2026 Pre-Playoff Bubble Watch: Women

With the playoffs starting shortly, let’s take a deep dive to review what chances teams have at making the NCAA Tournament.  With the regular season complete, lots of data has made its way into the NPI calculator.  It’s time to figure out, who’s in?

There always seems to be controversy when selecting the field, and this year is no different.  The NPI has seen one familiar team separating at the top of the sport, with a very hefty 2nd tier behind them.  Again, will anyone catch River Falls?  Maybe.  But making the tournament, and potentially advancing a game or two is massive for these programs in a sport that’s continuing to grow at a rapid pace.

So, here’s how this is going to work.  I’m going to categorize each team into specific categories and how I see their chances at making the NCAA tourney.  I will then have a breakdown of that specific team’s odds and what needs to happen moving forward.  If there are questions, hypotheticals you’d like to entertain, or any concerns on the system as a whole, please feel free to leave a comment below.

Before I do that, I’m going to post a graph showcasing the schools’ NPI number for the top 15 schools in the country.  This way, we can get a better feel of the ground that is to be made up for some teams.

With River Falls so far ahead, it’s hard to tell just how large these gaps are, so let’s take them out of the equation.  Here, you get a much better idea on the landscape.  On to the tiers!

Locks

• UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/68.255)

Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”

UW-River Falls (24-1-0)

The Falcons are in usual territory, putting together a marvelous regular season yet again, and are looking for their third straight national championship.  They have proven to be the best team in the country yet again, with notable wins over Augsburg, Eau Claire (x2), Endicott, Plattsburgh, Gustavus (x2), and Saint Ben’s.

The lone loss came against rival Eau Claire way back before Thanksgiving, and despite being tested twice more by the Blugolds, they’ve beaten them twice, and are finding their groove for another championship push.  With not much else to say, it sure does seem the Falcons are in line to host their 3rd-straight Frozen Four, as well.  Obviously, they’ll have to win the NCAA tournament games, but it seems like a good bet they will.

This team is in, and the only way they may not get the #1 overall seed is if they shockingly drop both home games against UW-Superior this weekend.  In other words, advance to the WIAC title game, and they should have the #1 seed locked up as well.

Near-Locks

• Nazareth (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/63.763)
• Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/63.384)
• Augsburg (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/62.187)
• Amherst (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/61.089)

Definition: “Don’t screw around this weekend, and you’re fine.”

Nazareth (24-0-1)

I almost included Nazareth in the locks category, as the Golden Flyers have done almost everything asked of them.  While Naz has been a great program since its inception, coach Chris Baudo has his girls playing as well as ever, putting together a stellar record.

Why I won’t officially call them a lock, has to do with the fact that their schedule has been extremely lacking this season.  Their best wins do include Cortland, Elmira (x2), and Hamilton.  While they have some good wins, they have the 68th-toughest schedule of 79 in the country.  Normally, the NPI SOS metric is quite flawed, but I have to agree with it this time.

What remains to be seen, is that if the Flyers do fall in the UCHC playoffs, how much will their NPI be dinged with a schedule that soft.  The shocking home tie to Buff State definitely plummeted their number a good bit, so a loss could be damaging.  Even if Naz loses in the UCHC playoffs, there’s a great chance they make it, but with a couple bid thieves and strong performances by bubble teams, we can’t say for sure that Nazareth holds on.

Nazareth will host a UCHC semifinal this weekend against one of Albertus (#42 in NPI), St. John Fisher (#50), or Manhattanville (#66).  Naz has blown out those opponents 5 of 6 times, with one close win versus Fisher.

As long as Baudo’s bunch makes it to the UCHC championship versus an Elmira, I think they’re locked win or lose.  If Elmira falls, Naz should eliminate all doubt and win the UCHC just in case there are other upsets.

Norwich (23-2-0)

Norwich is similar to Nazareth and that they’ve played a weaker schedule.  Thus, they were very close to lock status, but not quite there, despite their amazing record.  New coach Justin Simpson has the Cadets firing on all cylinders heading into the postseason.

In a brand-new league, the Cadets dominated the competition, going a perfect 18-0 in LEC play.  In the non-con portion of the schedule, they earned notable wins over Amherst, Elmira, Cortland & Oswego.  They fell to Plattsburgh and Williams, but haven’t lost since November 19.

