Western New England (20)
- MAC: Wilkes (8)
- MIAC: Hamline (6)
- NCHA: Adrian (13)
- NESCAC: Amherst (2)
- SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (16)
- UCHC: Nazareth (5)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- UW-River Falls (1)
- Norwich (3)
- Williams (4)
- Augsburg (7)
- UW-Eau Claire (8)
- Middlebury (10)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Concordia-WI (11)
- Colby (12)
- Endicott (14)
- Saint Benedict (15)
Discussion
- New Team in Field:
- Middlebury has rejoined the field after a brief stint on the outside looking in.
- The Panthers earned a pair of razor-thin victories at a quality Bowdoin team, bumping them to #10 in the NPI, and the last team in the field.
- Middlebury has rejoined the field after a brief stint on the outside looking in.
- New Conference Leader:
- With Colby getting swept at home at the hands of Williams, Amherst has taken the NESCAC projection for the first time this season, with the Mules falling out of the field entirely, dropping 6 spots in the NPI to #12, and the second team out.
- Seed Line Shifts:
- Despite just one new team, we have lots of seed line suffling:
- Norwich earned a massive non-conference win at Amherst controlling a large majority of the game, and jumping two seed lines to #3.
- As previously mentioned, Williams earned a major road sweep of Colby, vaulting them up five spots to the #4 seed.
- Nazareth falls a seed to #5, mainly due to getting jumped by the above two schools.
- Hamline and Augsburg battle in an all-time classic series, with each team taking one win at home, although Augsburg’s win came in overtime.
- Despite both these teams being clear title contenders, apparently the calculator didn’t think that much of them, as Augsburg inexplicably fell four seeds to #7. Hamline jumped one spot to #6.
- Wilkes dominated a decent Alvernia squad in a sweep, jumping up two spots to #8.
- Eau Claire fell one spot to #9 after a home sweep of UW-Superior.
- Plattsburgh’s upset home loss to Oswego pushed the Cardinals down to the #12 seed, with Adrian taking their place as #11 after their sweep of Dubuque.
- Despite just one new team, we have lots of seed line suffling:
- The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out. This gives us 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 Concordia (WI).
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- MIAC: (2)
- WIAC: (2)
- With Middlebury in, and Colby out, we have another NESCAC swap.
Seeding
- UW-River Falls
- Amherst
- Norwich
- Williams
- Nazareth
- Hamline
- Augsburg
- Wilkes
- UW-Eau Claire
- Middlebury
- Adrian
- Plattsburgh
- Western New England
Projected Bracket
First Round
9) UW-Eau Claire @ 7) Augsburg
11) Adrian @ 6) Hamline
8) Wilkes @ 5) Nazareth
12) Plattsburgh @ 10) Middlebury
13) Western New England @ 4) Williams
Quarterfinals
9) UWEC/7) Augsburg @ 1) UW-River Falls
11) Adrian/6) Hamline vs. 8) Wilkes/5) Nazareth
12) Plattsburgh/10) Middlebury @ 2) Amherst
13) WNE/4) Williams @ 3) Norwich
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
The Byes
We have a new team in the top 3, as #3 Norwich earns a first round bye, along with #2 Amherst and #1 UWRF.
The 8E/5W Split
With one NESCAC in, and one NESCAC out, we keep the 8/5 split for now.
As stated previously, we can’t necessarily pair up all four non-River Falls west teams in one pod, as Adrian’s geography makes that complicated. The Bulldogs are in driving distance of two east teams.
Splitting the West Teams
What makes the most sense according to seed, is pushing Adrian in a pod with one other west team, and the two east teams #11 Adrian is within 500 miles of: #8 Wilkes and #5 Nazareth. According to seed, the best west team to push to this pod is #6 Hamline.
This is because #1 River Falls would get the winner of the other two west teams, #7 Augsburg and #9 Eau Claire, two higher seeds, meaning that quarterfinal is set, and we’ll see some sort of rematch in Hunt Arena.
Setting the East/West Pod
We will have a #11 Adrian @ #6 Hamline first round game, with the winner facing the winner of #8 Wilkes @ #5 Nazareth. While this could likely cause a flight should Hamline win, it is the best course of action with one west team in a bye position and the other west team being so far east.
Nazareth and Wilkes both get a bit of a tough matchup according to seed for the first round, but it’s the best course of action, unfortunately. Sadly, Wilkes also loses a home game that the #8 seed should have technically earned. The quarterfinal game would be held at the home of the highest remaining seed, with Nazareth having the inside track.
Finalizing Remaining Games
The only teams left to not have a scheduled first round opponent are #4 Williams, #10 Middlebury, #12 Plattsburgh, and #14 Western New England. These matchups are easy, with the Golden Bears making the short trip to Williamstown, and a rivalry renewed in the north country with Plattsburgh heading to Middlebury, with the Panthers luckily getting a home game despite being the #10 seed.
Quarterfinal Matchups
While both the East/West pod and River Falls pod have been set, we need to give #2 Amherst and #3 Norwich their opponents.
According to seed, #2 Amherst gets a great draw, facing the #10 Middlebury/#12 Plattsburgh winner. #3 Norwich gets the short end of that stick, getting the #4 Williams/#13 WNE winner. #3 vs. #4 in the quarterfinal is quite bad, but unfortunately, what I predict the NCAA would do to save money.
Frozen Four Placement
#1 UWRF’s pod goes with #5 Nazareth’s pod, while the #2 Amherst and #3 Norwich pods go together on the flip side.
So, we have all five west teams on one side of the bracket, with loads of rematch potential on the other side, namely a potential Amherst-Norwich Round 2.
Dollars & “Cents”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- Quarterfinals:
- 1 potential flight if Hamline defeats Adrian (either for Wilkes to Hamline, or Hamline to Nazareth)
Frozen Four:
-If UW-River Falls hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Nazareth, Wilkes, or Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket
-If Amherst/Norwich/Williams hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Hamline or Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant
-If Nazareth/Wilkes hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
-If Hamline/Augsburg/UW-Eau Claire hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 1-4 flights.
Wrap-Up
As January winds down, pressure is ramping up as we have even more pressure-packed games upcoming in conference play. We have some big matchups on tap this week, including Adrian/St. Norbert, Hamilton/Williams, and St. Ben’s/Hamline among others. Stay tuned!
