Welcome back everyone! As we’ve embarked on another season of Division III hockey, we have a fair amount of data that has made its way into the NPI calculator for this 2025-26 campaign. I thought now would be a great time to take a very, very, very early look at the numbers and how potential selections would shake out for the NCAA tournament.
For those who are new here, I’ll give a bit more context on what this series entails. Last season, I published weekly articles that projected the NCAA tournament field as it stood at that very moment. I then do my best with the projected tournament teams to mock up a bracket. Despite selections coming from a calculator, bracketology is always fun to look at, predicting what the committee would do when placing teams. As always, results are subject to change as more games are played.
You’ve heard me reference this “calculator,” and that is the NPI, a new NCAA metric that was implemented for Division III hockey last season, and now is the selection criteria for all team sports at the D3 level. I wrote an NPI breakdown article last year, so check that out if you’re curious about the numbers that go into this calculation.
Before we get into our first projection, I want to post a couple of disclaimers I used last year:
- I did not create the NPI, nor do I agree with it 100% of the time. I am just reporting the data.
- Bracketing is very clearly a hot topic. Usually, it is not the “fairest” outcome, particularly at the Division III level.
- I am often times a major critic of what the NCAA can get away with in D-III. After following these selections for years, I know what the committees are instructed to do by the NCAA, and at what times they can stray from that. Thus, I am predicting what I think the committee would do in this hypothetical, not what I personally would do.
- I have read the championship manuals, and I’ll explain the criteria and rationale behind the predictions when needed!
- I posted the women’s championship manual here for your own reference.
- I’m not going to bat 1.000 on all of these, but I’ll do my best to explain what I think the committee would do. I know these projections can be frustrating to you and your team, but they’re just projections, and I think the more information fanbases have, they can have more rooting interests in games across the country you may not know about.
With all that being said, let’s get into it! (Just a heads up, this first edition may be a little longer than usual, as it might take some extra explaining for clarity’s sake.)
Format
We have some big changes from last season, including another bracket expansion. We are now at a 13-team field, due to the ever-growing list of schools starting women’s hockey. The other major change is tied to all of the conference realignment. We gained one conference and lost one conference, as the NEHC folded, and the Little East launched women’s hockey. However, the LEC is beginning a 2-year waiting period before gaining their automatic bid. (The MASCAC is also still in this waiting period). So, we have one less automatic bid than last season, meaning there will be seven AQ conference champions, with the remaining six spots coming from the highest-ranked at-large teams.
- CNE Champion
- MAC Champion
- MIAC Champion
- NCHA Champion
- NESCAC Champion
- SUNYAC Champion
- UCHC Champion
- At-Large #1
- At-Large #2
- At-Large #3
- At-Large #4
- At-Large #5
- At-Large #6
With only four at-large spots last year, seeing 6 at-large bids has the potential to go a few very different ways. Obviously there is the elephant in the room, being the three conferences who do not get auto-bids: The LEC, MASCAC, and WIAC. That means any team from those leagues, champion or not, who qualify would get an at-large bid. That means some big-name programs, most notably River Falls, (maybe an Eau Claire or a Norwich) would be taking up at-large spot(s).
The other main point of emphasis this year, is that we do not have a predetermined site for the Frozen Four. Usually, in these situations, it goes to the highest remaining seed in the Frozen Four who is eligible to host in their rink. The NCAA previously announced a full-time move to predetermined sites in 2029, but that’s still a few years off.
Current Projections as of 12/3/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Suffolk (23)
- MAC: Arcadia (26)
- MIAC: Augsburg (9)
- NCHA: Concordia-WI (8)
- NESCAC: Middlebury (6)
- SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (17)
- UCHC: Nazareth (3)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- UW-River Falls (1)
- Amherst (2)
- Connecticut College (4)
- Hamline (5)
- Endicott (7)
- Williams (10)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Norwich (11)
- Saint Benedict (12)
- UW-Eau Claire (13)
- Hamilton (14)
Discussion
- Automatic qualifiers are determined by the current conference leader. This does not necessarily mean points in their respective conference standings, but points percentage, as I don’t think it’s fair to punish teams who have played less games.
- As you can see, the last teams into the field via at-large selections have to be ranked fairly high in the NPI with #11 being first on the chopping block, meaning three teams ranked below Norwich at 11, would qualify with automatic bids.
- Keep in mind, it is extremely early, and the data is fluctuating quite a bit still.
- Many D-III women’s hockey fans have been experiencing “NESCAC fatigue” that past few seasons, as the math tends to fall their way most times. The NPI puts 4 teams in (the top 5, no less), with 1/3 of the field coming from the NESCAC.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (4)
- CNE: (2)
- MIAC: (2)
Seeding
- UW-River Falls
- Amherst
- Nazareth
- Connecticut College
- Hamline
- Middlebury
- Endicott
- Concordia (WI)
- Augsburg
- Williams
- Plattsburgh
- Suffolk
- Arcadia
Projected Bracket
First Round
9) Augsburg @ 8) Concordia (WI)
13) Arcadia @ 4) Connecticut College
12) Suffolk @ 5) Hamline
11) Plattsburgh @ 6) Middlebury
10) Williams @ 7) Endicott
Quarterfinals
9) Augsburg/8) CUW @ 1) UW-River Falls
12) Suffolk/5) Hamline vs. 13) Arcadia/4) CT College
10) Williams/7) Endicott @ 2) Amherst
11) Plattsburgh/6) Middlebury @ 3) Nazareth
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
Most of you are probably aware that the NCAA is supposed to avoid paying for flights if at all possible at the D-III level. It’s certainly not fair, but it’s the way it is. There has been some egregious bracketing in the past, most notably the 2024 debacle, putting #1 vs. #3 in a quarterfinal. If schools are more than 500 miles apart, then the traveling school is eligible for a flight. So if at all possible, the committee very much tries to avoid flights, which can lead to some uneven brackets.
