Grow out your beards, because playoff hockey is here.  The million dollar question in a sport with so much parity, is who will get the chance to play for a national title?  There is hockey left to be played, but with the games whittling down, there’s not much time to make a dent on those NPI ratings.

In this article, I’m going to categorize each team into specific categories and how I see their chances at making the NCAA tourney.  I will then have a breakdown of that specific team’s odds and what needs to happen moving forward.  If there are questions, hypotheticals you’d like to entertain, or any concerns on the system as a whole, please feel free to leave a comment down below!

Before I do that, I’m going to post a graph showcasing the schools’ NPI number for the top 26 schools in the country.  This way, we can get a better feel of the ground that is to be made up for some teams.

With Hobart miles ahead of the others, it’s hard to tell just how large these gaps are, so let’s take them out of the equation.  Here, you get a much better idea on the landscape.  On to the tiers!

Locks

  • Hobart (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/65.937)

Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”

Hobart (25-0-0)

When looking at the above graphs, it’s all you really need to know about the Hobart Statesmen.  Pursuing their fourth straight national title, they’ve rolled through their schedule with ease, only getting truly tested a handful of times.  While they have gone unbeaten, it’s no secret the SUNYAC has not been the most difficult league to transition into this season.  Hobart’s overall strength of schedule according to the NPI is #72 in the country out of 91.

The notable wins for the Statesmen include Utica (x2), Oswego (x2) and Middlebury, thrown in with some other decent SUNYAC wins such as Skidmore and Cortland.  Hobart’s massive lead in the NPI means they can trip up in the first round of SUNYAC tournament play, and still almost certainly get the #1 overall seed.  They’ll start off tonight (Wednesday) against Fredonia (#82 in NPI).  If they get through the Blue Devils, it’ll be one of Buff State, Plattsburgh, Canton, or Cortland in the semis.

There’s really not much to say here other than just how dominant this program has become under coach Mark Taylor.  I do think there’s a number of teams that can really challenge Hobart, but can anyone actually knock them out when it matters?  Time will tell.

Hobart has shown no problems in their two wins over Fredonia this season, and they’ll start their postseason push with the Blue Devils on Wednesday.

Near-Lock

  • Hamilton (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/59.361)
  • Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/58.685)

Definition: “Don’t screw around this weekend, and you’re fine”

Hamilton (18-4-2)

Hamilton was darn close to lock territory a couple weeks back, but when star player Luke Tchor went down with injury, the Continentals have not been able to close out games like they’re used to.  After a 15-1-2 start, HC has gone just 3-3 in their last six games, including an 0-2 final weekend that probably prevented their lock status.

Regardless, the Continentals are putting together a fantastic season, and have shown all year they are one of the teams to beat in the country.  A second-straight NESCAC regular-season title shows that.  Hamilton has put together a strong resume, with wins over Utica, Bowdoin, and several other strong NESCAC teams.

Despite the slow finish this team has shown it can win close games, and I would bet they put together a strong NESCAC tourney.  Even if they don’t Hamilton should be fine unless there’s extreme chaos around them.  They open up at home against Conn. College (#45 in the NPI), and if they win that, they’ll get a potential semifinal and final at home.

Like I said, even with a loss to the Camels, they should be more than fine to qualify for the field.  But, if I’m Hamilton, I want that bye more than ever with some injuries piling up.  If they can keep that #2 seed, it would be massive.

Endicott (19-3-3)

Endicott is a very interesting case, as they are clearly a good team, have good wins, but have shown some lapses this season against a less-than-stellar schedule (#69 SOS).  Again, I am pretty high on this team, and think they are somewhere around a top five team.  However, the NPI is extremely high on the Gulls, and they’re in great position to make a return trip to the NCAAs after missing out last season.

The Gulls’ best wins are UNE, Bowdoin, Tufts, and Curry (x2), while their losses have come against Suffolk, UNE, and a bad WNE team.  They also have three ties, coming against Suffolk, Roger Williams, and Johnson & Wales.  Again, it’s a good resume, but I’m a bit surprised they’re #3.

