We’ve officially made it to the postseason, as conference tournament brackets have been released and we are just two short weeks away from having our national tournament bracket finalized.  Before that, though, we have lots of business to sort out.  Before we get down to business, check out the conference tournament brackets to get a lay of the land, and review last week’s bracketology to set the scene.

Current Projections as of 2/24/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (14)
• MAC: Wilkes (6)
• MIAC: Augsburg (4)
• NCHA: Adrian (15)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (9)
• SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (12)
• UCHC: Nazareth (2)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• UW-River Falls (1)
• Norwich (3)
• Amherst (5)
• Hamline (7)
• Williams (8)
• Colby (10)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• UW-Eau Claire (11)
• Concordia-WI (13)
• Gustavus (16)
• Elmira (17)

Discussion

• New Teams in Field:
  • The Mules have done it again, splitting a road series with NESCAC leader Middlebury, and re-entering the field as the #10 seed, jumping a spot.
    • On the flip side, it is the Blugolds of UW-Eau Claire who are once again knocked out, as they couldn’t capitalize on a big-time opportunity against their rival: #1 River Falls.  UWEC slips one spot in the NPI to #11, and the first team out of our field.
  • It’s been a while, but Endicott is back in our projected field, as they officially capture the regular season CNE crown after sweeping the weekend.  The Gulls are at #14 in the NPI, down one spot from last week, and enter the field as the #12 seed.
    • While Endicott’s wins were expected, it was the WNE Golden Bears that let a championship slip away the final weekend.  After playing Endicott tough all year, WNE slipped up against a feisty Johnson & Wales team, that gave ultimately gave the title to Endicott.
      • With a short memory, WNE still has a chance to get to Endicott if they can regain focus in the CNE tourney.
• New Conference Leader:
  • Besides Endicott, we have another conference lead changing, as Augsburg officially goes back-to-back as MIAC champions.  The Auggies won a pair of close games against a Saint Mary’s team that’s given them trouble in recent years.
    • Hamline finished just one point behind the Auggies, as the Pipers split a weekend series with Gustavus, costing the program their first regular season MIAC title in program history.
      • Despite the disappointment, Hamline still remains in a decent spot, falling a spot to #7 in the NPI, but still in position for an at-large bid.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Amherst rebounded from a puzzling weekend against Trinity with two nice wins on the road against a decent Hamilton team.
    • This was enough for the Mammoths to bump up 2 slots to the #5 seed.
  • Wilkes fell one spot from #5 to #6, after surviving a tough test at Hood in the MAC finale.
  • Williams played with fire, but escaped with two narrow victories over Bowdoin, good enough for a one-spot jump in seeding, up to #8.
  • Middlebury played a tough Colby team, and split the home series, falling one spot to the #9 seed, despite taking home the program’s 17th NESCAC regular season title.
  • Plattsburgh took a decent jump up in the NPI, jumping three spots, good enough for one seed line at the back end of this tournament.
    • The Cardinals now sit as the #11 seed.
  • After sweeping Trine in the NCHA quarters, Adrian fell just one spot in the NPI, but fell two seed lines, now at the #13 seed in our field
    • This is mainly due to Plattsburgh’s rise, and WNE being replaced by Endicott in the projection.
• The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out.  This gives us 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 UW-Eau Claire.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (4)
  • MIAC: (2)
    • The last month of NESCAC play has been entirely too predictable, with lots of splits and ties.  Even with the “big four” slipping up in other games, it hasn’t hurt them enough in the calculator.
      • It’s looking very, very likely we see another 4-bid NESCAC, despite not having a juggernaut team like we’ve seen in recent years.

Seeding

1. UW-River Falls
2. Nazareth
3. Norwich
4. Augsburg
5. Amherst
6. Wilkes
7. Hamline
8. Williams
9. Middlebury
10. Colby
11. Plattsburgh
12. Endicott
13. Adrian

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) Middlebury @ 7) Hamline

12) Endicott @ 5) Amherst

10) Colby @ 4) Augsburg

13) Adrian @ 6) Wilkes

11) Plattsburgh @ 8) Williams

Quarterfinals

9) Middlebury/7) Hamline @ 1) UW-River Falls

12) Endicott/5) Amherst vs. 10) Colby/4) Augsburg

13) Adrian/6) Wilkes @ 2) Nazareth

11) Plattsburgh/8) Williams @ 3) Norwich

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

Nothing new here, the top three of River Falls, Nazareth, and Norwich stay in bye territory for now.

The 9E/4W Split

Eau Claire’s exit mean we are back to being in a bit of a pickle in terms of bracketing.  As always, we start with Adrian, and if it makes more sense to send them east, or west.

MIAC First Round Game?

In the past, I mentioned that the NCAA would try to avoid a MIAC first round game between the Auggies and Pipers, but only at a cost.  Even though it’s in the manual to avoid those intra-conference games, if the price is too high, I think they’d do it.