In a weak LEC, I can’t say what a home upset loss would do to their NPI.  Again, no one would predict this happening when you go 18-0 in conference play, but stranger things have happened.  Norwich will host a home semifinal versus one of Castleton (#44 in NPI), Keene State (#60), or Plymouth State (#45) this Saturday.

If they can win that one, I think they’re officially a lock, regardless of championship opponent.  Although there’s no Little East auto-bid, Norwich has proven they don’t really need it this year, as they’ve officially returned to the top tier of the sport, where they belong.

Augsburg (21-3-1)

The Auggies have a bit lower NPI than the two programs above it, but in my eyes, have proven themselves to be as good as anyone in the country not named River Falls.  This year, Augsburg turned from the hunter to the hunted, and successfully defended the MIAC crown, edging out Hamline by a single point.

Augsburg has fended off a brutal schedule (#11 SOS), but still managed to put up 21 wins in the deepest conference in the country.  Wins over Hamline, Eau Claire (x2), Adrian (x2), Gustavus, and Saint Ben’s (x2) headline the resume.  The lone losses were River Falls, Hamline and Gustavus, with a tie to a frisky Scholastica squad.

With locking up the #1 seed, the Auggies will host the winner of Gustavus (#16 in NPI) and Bethel (#22) this weekend in a MIAC semifinal.  Win that, and they are 100% a lock.  Lose, and you slip a little closer to the bubble.  To be frank, even with a loss, I do think they’re in pretty good shape given the two teams’ relatively high NPI numbers.

However, if Augsburg does trip up, the Auggie faithful would become the biggest fans of Hamline to win the MIAC and eliminate a bid thief.  If the Auggies can win the MIAC, they may jump up and grab a bye, so there’s plenty of incentive, aside from bragging rights.

Amherst (16-2-6)

Some may be shocked to see the Mammoths in this category.  Especially when looking at the record compared to the rest.  The fact of the matter is that given that NPI calculation, Amherst is in great, great shape.  Amherst has notable wins over Adrian, Williams, and Middlebury, with decent wins over Hamilton (x2), Oswego, and WNE.

The elephant in the room, or mammoth in the room, if you will, is the absurd amount of ties.  There’s no doubt some good teams in there, but the ties are Williams, Conn. College, Middlebury, Colby, and Trinity (x2).  AC’s losses are to Norwich and Colby.  Nevertheless, Amherst is definitely a quality team, and it appears they are in great shape to make their 4th straight NCAA tournament.

This weekend, Amherst hosts Bowdoin (#29 in NPI) in the NESCAC quarterfinal.  If the Mammoths win, they lock up a bid, regardless of semifinal result.  Lose, and they’ll have some rooting to do outside of their own team.

Win Your League, Avoid the Bubble..

• Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/61.063)

Definition: “Capture the automatic bid.  If not, pray for the right wins around you.”

Wilkes (22-1-1)

Wilkes is most definitely an interesting case, as they have their own category here. The Colonels have built their program with steady year-over-year improvement under coach Dave LaBaff, and after making the NCAAs last year for the first time, have exploded for 22 wins.

The caveat here is that Wilkes has dominated the MAC, a weaker conference, and only played THREE non-conference games, going 1-1-1, featuring a win and tie against Cortland.  The case for Wilkes is very similar to Nazareth.  A loss in the MAC conference playoffs may or may not necessarily be damning, but we just don’t know given the weak schedule (#66 SOS) and incredible record.

Where Wilkes is in much more trouble than Naz with a loss, is that the Colonels’ raw NPI number is much closer to the bubble than Nazareth’s is.  Wilkes gets a home date with Alvernia (#47 in NPI) in the semifinal, and should they win that, a home date with either Arcadia (#25) or Lebanon Valley (#22).

If I’m the Colonels I would eliminate all doubt, win the auto-bid and probably get a pretty good seed and at least one home game.  If they lose to Alvernia, they’re probably square on the bubble, potentially out.  Lose in the MAC title game, and it’s probably a coin toss whether they get in or not, since it would be a bid thief situation.

In a Good Spot

• Hamline (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/60.689)
• Williams (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/60.394)
• Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/60.293)

Definition: “This weekend, win.  Next weekend, win for some extra clarity.  If not, hope for no major upsets.”