Regardless, the 2nd-seeded Gulls will host a CNE semifinal on Saturday against either Suffolk (#23 in NPI) or Johnson & Wales (#60), so in theory, the Gulls could get tripped up based on this season’s results.  If EC advances to the title game, I think they’re locked in.  Even with a title game loss to UNE, they’re all set.  There’s even a small chance that if Suffolk is the semifinal opponent, they could afford a loss.  But I wouldn’t take that chance.  Anyways, Endicott is in a great spot at the moment.

The top two teams in the NESCAC, Hamilton and Bowdoin split their season series, with each school defending their home ice.

Good Shape

  • UNE (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/58.167)
  • Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/58.110)

Definition: “Will most likely be fine regardless, but a win removes almost all doubt.”

UNE (20-5-0)

Per usual, Kevin Swallow’s UNE Nor’Easters have put together a great campaign in 25-26, getting back to the 20-win mark after falling just short the last two years.  UNE is looking to make its 6th NCAA tournament appearance in the last 8.  They also brought home the CNE regular season title for the first time since 2022.  They’ve also won 10 straight heading into the postseason.

The resume is good, but not perfect.  Their big wins include Curry (x2), Endicott, and Suffolk.  The losses are to those three teams, along with Colby and Tufts.  Again, with so many CNE games, we still don’t know everything about UNE.  However, we have a pretty good idea the talent level and what to expect.

Saturday, UNE will host either Curry (#19) or Nichols (#57) in the CNE semifinal.  A win puts them not quite into lock territory depending on other results, but into a very good position.  Obviously if Curry knocks them off, it’s not the end of the world.  But with so many teams on their tail in the NPI rankings, UNE needs that win to not be overly nervous on Selection Sunday.

With home losses being punished more, even a title game loss to Endicott could prove costly if there’s chaos in other leagues.  However, I think a Curry win could help offset that potential loss.

Adrian (20-6-1)

Adrian had their “down year” last season that included 18 wins, and now they’re back to being…. well, Adrian.  That includes another NCHA title and 20-win season, and the Dogs are looking for more after two dominant quarterfinal wins against Lake Forest.

AC has had ups and downs, but has only lost to two teams all year, going 1-2 against Trine, and a shocking 0-4 against Aurora.  However, in the brutally tough NCHA, they have accumulated some impressive wins as well.  Notable wins include Utica (x2), St. Norbert, and Trine.  Big wins nonetheless.

This weekend, Adrian has a huge home semifinal game against their personal demon: Aurora (#9 in NPI).  I can’t overstate how huge this game will be, but if Adrian can win Saturday, I’d have to think they’re a lock regardless of championship result.  Lose, and it gets extremely interesting given their place on the bubble.  I think there’s a chance they can still get in with a loss, but it’ll be an extremely sweaty selection day if that’s the case.

Shockingly, Aurora has beaten Adrian all four times this season, but Edition #5 of Spartans-Bulldogs will decide both schools’ postseason fate.

Right Side of the Bubble

  • Bowdoin (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/58.010)
  • Salve Regina (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/57.954)
  • Utica (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/57.858)
  • Aurora (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/57.755)

Definition: “In okay shape at the moment, but could use some help to feel safer”

Bowdoin (17-6-1)

Here is the category of teams where it will be insanely close down the stretch, and it could be hundredths of NPI points deciding the last few bids.  Bowdoin has been ranked much-higher as of late, but after a disappointing season-ending loss to Tufts, Bowdoin slipped a bit in the rankings, and has a tough NESCAC tournament ahead of it.

Bowdoin has put together a great season with wins over Hamilton, UNE, Gustavus, and Middlebury among other solid NESCAC schools.  They’ve dropped their fair share of NESCAC games, as well as falling to the infamous Salve Regina.

The Polar Bears have a home contest with Amherst (#27 in NPI) in the NESCAC quarters.  I’d like to think two wins will get Bowdoin into the field, but one win may or may not be enough.  It’s so tough to tell with so many uncertainties on the bubble.  With potential opponents in Tufts (#20) and Middlebury (#18) being ranked pretty high in the NPI, I would lean in saying that a 1-1 NESCAC tournament gets the job done barring complete chaos.