However, where I think this gets nipped in the bud, is the fact that the best team in the country by a wide margin (#1 UWRF), would be rewarded with a potential matchup with the #4 seed.  While we’ve seen a similar joke of a system that resulted in teams getting completely screwed, I think they’ve learned their lesson.  (Too bad we can’t rewind time to un-screw those teams).

So, I think it makes most sense to separate the west teams, and create some cross-region games in Round 1.  It might get a little bit pricy, but based off some alternate options I came up with, it’s really not all too much more than the alternative.

Adrian’s Drivable Pod

The team we haven’t really talked about is #13 Adrian.  They do have two teams within the 500-mile driving distance out east, in #2 Nazareth, and #6 Wilkes.  As I mentioned above, with the MIAC teams getting split up, I think the NCAA sees this as their chance to save a little bit of money.  So, I believe, our first round game will be #13 Adrian @ #6 Wilkes, with the winner driving to #2 Naz.

Setting the Rest of Round 1

Here’s the remaining teams set to play in Round 1 without an opponent.  Note the NESCAC teams.

• #4 Augsburg
• #5 Amherst (NESCAC)
• #7 Hamline
• #8 Williams (NESCAC)
• #9 Middlebury (NESCAC)
• #10 Colby (NESCAC)
• #11 Plattsburgh
• #12 Endicott

With four games to schedule, I do believe the NCAA will protect the NESCAC teams at all costs, and separate them from playing one another in Round 1.  So, we need to do the best we can in maintaining bracket integrity with that huge caveat.

When pairing non-NESCAC schools with NESCAC schools according to seed, we get:

• #12 Endicott @ #5 Amherst
• #11 Plattsburgh @ #8 Williams
• #10 Colby @ #4 Augsburg
• #9 Middlebury @ #7 Hamline

It’s quite ugly if you ask me, but it’s the system the calculator has given us.  While the Amherst/Endicott matchup makes a ton of sense, there are massive seed discrepancies in some of the other matchups.

Notably, Augsburg, Hamline, Middlebury, and Colby get tougher draws, with the Auggies drawing the shortest straw by far.  Williams and Plattsburgh get a far, far easier path here (according to seeding, only, of course).

Obviously, the intriguing part here is two MIAC vs. NESCAC matchups in Round 1, meaning two flights will be had.

Quarterfinal Matchups

Obviously, we already have the #2 Nazareth pod figured out, so let’s dive into the other quarterfinals:

Since Williams and Plattsburgh get the easier Round 1 draw, it makes sense to send them to #1 River Falls.  However, with the aforementioned flights already set in stone, I think the NCAA will try to get lucky but pushing one of the MIAC/NESCAC matchups to River Falls.  If the MIAC team wins, obviously no additional flights.

So, based on seed, we will have the #9 Middlebury/#7 Hamline winner to Hunt Arena to take on the #1 Falcons.

Based on seed, we will have that aforementioned #11 Plattsburgh/#8 Williams winner heading to #3 Norwich to face the Cadets.  Based on seed, this is an extremely favorable draw for NU.

Finally, we will have our last pod of four, with the #10 Colby/#4 Augsburg winner taking on the #12 Endicott/#5 Amherst winner at the highest remaining seed.  Just looking at those seed matchups is not pretty in the slightest.  If Augsburg escapes that pod, they would have most certainly earned it.

Frozen Four Placement

Per usual, the #1 River Falls pod is placed with #4, which is flanked by #4 Augsburg.  This could prove to be the same national semifinal from last season, with the seeding flipped.

On the right-hand side, we pair up the #2 Nazareth and #3 Norwich pods.  Between those two favorites, they have a combined record of 47-2-1.

Dollars & “Cents”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• First Round:
  • 1 flight from Colby to Augsburg
  • 1 flight from Middlebury to Hamline
    • Can they take the same plane???
• Quarterfinals:
  • 1 potential flight if Middlebury defeats Hamline (to UW-River Falls)
  • 1 potential flight if Augsburg defeats Colby (Endicott/Amherst winner to Augsburg)

Frozen Four:

-If UW-River Falls hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional potential flight if Amherst, Colby, or Endicott advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Nazareth hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Augsburg or Colby advances from bottom left quadrant

-If Norwich hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Augsburg advances from bottom left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Augsburg hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional potential flight if Middlebury advances from top left quadrant

-If Amherst hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant
• 1 potential flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant

-If Wilkes hosts:

• 1 potential flight if Hamline advances from top left quadrant

-If Hamline hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket

-If Williams/Middlebury hosts:

• 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket (Adrian)

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-7 flights.  (It honestly could be much worse based on other mock-ups!)

Wrap-Up

Once again, thank you all for tuning into bracketology.  With less than two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, nerves and emotions are surely high for most.  Keep an eye out for a bubble watch article coming later this week, and enjoy the playoff hockey!