Hamline (20-4-1)

The Pipers have put together an outstanding regular season under first-year coach Jake Bobrowski, reaching the 20-win mark for the 3rd time in program history.  The Pipers have gone through a brutal conference schedule with minimal damage, quite the feat.  Notable wins include Augsburg, Endicott, Gustavus, Saint Ben’s and Bethel.  The losses were Augsburg, Eau Claire, Gustavus, and Bethel with a tie versus the Bennies. Not bad at all.

Hamline finished one point short of a MIAC championship, but still is in a pretty good spot here.  However, with the bubble still well within reach, there is still a reasonable doubt they miss out if they can’t get any more wins.

They’ll have a home contest in the MIAC semifinal with CSB (#18 in NPI).  Despite playing another great team, if Hamline loses, they’ll fall closer to the cutline, depending on the other results.  I was shocked how far Hamline’s NPI fell last week, after falling on the road to another good team in Gustavus.  So who really knows what the calculator will spit out.

If the Pipers lose, they’ll need to root for a few NESCAC upsets, with the rest of the favorites winning.  If Hamline wins, they’re in amazing shape.  If its Pipers-Auggies in the MIAC title, I would have to think Hamline is a lock regardless of result.  If Bethel or GAC upsets the Auggies, it’s a bit more cloudy on whether Hamline would 100% be in with a loss, as that’s a bid thief scenario.

Williams (16-3-5)

Williams is putting up the program’s best season in quite a while and has entrenched itself among the big four in the NESCAC this season.  The Ephs went from a cute surprise story early on, to a force to be reckoned with down the stretch, handling nearly all the teams it was supposed to beat on paper.

As always, the NESCAC provided many tests, but Williams rolled over a lot of them with relative ease.  Despite a higher loss and tie total, there are big wins keeping this resume afloat.  Williams has beaten Norwich, Plattsburgh, and Colby (x2), while earning ties against Amherst and Midd.  Despite a few tough losses, and other ties they probably should’ve won, the Ephs put themselves in a great spot entering the NESCAC tournament.

Williams earned the 3-seed in the NESCAC, and will play Wesleyan (#37 in NPI) at home in the quarterfinals.  If Williams falls, they probably are right on the bubble.  If they win, it probably doesn’t boost the resume a ton, but it prevents a bad hit to their resume.  Williams will also be rooting for the other “big four” (Amherst, Middlebury, Colby) to win, to prevent any bad loss potential to their resume.  If the NESCAC favorites all win this week, I think this cements Williams as a lock.

Middlebury (16-4-4)

Middlebury, other than having vastly different program history than Williams, is in an extremely similar spot to the Ephs in regards to their NCAA tournament chances.  As I said, the Panthers are no strangers to playing in big games late in the year, and although they aren’t quite as good as the Middlebury teams we’ve seen lately, this team is still dangerous.

The notable Middlebury wins are against Williams, Plattsburgh and Colby, which for their standards, isn’t the most impressive.  However, they don’t have a bad loss on the resume (Amherst, Endicott, Plattsburgh, Colby) and the only tie they’d probably like back is against Hamilton.

Where Middlebury has a little less margin for error than the Hamline or Williams, is they have potential to play multiple home games.  The Panthers earned the top seed in NESCAC tournament play, and if they can get by Trinity (#36 in NPI) this weekend, the semifinal and final rounds will be held at Kenyon Arena.  In the NPI home wins aren’t as rewarding, while home losses are more damaging.  If Middlebury gets upset by the 8-seed, they’ll fall a lot closer to the bubble.

If Midd wins this Saturday against the Bantams, they’re in much better shape, but aren’t in yet depending on other results.  Say Wesleyan (#37), Bowdoin (#29), or Hamilton (#20) pull an upset, than Middlebury gets the lowest-ranked team in the semifinal.  Basically, a team that if they beat Middlebury, it could potentially drag down the resume.  Similar to Williams, if all the favorites win, Middlebury will be a lock.

Bubble Trouble

• Colby (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/58.893)
• UW-Eau Claire (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/58.787)

Definition: “Do everything in your power to win out.  Otherwise, hold your breath until the finish line.”