Salve Regina (20-4-0)

The flavor of the day in Division III hockey is none other than Salve Regina, an independent school for this year, before re-joining the CNE next season.  Shockingly for some, they are very much in the mix for making the NCAA’s with an incredibly puzzling resume.

Let’s get the gross stuff out of the way first, as SRU has the #87 SOS out of 91.  They also only have 20 games that are countable for the NPI, as four of their games were against D-II opponents, so they don’t count.  Their “countable” record is actually 17-3-0.

On the bright side, Salve is definitely a good team, and has notched some nice wins, including Bowdoin, Anna Maria, and Tufts.  They’ve also killed some bad teams as well, showing they are on a different tier.  Regardless, being an independent, their schedule is finished.  So now, it’s up to the calculator, and how other teams perform.  We’ll see where it ends up, but I think the fact so many teams will be taking an additional loss bodes well for Salve, but there are still a lot of numbers to crunch.

Utica (17-7-1)

Despite the insane 0-4 start against elite opponents, Utica has righted the ship and found themselves right around the bubble with two weeks to go.  The Pioneers are looking to get back to the Frozen Four, and will have that chance upcoming.  A UCHC auto-bid is the preferred route, but there is a somewhat decent chance they could get an at-large if they are to fall.

What’s so shocking about this team is that they truly don’t have many elite wins.  They’ve beaten Oswego, Chatham, and a decent Nazareth team twice.  The losses are more than respectable, including Adrian (x2), Hobart (x2), Geneseo (x2), and Hamilton.  Those are as strong of losses as any.

While Utica played many of these tough games close, they don’t have the wins to be considered safe at this point.  This weekend, they’ll host one of Brockport (#54 in NPI), Albertus (#34), or Nazareth (#22) in the UCHC semifinals.  Utica has to win that one, or they’ll have very little chance to get in.

If Utica could pick their opponent, I’m sure they’d take Naz, to help boost their resume a bit.  Should they win the semifinal, a potential Geneseo championship loss isn’t damning, but a lot is out of their hands at that point.  I think Geneseo is strong enough that it wouldn’t ding them a ton, but UU would fall right near the cut line one way or the other.

Aurora (22-4-1)

Aurora is the epitome of “good wins vs. bad losses” because the Spartans have some of both.  Personally, I think the fact this team is near the cutline is a complete joke.  Aurora has more than earned the fact to at least be in the top 5 or 6, but alas, the calculator doesn’t think so.

Aurora has elite wins, defeating the aforementioned Adrian FOUR times, with other wins against the other NCHA powers, St. Norbert, and Trine.  They also have tripped up against SNC and Trine, but also lost to Lawrence and MSOE, with another tie to MSOE.  Granted, Aurora blasted MSOE in both quarterfinal games to help get that taste out of their mouths.

As I said before, the semifinal trip Aurora will take to Adrian is the game of the week, and the season most likely comes down to this for the Spartans.  A loss doesn’t surely eliminate them, but they’ll need loads of help.  A win, and they immediately go into a great spot.  A potential title game loss wouldn’t necessarily be the most damaging, either.

Geneseo played spoiler, upsetting Utica for a series sweep earlier this month, reviving the Knights’ NCAA hopes.

Needs Help or an Auto-Bid

  • UW-Stout (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/57.383)
  • St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/57.048)
  • Babson (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/56.922)
  • Geneseo (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/56.782)

Definition: “Find a way to win your conference.  If not, you better make it to the final, and get tons of help along the way.”

UW-Stout (19-5-1)

Despite surviving one of the most physically demanding schedules in the country, Stout won their first WIAC title since 2011, and earning the #1 seed in their conference tournament, going 15-3 after a bit of a slower start.  The Blue Devils are one of the best stories in the country, so we’ll see if they can finish the deal.

