With just a select few games remaining in the regular season, the Division III women’s hockey bracket is nowhere close to set in stone.  Where we gained some clarity this past weekend, we also got a conference that threw us a major curveball, turning the tournament projection into a pretzel of sorts.  Before we begin, be sure to review both the updated tournament brackets, and last week’s projection.

Current Projections as of 3/2/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (13)
• MAC: Wilkes (5)
• MIAC: Saint Benedict (17)
• NCHA: Adrian (14)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (8)
• SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (12)
• UCHC: Nazareth (2)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• UW-River Falls (1)
• Norwich (3)
• Augsburg (4)
• Amherst (6)
• Williams (7)
• Hamline (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Colby (10)
• UW-Eau Claire (11)
• Concordia-WI (15)
• Gustavus (16)

Discussion

New Team in Field:

• We have one conference that shook up the entire picture this past week.
  • New Conference Leader:
    • While the MIAC has proven to be the deepest conference in the country, the top two teams had separated themselves for the most part.  Not this past Saturday.
    • Saint Ben’s and Gustavus each pulled massive road upsets of Hamline and Augsburg respectively, meaning the Bennies slot into our projected field as of now, as the #13 seed in the tournament.
      • Both CSB and GAC finished with 32 points in the MIAC, but CSB has home ice due to a regulation win tiebreaker, so they take the spot.
    • Since Augsburg and Hamline both stayed in the projection, that knocked out Colby of our projected field.
      • The Mules stood pat in the NPI rankings after beating Hamilton, but the Bennies essentially stole a bid for the time being.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Amherst played with fire yet again.  The Mammoths escaped Bowdoin in overtime of a NESCAC quarterfinal home game.
    • AC fell one spot, in the NPI, to the #6 seed.
  • Wilkes dominated Alvernia yet again, playing their way into the MAC title game.
    • The Colonels narrowly jumped Amherst for the #5 seed.
  • Williams held off a furious Wesleyan comeback attempt to prevent what could have been a damning loss for the Ephs.
    • Williams was able to jump one spot to the #7 seed.
  • Middlebury narrowly held off Trinity in a very-evenly played game, 1-0 in their NESCAC quarterfinal.  Like Williams, this one could’ve knocked the Panthers out for good.
    • Despite the scare, Midd jumps one spot to the #8 seed.
  • The aforementioned Hamline MIAC semifinal loss to Saint Ben’s put the Pipers squarely on the bubble.
    • Despite outshooting the Bennies heavily, Hamline slipped two seed lines to the #9, further explaining the two above teams’ jump up.
  • Plattsburgh crushed William Smith, moving up one seed line to the #10.
  • Endicott took care of UNE, moving up a seed to #11.
  • Adrian also hammered Lake Forest, moving up one seed as well, to #12.
    • While the three teams above all won, they moved up mainly due to the Bennies’ bid steal situation.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Colby.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • MIAC: (3)
  • NESCAC: (3)
    • After years of playing just as competitively, if not more, MIAC fans can finally say they’re getting the same respect from the calculator that the NESCAC has gotten.
      • (This is not entirely true, because it was a bid-steal situation, and no NESCAC “underdog” school has come close to actually defeating multiple top dogs in the postseason in some time.)

Seeding

1. UW-River Falls
2. Nazareth
3. Norwich
4. Augsburg
5. Wilkes
6. Amherst
7. Williams
8. Middlebury
9. Hamline
10. Plattsburgh
11. Endicott
12. Adrian
13. Saint Benedict

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) Hamline @ 8) Middlebury

13) Saint Benedict @ 6) Amherst

11) Endicott @ 4) Augsburg

12) Adrian @ 5) Wilkes

10) Plattsburgh @ 7) Williams

Quarterfinals

9) Hamline/8) Middlebury @ 1) UW-River Falls

13) CSB/6) Amherst vs. 11) Endicott/4) Augsburg

12) Adrian/5) Wilkes @ 2) Nazareth

10) Plattsburgh/7) Williams @ 3) Norwich

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

The top three teams for over a month now continue to win, though all three were massive favorites this past weekend.  Nevertheless, River Falls, Nazareth, and Norwich continue to sit in bye territory.