Colby (16-6-1)

Death. Taxes. Colby women’s hockey being on the bubble.  This team continues to live on the razor’s edge year in, year out, being the last at-large team into the field 3 of the last 4 years, and tracking to do it again.

The Mules were in much more dire straits last Friday night, before rebounding and knocking off Middlebury on the road to jump back to the right side of the bubble.  Despite a small 23-game season, the Mules have two big wins, that are apparently outweighing some not-so-great losses.

While they’ve beaten Amherst and Middlebury once, while also tying Amherst, they also have surprising losses to Wesleyan, Cortland, and Bowdoin, with not a ton of signature wins outside of the big two.  Nevertheless, Colby is in position to make a run here.

Colby hosts Hamilton (#20 in NPI) in the NESCAC quarterfinals.  If they lose, they’ll be sweating out Selection Sunday.  A win is huge and will give them some more wiggle room.  A potential semifinal victory against one of big four would probably lock up the Mules barring complete chaos.  A hypothetical road semifinal loss to Middlebury would not kill them by any means, but they’ll have serious rooting interests come the final weekend of play.

UW-Eau Claire (18-7-0)

Eau Claire is another team that has found itself in this position a number of times over the past decade or so.  However, lately, they haven’t gotten the good fortune they needed.  The lack of a WIAC auto-bid has killed them in the past, but I think a potential WIAC postseason title would be enough this year.

New coach Jarrad Vroman has put together a very strong campaign in Year 1 at UWEC.  Although an 18-7 record isn’t too far from what some expected, the wins they have over River Falls and Hamline are as strong as anyone’s in the country.

Given four of their seven losses are against the top two teams in the polls, I think it’s a bit harsh they’re on the outside looking in.  Granted, the St. Olaf and Saint Mary’s losses aren’t the best, but they split those series, and those teams have given other contenders hell this season.

It’s a similar story for the Blugolds to make the dance.  Defeat the bogeyman.  They’re the only team to take down UWRF this season, and they’ll need to do it again to have a shot.  While not an auto-bid situation, it basically acts as one, because with how the NESCAC has littered the right side of the bubble, most of these teams will likely play against one another.  That means UWEC needs a big, big move to unseat one of them.

This weekend, the Blugolds host UWSP (#53 in NPI) for a pair in their semifinal series.  Obviously, they can’t lose either one of those, but if they can get through and have their chance at the big dog, they can’t miss, or it’ll be another early end to the season for UWEC.

Needs a Miracle for an At-Large

• Plattsburgh (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/58.674)
• Concordia-WI (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/58.639)
• Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/58.533)

Definition: “Hope and pray.”

Plattsburgh (18-6-1)

Plattsburgh is in the program’s darkest stretch in its history, which is hilarious seeing the records they’ve put up lately.  However, expectations remain high in upstate New York.  The season started terribly for PSU, but the Cardinals have been much better as of late, going 13-1-1 in their last 15 games.

The SUNYAC has surprisingly been quite mediocre this season, with not many big tests coming for the Cards in conference play.  Luckily for them, they’ve challenged themselves and then some in their non-con schedule.

Plattsburgh has two signature wins in Norwich and Middlebury, with a couple decent wins against Cortland and one against Oswego.  The losses are mostly forgivable, coming from River Falls, Middlebury, Endicott, Williams, Elmira.  The loss and tie to Oswego is the only thing holding them back from being squarely on the bubble right now.

Luckily for the Cardinals, they are the runaway favorites to capture the SUNYAC auto-bid and return to the NCAA tournament for the 14th time in a row.  In all honesty, it would take a miracle for Plattsburgh to get an at-large bid.

The best-case scenario would be beating Canton in the semi, and then if they have to lose, Cortland would be the better pick.  However, given the home loss factor, they would need multiple NESCAC upsets, Eau Claire losing again, or maybe a Wilkes slipping up.

Concordia-WI (24-2-1)

CUW has put together the program’s best season after showing tremendous improvement in previous years.  The Falcons have dominated their season, tying the other Falcons (UWRF) for the most wins in the country thus far.  Last week, they swept Aurora to advance to the NCHA semifinals.  The issue with this team, is their schedule.  The bottom of the NCHA brings absolutely nothing to Concordia’s resume, as the Falcons shockingly have the #74 ranked strength of schedule out of 79.