Stout has many notable wins, including St. Norbert, Saint John’s, Eau Claire (x2), St. Olaf, and Saint Mary’s.  Also, they have several more decent wins against WIAC and MIAC foes.  None of their losses or ties are bad ones, however, which is what gives them their #10 NPI rankings.

This weekend, the Blue Devils host Stevens Point (#41 in NPI) in the WIAC semifinal, newly minted without the infamous mini-game.  So, it’ll be single-elimination.  If Stout loses, they’re done.  A win, and they have a shot.  Obviously, the auto-bid is the preferred method, but an Eau Claire (#24) loss wouldn’t be the worst, even at home.  If they do lose that title game scenario, they’ll need just about all the other bubble teams to lose.

St. Norbert (19-6-2)

Where I question the NPI SOS metric is when I see St. Norbert’s schedule.  There’s no way the Green Knights’ schedule is only ranked the 26th most difficult in the country.  SNC has wins over Aurora, Trine, Eau Claire, and St. Olaf.  Not a bad collection, but the losses and ties are almost all to good teams.

SNC has lost to Adrian, Aurora, Stout, Eau Claire, St. Olaf, and CUW with ties to Adrian and Trine.  Again, they’ve lost to almost exclusively quality teams, with some good wins to match.  Unfortunately, they just don’t have quite enough good wins to be on the right side of the bubble.

This past weekend, the Green Knights routed Lawrence in their two-game series to advance.  Now, they have a home game against Trine, where they’ll try to beat the Thunder for the first time this season.  Win, and they have a window for an at-large with some help.  Lose, and their season is over.

Ideally, as much as it pains SNC fans, losing to Adrian would be a better scenario, as it would be a road game.  SNC is having another outstanding year, but if they can’t get to the NCAA’s, it’ll be seen as a bit of a disappointment.

Babson (19-4-2)

Babson has entered the new Little East Conference and put together an impressive season under coach Jamie Rice.  Similar to other teams, Babson’s schedule has not been the best, but it’s certainly not as poor as some of the other contenders.

Babson has notable wins over Norwich, Plymouth State (x2), Williams, and Fitchburg (x2), with a shocking pair of losses to NEC, as well as losses to Norwich and Tufts.  They also have ties with USM and Amherst.

Babson was in a better spot a couple weeks ago, but they’ve lost 2 of their last 5 games, as they’ve fallen to the other side of the bubble and lost control of the LEC conference title, as Norwich took it home instead.  In the LEC tournament, the Beavers will host a semifinal against either PSU (#37 in NPI) or Castleton (#49).  Like St. Norbert, Babson must win the semifinal to even have a tournament pulse.  If they lose, they’re done.

Obviously, a championship loss needs to be to Norwich if the Beavers have any shot at an at-large.  Again, they’ll need quite a bit of chaos around them in order to get that chance.  Babson could save a lot of hassle by winning the potential rubber match against Norwich.

Geneseo (17-7-1)

Geneseo is close enough to the bubble where they have a shot at an at-large bid, but it won’t come easy.  The Knights, at times, have looked left for dead this season, but you have to give the team credit for how they’ve bounced back to become a contender.  While they looked to be turning a corner, they did just suffer a bit of a shocking loss, so we’ll see how they come out in the playoffs.

The Knights have numerous good wins, including Utica (x2), Oswego, Salve, Chatham (x2), and Nazareth.  There are also some less-than-deal defeats though, including Manhattanville, Elmira, and Brockport.  Those combined with a few more reasonable defeats have left a resume that is good, not great.

Geneseo will either get Chatham (#17 in NPI), Nazareth (#22), or Albertus (#34) in the UCHC semifinal this Saturday.  If I’m a Geneseo fan, hope for Chatham to boost that resume even further with another quality win.  A road loss to Utica in a potential title game is nothing to sneeze at, and depending on other results, could be enough to get them in.  Of course, additional help would be needed.

In the program’s best season in years, UW-Stout will try to get the rubber match on rival Stevens Point this weekend, as they’ve split the first three meetings, 1-1-1.