This gets me to my next point, as the NCAA has now BLOCKED the NCAA mileage calculator, which it previously provided for “fan transparency” to tell the distance between their member schools. Now, it is leaving fans in the dark, so it can keep this information to itself. Honestly, it seems very fishy to me, and I don’t understand why they would hide this harmless information. If anyone has access to this data, please reach out to me.
Some other core principles from the manual. The committee will try to:
- Avoid conference matchups in Round 1 (Quarterfinals are fine).
- Protect the top three seeds by giving them Round 1 byes, if at all possible.
- Availability of facilities/potential revenue generated from specific locations.
For almost all projections, I will assume the higher seeded team has availability to host in their rink, barring specific circumstances, which I would then mention. For more details on these principles, check out the women’s championship manual here. On the men’s side last year, the NCAA showed a long-awaited shift in their mentality, allowing for cross-region matchups, prior to the Frozen Four. This was welcomed with open arms, and while I think the NCAA is moving in the right direction, I am not expecting a perfectly equitable bracket in all cases.
The Byes
In this new 13-team format, the top 3 teams will get byes, based off the additional “top three ranked teams” protection. In this case, UW-River Falls, Amherst, and Nazareth get the byes.
The 9E/4W Split
Some of you remember the talk of the “split” last season, and if you don’t, here is a reminder. We have a difference of 9 east teams and 4 west teams in this projected field. I think this is a number that we could see come selections in March. With how a couple west teams took care of the east teams in early cross-region play, I could see it becoming a 8/5, or even a 7/6 split potentially. But with how the math works, having only 3 west leagues is a major disadvantage to their numbers, while the east has 7 leagues to intermix non-con play against regularly. So a 10/3 split is also not off the table by any means.
We have an early dilemma right off the bat, as UWRF earned the #1 seed here, but with three other west teams having to play in Round 1, that won’t work cleanly. We have #9 Augsburg, #8 Concordia-WI, and #5 Hamline, and only 2 of these teams can face off in Round 1. In a traditional sense, #9 Augsburg will travel east to #8 CUW, with the winner heading to Hunt Arena in River Falls, Wisconsin. Hamline gets left out here, as a #1 seed should not be potentially facing a #5 in a quarterfinal. We’ll come back to Hamline later.
The Hamline Pod of East Schools
Based off my Google Maps research, (Thanks NCAA!) I tried my best, but it appears all the east schools are within 500 miles, which makes it easy!
However, Hamline is the outlier, meaning as the #5 seed, they’ll get their own pod of east teams.
From there, I just started pairing off the highest and lowest seeded teams to make it as fair as possible. #4 Connecticut College is the highest seed to not receive a bye, so they’ll get the lowest seed in the field: #13 Arcadia. Then, the aforementioned #5 Hamline hosts #12 Suffolk. Yes, that does mean Arcadia has to fly to Minnesota to play the Pipers, but we have no other choice when Hamline doesn’t get a bye.
Remaining First Round Games
In a perfectly equitable bracket these two matchups work swimmingly. #6 Middlebury would renew their rivalry with #11 Plattsburgh, and #7 Endicott would host in-state foe, #10 Williams.
Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups
The left side of this bracket is quite easy, with UWRF obviously getting the winner of Augsburg and CUW due to geography (while maintaining bracket integrity).
As the 4 and 5 seeds, Connecticut College and Hamline earn the right to face off should they both defend home ice, meaning should Hamline win in Round 1, there would be another flight involved.
#2 Amherst gets to play for the Massachusetts state title against the winner of #7 Endicott and #10 Williams.
#3 Nazareth gets the remaining first round matchup winner between #11 Plattsburgh and #6 Middlebury.
Dollars and “Sense”
We do need to talk the figures at the bottom line, and like it or not, that’s something the NCAA strongly considers. In this hypothetical, here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up the cost for. Depending on how you look at it, they have a bit more flexibility/uncertainty with a Frozen Four site that has yet to be determined.
First Two Rounds:
- First Round: 1 flight for Arcadia to Hamline
- Quarterfinal: 1 additional flight if Hamline defeats Arcadia
Frozen Four:
-If UW-River Falls/Concordia-WI/Augsburg hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Conn College/Suffolk/Arcadia advances from bottom left of bracket
-If Hamline hosts:
- 2 flights from right side of bracket
-If Amherst/Nazareth/CT College/Endicott/Middlebury hosts:
- 1 flight from top left of bracket
- 1 additional flight if Hamline advances from bottom left of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-5 flights.
Wrap-Up
If you made it this far, thanks so much for reading! Remember, this is all very, very early, and the goal is to give everyone some context and perspective about the home stretch of the season. With a lot of the explanations already given, the next edition won’t be nearly as long. Again, I am open to hear any questions/comments you have down below!