It will almost certainly need to be the automatic bid for CUW, but I did settle on a 1% chance for them.  Playing a pretty decent St. Norbert (#26 in NPI) team might be enough to bump them up a bit given how bad the current schedule is, and there’s no shame in a potential road loss to Adrian in the title game.  They’d also need mass chaos around them.  Don’t bank on it.

Adrian, the other big dog in this conference, has virtually zero chance as an at-large due to a weaker semifinal opponent than Concordia, and a potential home loss in the title game versus a road loss.  Again, almost zero percent, so shoot for the automatic bid just to be safe.

Endicott (19-4-2)

Endicott like the above two teams needs mass chaos around it to even have a chance at the at-large bid.  Like Plattsburgh, they are the favorite to win their league tournament, so the odds they play in the NCAA tourney are somewhat strong.  But to have an at-large, tons needs to go their way.

While the CNE doesn’t have any other big-name teams, WNE is definitely approaching that status.  However most of the bottom of the CNE can still put up a good fight, so there aren’t many horrible teams weighing down the Gulls’ schedule.  Endicott also has a Middlebury win and tie and Plattsburgh win helping their case.  Also, two of their losses are to River Falls and Hamline, so the schedule has been pretty tough in my eyes.  This is one I don’t necessarily agree with the math, because I feel that resume-wise, the Gulls should be stronger.  They only have one bad loss in my eyes, but I don’t make the calculations.

If…. this is going to happen for EC as an at-large, they need mass NESCAC chaos around them.  But, the best path would be a semifinal win against UNE (#39), and a loss to WNE (#19) at home.  Again, not ideal, and the Gulls should plan on winning out to be safe, but there is a slight, slight chance.

Auto-Bid or Bust

• Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #15/58.439)
• Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/56.223)
• Elmira (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/56.212)
• Saint Benedict (NPI Rank/Rating: #18/56.005)
• Western New England (NPI Rank/Rating: #19/55.825)
  • and many more…

Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”

Unfortunately, these teams don’t have enough tread left on the tracks to get the job done via an at-large bid.  So, it will bid steal or bust for these select teams.  Most of these teams will get their shot, and we could even see them make deep runs, but there is still plenty of pressure-filled moments to be capitalized upon. What’s so strange with this season, is I can’t 100% say that any conference is certainly a one-bid league.  While the CNE, MAC, NCHA, SUNYAC and UCHC are all looking likely, we don’t know for sure.

Unfortunately, given the state of the calculator and the whopping amount of NESCAC teams still getting into the tournament, we could see many auto-bid only situations.  If you are sick and tired of the NESCAC littering the field, I think you’re rooting for bid thieves like Eau Claire (obviously), Elmira, Saint Ben’s/Gustavus or maybe Arcadia/LVC.  If you are a NESCAC fan, this is business as usual, and they continue to run this sport.

Wrap-Up

Thank you all for reading along our bubble watch analysis.  Hopefully, I could provide some insight as to how the final few games could impact the NCAA Tournament picture.  I will be sure to update you all next week with a final look at the potential field and what bid thieves could potentially remain.

As I did last year, I have to give some sort of prediction, right?  Based on my rough thoughts, I will go chalk this year.  I think the current teams that are in get the job done: Norwich continues their unbeaten streak in LEC play, earning at at-large. Nazareth holds off Elmira in the UCHC.

The Auggies and Pipers both make the MIAC title game, locking up spots.  Finally, the “big four” in the NESCAC all win their quarterfinal, giving them all more quality losses to go around.  The only big question is if Eau Claire can take down River Falls, and while I certainly think they can, you can’t pick against this team at home right now.  I’ll take the favorites to defend home ice as well with Wilkes, Plattsburgh, Endicott, and Adrian taking the auto-bids.

As of now, I predict the field looks something like this: (auto-bids in parentheses)

1. UW-River Falls
2. Nazareth (UCHC)
3. Norwich
4. Amherst (NESCAC)
5. Augsburg (MIAC)
6. Wilkes
7. Middlebury
8. Williams
9. Hamline
10. Colby
11. Plattsburgh (SUNYAC)
12. Endicott (CNE)
13. Adrian (NCHA)