The 8E/5W Split

With Colby exiting and St. Ben’s entering, we have finally gotten back to 8/5 status, the first time since early on in the season.  Keep in mind, Adrian acts a pseudo-west teams at times given their geography and distance from other schools.

Western Predicament

We have a situation developing with this bracket, and it revolves around three key components:

• River Falls is the only west team getting a bye.
• Three MIAC teams qualify, but can’t play each other in Round 1 (unless the NCAA screws them).
• As I said before, Adrian is in a bit of no man’s land.

Because of these points, and the fact that I am going to trust the NCAA will not totally screw these MIAC schools, we will have some interesting matchup requirements for these teams.  In other words, we won’t be able to make a western pod, let alone a western matchup, necessarily.

So, we are going to have some flights….

Only “Allowable” First Round Games

Because of all these problems, we will just pair off first round teams by seed like a true bracket would.  Then, we will make adjustments when needed.  When we do that, we get:

• #13 Saint Benedict @ #4 Augsburg
• #12 Adrian @ #5 Wilkes
• #11 Endicott @ #6 Amherst
• #10 Plattsburgh @ #7 Williams
• #9 Hamline @ #8 Middlebury.

In reality, only the first matchup (St. Ben’s @ Augsburg) is not allowed.  So we’ll have to make a switch, even though the other four matchups look good on paper.

East/West Swap

With flights in the picture, I think Adrian @ Wilkes is a matchup the committee would like to keep.  As we stated in the past, Adrian is in drivable distance of Wilkes and Nazareth, so I think that’s a pod they’d like to keep given there are flights elsewhere.

So, that leaves us with the next “most fair” matchup swap, with #11 Endicott now coming to #4 Augsburg, and #13 Saint Ben’s flying east to #6 Amherst.  Now, we can move onto the quarterfinals.

Setting the Quarterfinals

As I said, I think the committee would keep #12 Adrian @ #5 Wilkes, with the winner heading to #2 Nazareth.  It’s not the perfect matchup for the 2-seed, but it can definitely be done to save some cash, and it doesn’t completely break the bracket.

Now we turn our attention to #1 River Falls.  They will get the “most middle” matchup of #9 Hamline @ #8 Middlebury, and a bonus to the committee if Hamline wins, saving them some extra cash.

Then, #3 Norwich would get the next “most middle” matchup winner, between #10 Plattsburgh and #7 Williams.  Not a bad draw for the Cadets, seed-wise.

Finally, the last pod of four will be the #13 Saint Ben’s/#6 Amherst winner versus the winner of #11 Endicott/#4 Augsburg.  That matchup could go a variety of different ways in terms of flights, with an all-Massachusetts quarterfinal, an all-Minnesota quarterfinal, or a combination.

Frozen Four Placement

On the left side of the bracket, the #1 River Falls pod is matched up against the #4 Augsburg pod, meaning all four non-Adrian west teams lie on the same side of the bracket.

On the other hand, once again, we are matching up the #2 Nazareth and #3 Norwich pods.

Dollars & “Cents”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• First Round:
  • 1 flight from Hamline to Middlebury
  • 1 flight from Saint Benedict to Amherst
  • 1 flight from Endicott to Augsburg
• Quarterfinals:
  • 1 potential flight if Middlebury defeats Hamline (to UW-River Falls)
  • 1 potential flight if BOTH Augsburg & Amherst win (Amherst -> Augsburg), OR if BOTH Saint Benedict & Endicott win (CSB -> Endicott)

Frozen Four:

-If UW-River Falls hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional potential flight if Amherst or Endicott advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Nazareth hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Augsburg or Saint Ben’s advances from bottom left quadrant

-If Norwich hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Augsburg or Saint Ben’s advances from bottom left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Augsburg hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional potential flight if Middlebury advances from top left quadrant

-If Wilkes hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Saint Ben’s advances from bottom left quadrant

-If Amherst hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Williams hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Saint Ben’s advances from bottom left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Middlebury hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Saint Ben’s advances from bottom left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Hamline hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional potential flight if Endicott advances from bottom left quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 5-8 flights.  Wow.

Wrap-Up

As always, thanks for tuning into bracketology.  Keep an eye out for the updated bubble watch coming later this week!  Enjoy championship weekend!