Needs a Miracle for an At-Large

  • Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/56.243)
  • Trine (NPI Rank/Rating: #15/56.153)

Definition: “Hope and pray.”

Oswego (17-6-2)

With these schools, there is very, very little chance they can get in without the auto-bid.  But given how bunched up these teams are with their raw NPI numbers, it is not impossible.  Oswego had a ton of hype going into the year, and started off hot, but has fallen apart as of late.  There really isn’t a ton there, resume-wise to push them any higher in the rankings than where they are.

Oswego has nice wins over Geneseo, Cortland, and Skidmore (x2).  But that’s about it.  There really isn’t much there.  They have a plethora of okay wins, but not a many high-level ones.  The Lakers have gone just 3-4-1 down the home stretch, with some puzzling losses along the way.

That being said, Oswego still is clearly the 2nd-best team in the SUNYAC, and if utter destruction happens to the teams above them, there’s a chance that they could win out, lose to Hobart in the title game (causing minimal damage), and they could conceivably end up around the bubble.  Don’t hold your breath, but there’s a remote chance.  They’ll start off SUNYAC tournament play tomorrow against Buff State (#63 in NPI), which won’t help much.

Trine (18-7-2)

Trine will have their work cut out for them if they’re to go back-to-back in qualifying for the NCAA tournament.  However, they’ve shown they’re capable of playing with just about anyone.  They have big wins over Adrian (x2), and Aurora, with close losses to Aurora and SNC, while also tying the Green Knights.  Despite laying a few eggs along the way, there’s no doubt that Trine is an extremely hard team to play against.

If the Thunder can defeat St. Norbert on the road in the NCHA semifinal, they will take a NPI jump, no doubt.  The question is, how high?  If that boosts their resume a good bit, with lots of help around them, a road championship loss to Adrian won’t hurt too badly.  Again, the chances are very slim, but this team definitely is capable of knocking off the big dogs when it counts.

Trine has battled St. Norbert hard this season twice, but has nothing to show for it. Both teams will be playing for their tournament lives this weekend in Ashwaubenon.

Auto-Bid or Bust

  • Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/55.597)
  • Chatham (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/55.701)
  • Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #18/55.414)
  • Saint John’s (NPI Rank/Rating: #21/54.944)
  • Anna Maria (NPI Rank/Rating: #25/54.385)
  • Neumann (NPI Rank/Rating: #32/52.377)
    • And many more….

Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”

Unfortunately, these teams are way too far back in the NPI and have too many bodies to climb to get back into having a chance at an at-large bid.  So, they better win their league tournaments if they want to dance.

So, I can confidently say, that these conferences will be one-bid leagues:

  • MAC
  • MASCAC
  • MIAC

Despite two electrifying seasons, the Johnnies and Gusties will only reach the NCAA Tournament with a potential MIAC automatic bid.

Wrap-Up

Thank you all for reading along our bubble watch analysis.  Hopefully, I could provide some insight as to how the final few games could impact the NCAA Tournament picture.  I will be sure to update you all next week with a final look at the potential field and what bid thieves could potentially remain.

What’s all this analysis without a prediction?  As I tend to do (boring), I’ll take most favorites to win out, including a Hamilton over Bowdoin NESCAC final.  I do think UNE holds off Endicott for the CNE, and there isn’t much chaos, allowing for Salve to hang in there.  I do think SNC finds its mojo, and gets to the title game, and picks off Adrian to secure the auto-bid, while Adrian keeps an at-large.

Just based on quick-thinking, here’s what I’ll go with: (auto-bids in parentheses)

  1. Hobart (SUNYAC)
  2. Hamilton (NESCAC)
  3. UNE (CNE)
  4. Bowdoin
  5. Utica (UCHC)
  6. Endicott
  7. Adrian
  8. Salve Regina
  9. St. Norbert (NCHA)
  10. Babson (LEC)
  11. Saint John’s (MIAC)
  12. UW-Eau Claire (WIAC)
  13. Anna Maria (MASCAC)
  14. Stevenson (MAC)

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