Welcome back to our sixth sneak preview of the D-III women’s hockey tournament. As we approach the latter half of January, we only have about four or five weeks left until conference tournaments begin! Take a look at last week’s projection before reading about the recent developments that went down last weekend!
Current Projections as of 1/20/26
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Western New England (25)
- MAC: Wilkes (10)
- MIAC: Hamline (7)
- NCHA: Adrian (14)
- NESCAC: Colby (6)
- SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (13)
- UCHC: Nazareth (4)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- UW-River Falls (1)
- Amherst (2)
- Augsburg (3)
- Norwich (5)
- UW-Eau Claire (8)
- Williams (9)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Concordia-WI (11)
- Middlebury (12)
- Saint Benedict (15)
- Bowdoin (16)
Discussion
- New Teams in Field:
- Two new conference leaders have jumped into the projected field this week.
- Colby continues to roll, with a sweep of Connecticut College, moving into the field as the #6 seed.
- With Middlebury only taking 1.5 out of a possible 6 points against a tough Amherst squad, the Mules move into the NESCAC lead, edging out Amherst.
- Adrian sweeps Lake Forest this weekend, moving staying undefeated in NCHA play, entering as the #12 seed.
- Concordia-Wisconsin earns an impressive 5 out of 6 points against fellow conference contender St. Norbert, but it’s not quite enough to keep pace with the ‘dogs.
- Keep in mind, Adrian still has to play Concordia and St. Norbert upcoming.
- Colby continues to roll, with a sweep of Connecticut College, moving into the field as the #6 seed.
- Two new conference leaders have jumped into the projected field this week.
- Seed Line Shifts:
- Augsburg won their only game this week vs. Bethel, with the second half of the doubleheader being postponed, moving up two spots to the #3 seed.
- Nazareth suffered their first blemish on their record this season, tying Buff State, and falling to the #4 seed.
- Despite a sweep of a lesser Keene State, Norwich dropped one spot in the NPI rankings to #5.
- Williams suffered a tie to Trinity on Saturday, which along with other results around the country, was enough to move them down from the #6 seed to the #9 seed,
- With CUW falling out of the field, Wilkes and Plattsburgh each take care of business with weekend sweeps, moving up a spot each to the #10 and #11 seeds, respectively.
- The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out. This gives us just 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 Concordia (WI).
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- MIAC: (3)
- WIAC: (2)
- NCHA is knocking on the door here, as an unlikely two-bid league candidate, with CUW being the first team out.
Seeding
- UW-River Falls
- Amherst
- Augsburg
- Nazareth
- Norwich
- Colby
- Hamline
- UW-Eau Claire
- Williams
- Wilkes
- Plattsburgh
- Adrian
- Western New England
Projected Bracket
First Round
12) Adrian @ 10) Wilkes
9) Williams @ 5) Norwich
13) Western New England @ 4) Nazareth
11) Plattsburgh @ 6) Colby
8) UW-Eau Claire @ 7) Hamline
Quarterfinals
12) Adrian/10) Wilkes @ 1) UW-River Falls
9) Williams/5) Norwich vs. 13) WNE/4) Nazareth
11) Plattsburgh/6) Colby @ 2) Amherst
8) UWEC/7) Hamline @ 3) Augsburg
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
The Byes
Augsburg moving up to the #3 seed puts us in an interesting spot, as we have two west teams in bye territory. #1 UWRF, #2 Amherst, and the Auggies get byes.
The 8E/5W Split
With two conference leaders changing hands, we keep the 8/5 east/west split. Where this gets a bit confusing, is that Adrian is so much further east than the other west teams in this field.
With two west teams (UWRF & Augsburg) earning byes, we’re left with three remaining west teams. We can’t make a west pod with three, so as you may have guessed, we are forcing Adrian to play an east team.
Thus, we have the two remaining west teams matching up, with #8 Eau Claire heading west to #7 Hamline.
Adrian’s Destination
When looking at the other east teams out there, #12 Adrian is within driving distance of #10 Wilkes and #4 Nazareth. While the Naz/AC matchup makes more sense from a bracket integrity standpoint, we are going to be matching up #12 Adrian with #10 Wilkes, giving the Colonels a home game in Round 1.
The reason for this, is that this will most likely save the NCAA money in the long run. I predict that the #10 Wilkes/#12 Adrian winner will be flown east to #1 UWRF, regardless of winner.
Had we put Adrian in a pod of east teams, there was a likely scenario River Falls would get an east in team flown in, and another potential flight if Adrian played someone other than Wilkes or Naz in Round 2.
Pairing the East Teams
With the west teams, bye teams, and Wilkes accounted for, we have these remaining schools leftover:
- #4 Nazareth
- #5 Norwich
- #6 Colby
- #9 Williams
- #11 Plattsburgh
- #13 Western New England
When we pair up these teams according to seed, we have #13 WNE heading to #4 Nazareth, #11 Plattsburgh rematching against #5 Norwich, and #9 Williams going to #6 Colby, a matchup we’ll see this weekend.
NESCAC Flip
You might have noticed that we have a no-no. A conference matchup in Round 1, so we will have to shift a few teams. Instead, we’ll send #9 Williams to #5 Norwich in another rematch. On the flip side, #11 Plattsburgh will head east to Maine to face off against #6 Colby.
Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups
We already mentioned #1 River Falls getting the #12 Adrian/#10 Wilkes winner. Obviously, the #8 UWEC/#7 Hamline winner will be taking the short trip to #3 Augsburg.
Out east, we will pair up the two “middle matchups” in a pod, according to seed. So, the #13 WNE/#4 Naz winner gets the winner of the #9 Williams/#5 Norwich winner at the home rink of the highest remaining seed.
Lastly, #2 Amherst faces off against the lone remaining matchup, #11 Plattsburgh vs. #6 Colby.
Frozen Four Placement
The #4 Nazareth pod of four faces off against the #1 River Falls pod. On the other side of the bracket, we have the #2 Amherst pod matched up against the #3 Augsburg pod.
With this setup, we have the chance for an all-west or all-east national championship game, something we haven’t seen in our projections very frequently.
Dollars & “Cents”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- Quarterfinals:
- 1 flight for Adrian/Wilkes to River Falls
Frozen Four:
-If UW-River Falls hosts:
- 2 flights from top right and bottom left quadrants of bracket
-If Amherst hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom right quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from top left quadrant of bracket
-If Augsburg/Hamline/UW-Eau Claire hosts:
- 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
-If Nazareth hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom right quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Colby advances from top right quadrant of bracket
-If Norwich hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom right quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from top left quadrant of bracket
-If Colby hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom right quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from top left quadrant of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-4 flights.
Wrap-Up
As always, thanks for tuning into this week’s projection. What to look out for this week: a massive non-conference matchup mid-week between two current at-large teams in Amherst and Norwich. Also, we have a gargantuan MIAC series between two top five teams: the Pipers and the Auggies. Keep an eye on the Williams-Colby series this weekend as well.
