The season is winding down, and we even have one league (NCHA) starting up their conference tournament this weekend.  What that means, is that the intensity is ramping up, seasons are on the line, and the magnitude of the remaining games is massive.  Before we dive in, feel free to remind yourself on last week’s projection.

Current Projections as of 2/17/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Western New England (16)
• MAC: Wilkes (5)
• MIAC: Hamline (6)
• NCHA: Adrian (14)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (8)
• SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (15)
• UCHC: Nazareth (2)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• UW-River Falls (1)
• Norwich (3)
• Augsburg (4)
• Amherst (7)
• Williams (9)
• UW-Eau Claire (10)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Colby (11)
• Concordia-WI (12)
• Endicott (13)
• Cortland (17)

Discussion

• New Team in Field:
  • Colby continues to be the team everyone is talking about, as this week, they shockingly split a home series with Wesleyan, falling to the wrong side of the bubble, falling 2 spots in the NPI, from #9 to #11.
  • UW-Eau Claire is the beneficiary, as the Blugolds swept Beloit, and inched ahead of the Mules in the NPI rankings, entering the field at #10.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Augsburg had a major weekend series with a quality St. Ben’s squad, and despite two nailbiters, the Auggies came out unscathed, with two massive victories.
    • The Auggies moved up a spot to the #4 seed.
  • Wilkes keeps on winning, decimating two more MAC opponents to get up to the #5 seed.
    • I don’t think there’s any question that the Colonels will be making it back to the NCAA tournament.  No one in that league can challenge them.  The question is, how high of a seed could they potentially get?
  • Hamline swept away St. Kate’s, scoring a whopping 14 goals in the weekend series, and jumping up two spots to the #6 seed.
  • With all these teams moving up, someone had to move down, and that brings us to Amherst:
    • The Mammoths played to a tie against a struggling Trinity squad in both games this weekend.  This no doubt hurt Amherst’s chances at a bye, as they fell three spots to the #7 seed.
  • Middlebury went 1-0-1 (yes, more ties!) in a huge NESCAC series against fellow bubble team Williams to strengthen the Panthers’ chances at a regular season conference title.
    • With the series win, the Panthers climb two spots to the #8 seed, while Williams fell two spots to the #9 seed.  These two are still neck-and-neck.
• The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out.  This gives us 3 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 Colby.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • MIAC: (2)
  • WIAC: (2)
    • The WIAC picks up the last bid, for now.  With a massive game this weekend for the Blugolds, this could flip back the other direction, or strengthen the 2-bid chances of the WIAC, depending on result.

Seeding

1. UW-River Falls
2. Nazareth
3. Norwich
4. Augsburg
5. Wilkes
6. Hamline
7. Amherst
8. Middlebury
9. Williams
10. UW-Eau Claire
11. Adrian
12. Plattsburgh
13. Western New England

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) UW-Eau Claire @ 6) Hamline

11) Adrian @ 4) Augsburg

9) Williams @ 5) Wilkes

12) Plattsburgh @ 8) Middlebury

13) Western New England @ 7) Amherst

Quarterfinals

10) UWEC/6) Hamline @ 1) UW-River Falls

9) Williams/5) Wilkes vs. 11) Adrian/4) Augsburg

12) Plattsburgh/8) Middlebury @ 2) Nazareth

13) WNE/7) Amherst @ 3) Norwich

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

With the top three looking dominant, we stand pat with #1 UW-River Falls, #2 Nazareth, and #3 Norwich getting the first NCAA’s weekend to rest.

The 8E/5W Split

With Eau Claire replacing Colby, we have gone back to the 8/5 split, meaning we could split up the west schools a couple of different ways.  Adrian’s geography, as always, is making things a little more challenging.

With UWRF earning a bye, and Adrian not being within driving distance of any other west schools, I think it makes sense to not pair up the four remaining non-River west schools.

First Round West Games

Although Adrian could theoretically drive to Wilkes, it throws off more problems with 3 remaining west teams, and creates even more flights to do so.  Thus, we will push Adrian into a west matchup, even if it requires one flight.

According to seed, we will have #11 Adrian flying to Minneapolis for the third time this season, and taking on #4 Augsburg in a rematch.  Then, #10 Eau Claire heads west to St. Paul to #6 Hamline for yet another rematch.

Setting the Rest of Round 1

With bye teams and west teams accounted for: here are the remaining first round teams without an opponent:

• #5 Wilkes
• #7 Amherst
• #8 Middlebury
• #9 Williams
• #12 Plattsburgh
• #13 Western New England

If we pair up these teams according to seed, we have the following games: #13 WNE heading to #5 Wilkes, #12 Plattsburgh at #7 Amherst, and another rematch: #9 Williams at #8 Middlebury.  As you can see, we have more NESCAC drama.  So we need to make a shift.

Another NESCAC Swap

With conference games not allowed in Round 1, we have to shift who plays who here.  Given there are three NESCAC teams, they all have to be paired up against non-NESCAC opponents.

So, based on seed, we will have #13 WNE at #7 Amherst, a gift of a draw for the Mammoths.  Then, we have #12 Plattsburgh at #8 Middlebury, renewing the rivalry for the third time this season.  Finally, we have #9 Williams at #5 Wilkes, a pretty brutal draw for the Colonels based on seed.

Quarterfinal Matchups

With River Falls obviously being west, it makes sense to pair up one of the west matchups with them.  So, based on seed, the #10 UWEC/#6 Hamline winner will head to River Falls.

After that, we know there is potential flights with the Augsburg/Adrian winner, so we’ll just matchup teams according to seed, since there’s no shifting we can do, anyways.

Thus, the most “middle matchup” of #12 Plattsburgh/#8 Middlebury heads to the best remaining seed: #2 Nazareth. Then, the next most “middle matchup” of #13 WNE/#7 Amherst winner heads to #3 Norwich.

Finally, we will create a pod of four for the last remaining quarterfinal, with the #11 Adrian/#4 Augsburg winner facing off against the #9 Williams/#5 Wilkes winner at the highest remaining seed’s home ice.  Not perfect by any means, but the seeding isn’t bad, here, and there’s a chance for no flight should Adrian and Wilkes both advance.

Frozen Four Placement

When looking at seed, the #1 River Falls pod is on the same side of the bracket as the #4 Augsburg pod, meaning all five west teams are on one side of the bracket.

On the flip side, just like in previous editions, the #2 Nazareth pod and #3 Norwich pod stay together.

Dollars & “Cents”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• First Round:
  • 1 flight from Adrian to Augsburg
• Quarterfinals:
  • 1 potential flight if Augsburg defeats Adrian OR if Adrian defeats Augsburg AND Williams defeats Wilkes

Frozen Four:

-If UW-River Falls hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Wilkes, Williams, or Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Nazareth hosts:

• 1 flight from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Augsburg advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Norwich hosts:

• 1 flight from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Augsburg/Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

-If Augsburg hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket

-If Wilkes/Williams hosts:

• 1 flight from top left quadrant of bracket

-If Hamline/UW-Eau Claire hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket

-If Amherst/Middlebury hosts:

• 1 flight from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-5 flights.

Wrap-Up

As always, thank you for reading, and keep an eye out for extra bubble watch articles coming soon.  This week, we have some massive showdowns in the NESCAC and MIAC, but the headliner is Round 3 between the Blugolds and Falcons.  With the margin for error slipping away for some, time is of the essence.