Welcome back to the fifth edition of bracketology! As the season ramps back up again, the volume of games is starting to increase, and many conferences are getting back into league play. Before taking a look at this week’s projection, review last week’s article to compare and contrast the field!
Current Projections as of 1/13/26
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Western New England (31)
- MAC: Wilkes (12)
- MIAC: Hamline (7)
- NCHA: Concordia-WI (9)
- NESCAC: Middlebury (11)
- SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (14)
- UCHC: Nazareth (3)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- UW-River Falls (1)
- Amherst (2)
- Norwich (4)
- Augsburg (5)
- Williams (6)
- UW-Eau Claire (8)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Colby (10)
- Adrian (13)
- Bowdoin (15)
- Saint Benedict (16)
Discussion
- New Teams in Field:
- Despite a lot of shifting, we just have one new team entering the field, via a conference leader changing hands:
- Endicott is upset by Suffolk, and despite a very close three horse race, Western New England takes over the CNE auto-bid lead by a slim margin in points percentage.
- WNE enters as the bottom seed in the field as the 13 seed.
- Seed Line Shifts:
- Norwich moves up two seed lines from #6 to #4 after a pair of shutout wins over Castleton.
- Williams moves up one spot from #7 to #6. The Ephs defeated Wesleyan easily in both games last weekend.
- Eau Claire suffered a series split against a frisky Saint Mary’s squad, which cost them four seed lines, falling back to #8 overall.
- Hamline’s hot run continues, moving up from the 9 seed (#10 in NPI) to the 7 seed (#7 in NPI).
- Concordia-WI fell a seed, despite sweeping Beloit, likely because of Beloit’s tough start to the season.
- Due to Endicott falling out, Wilkes and Plattsburgh each move up a seed line respectively, to the 11 and 12 seed.
- The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Colby.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- MIAC: (3)
- WIAC: (2)
- Like last week, it’s a bit jarring to see nine different conferences earn bids with two WIAC teams (River Falls; Eau Claire) and an LEC team (Norwich) in the field.
Seeding
- UW-River Falls
- Amherst
- Nazareth
- Norwich
- Augsburg
- Williams
- Hamline
- UW-Eau Claire
- Concordia (WI)
- Middlebury
- Wilkes
- Plattsburgh
- Western New England
Projected Bracket
First Round
11) Wilkes @ 10) Middlebury
8) UW-Eau Claire @ 7) Hamline
9) Concordia (WI) @ 5) Augsburg
12) Plattsburgh @ 6) Williams
13) Western New England @ 4) Norwich
Quarterfinals
11) Wilkes/10) Middlebury @ 1) UW-River Falls
8) UWEC/7) Hamline vs. 9) CUW/5) Augsburg
12) Plattsburgh/6) Williams @ 2) Amherst
13) WNE/4) Norwich @ 3) Nazareth
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
The Byes
The top three seeds all stay the same and earn byes, so #1 UWRF, #2 Amherst, and #3 Naz earn some extra rest in this projection.
The 8E/5W Split
We hold firm with the 8/5 split, with the CNE auto-bid being the only new team to the field this week. With River Falls getting the bye, we are shaping up for two west first round matchups. With where these teams are seeded this week, I do believe the NCAA will pair all four of these schools up in a single pod.
Building the West Pod
When we match up the four west teams by seed, we have the same two cross-state matchups as last week, with two Wisconsin teams heading west to Minnesota. #9 CUW heads to #5 Augsburg, and #8 Eau Claire heads to #7 Hamline. Then, the winners would play at the highest remaining seed.
Pairing the East Teams
With the west teams and bye teams accounted for, we have these remaining schools leftover:
- #4 Norwich
- #6 Williams
- #10 Middlebury
- #11 Wilkes
- #12 Plattsburgh
- #13 Western New England
When pairing up these teams by seed, we don’t have any potential conference or travel issues!
#13 WNE heads to Kreitzberg to take on #4 Norwich. #12 Plattsburgh gets a shot at revenge against #6 Williams. Finally, #11 Wilkes gets another big NCAA opportunity against a NESCAC, traveling to #10 Middlebury.
Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups
With the west pod already accounted for, we’ll go right to the other west team and #1 seed: River Falls. With the 1 seed getting the “middle matchup” via seeding, the Falcons get the #11 Wilkes/#10 Middlebury winner, who would be flying west for Round 2.
Amherst would get the next-closest to the “middle,” meaning the Mammoths would host the winner of #12 Plattsburgh and #6 Williams, setting up a potential season-opening rematch with the Ephs.
Lastly, we have Nazareth getting an extremely tough draw in the quarterfinals, presuming #4 Norwich would take care of business against #13 Western New England. Not ideal, but I don’t think they’re paying for multiple additional flights to split up the west.
Frozen Four Placement
#1 River Falls’ quadrant is paired with the #5 Augsburg western pod, as all five west teams are on one side of the bracket. On the flip side, we have the #2 Amherst quadrant paired with the #3 Nazareth quadrant.
Dollars & “Cents”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- Quarterfinals:
- 1 flight for Wilkes/Middlebury to River Falls
Frozen Four:
-If UW-River Falls hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
-If Amherst/Nazareth/Norwich/Williams hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom left quadrant of bracket
-If Augsburg/Hamline/UW-Eau Claire/Concordia (WI) hosts:
- 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-4 flights.
Wrap-Up
Thanks for tuning into another edition of bracketology. We have some more massive matchups this weekend, including the series of the year in the NESCAC between two top dogs in the women’s game. Please come back for next week’s update!
