With the games nearly upon us, I wanted to take some time to dive into some interesting facts about the tournament teams, and then provide some predictions for this week’s games! I’ve compiled a list of team stats about each of these schools and provided them below, along with the big story for all fourteen tournament teams. Below the bye teams, I will preview all six First Round matchups this weekend. First off, I’ll remind you of what this year’s bracket looks like, and then, I’ll provide you with my team sheets and analysis.
The Byes
Saturday Schedule
2:00 PM CT- #11 Saint John’s (17-6-4) @ #7 Aurora (23-5-1)
7:00 PM ET- #10 Norwich (18-5-4) @ #6 Salve Regina (20-4-0)
7:00 PM ET- #13 Williams (12-13-2) @ #4 Utica (19-7-1)
7:00 PM ET- #14 Neumann (17-8-2) @ #3 Hamilton (19-5-2)
7:00 PM CT- #9 UNE (21-6-0) @ #8 St. Norbert (21-6-2)
7:00 PM CT- #12 Anna Maria (20-5-2) @ #5 UW-Stout (21-5-1)
#14 Neumann @ #3 Hamilton
In a rare NESCAC vs. MAC matchup, we have two teams that lived up to their preseason hype, and winning their conferences. However, one got the job done in their respective league tournament, and the other did not, floundering a bit down the stretch.
Hamilton has put together a strong campaign after last season’s breakout, proving themselves to be the class of a very strong NESCAC. This team has played a difficult schedule quite well. In just the 3rd NCAA appearance for the Continentals, Hamilton is hoping it can fire on all cylinders and use their home ice to get them to the first Frozen Four in program history. Last season, Hamilton upset UNE before falling to #1 seed Curry, an experience that will likely help them this season.
Neumann, like many MAC teams, were up against it when battling Utica in the UCHC for so many years. But now that the MAC has its own automatic bid, there is a void that could be filled if someone can string together dominant seasons. Even after losing their coach last season, this veteran group was the best team in the MAC all season long, getting to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011. Neumann cares about hockey, has a unique geographical perspective that could help them down the stretch. Now that they’ve capitalized on this season, it could propel them back to where the program once was. Heck, this program has a national championship in its past. A win this weekend would do wonders for the program’s reputation.
Common Opponents:
Given the extremely full conference schedule of the MAC (21 games), we don’t have much of a chance for common opponents, but we got lucky and do get a pair.
- Both teams hosted Nazareth for a non-conference game, with Hamilton tying, 2-2, and Neumann dropping the game, 4-1.
- Both teams also visited fellow tournament team, Utica, with Neumann falling 4-1, and Hamilton winning 3-1.
Against common opponents, Hamilton went 1-0-1, while Neumann went 0-2-0.
Final Look:
There’s no doubt that Hamilton is the big favorite here, but Neumann is playing with house money to some extent. The Continentals will have a lot of pressure on them in this spot to take care of business, and they haven’t exactly been lighting it up as of late. So, it could be a difficult switch to flip.
Obviously, what sticks out to me as the key factor, is the fact Neumann takes more penalty minutes than anyone in the country (but one team), while Hamilton is one of the most-disciplined teams around. While you think this may be an advantage for Hamilton, Neumann’s PK is quite strong, that it can generate some momentum for them if they’re successful.
I think this game comes down to how healthy Luke Tchor really is, and if Hamilton can get off the mat and recapture some of the magic they found earlier on in the season. Tchor is the engine that drives the Continental offense, and they’ll need him to get the momentum started in this tournament. Hamilton has to rebound, dropping three of four down the stretch, because the Knights will be ready to go. Neumann is going to be physical, and I do see this being a pretty close game up until the end.
#13 Williams @ #4 Utica
One of the oldest programs in the nation, Williams has done the unthinkable, pulling off three upsets to get to this spot for just the 2nd time in program history. Despite the record and low seed, this team has proven it has what it takes against quality teams, battling them tough all season long, in close wins, losses, and ties. In their only previous NCAA appearance ten years ago, Williams won a first round home game against Salem State, before dropping a nail-biting quarterfinal to Geneseo. Despite their seed, this team conceivably could pull a pair of upsets to get to the Frozen Four, and we can’t say we would be that shocked.
Utica is a fascinating story, as they have proven to be one of the “new bloods” of the sport, given their investment, culture, and support for the game. The program has six consecutive NCAA appearances, and two years ago, they got back to the Frozen Four, for the second time in program history, and first since 2013. They followed it up last year with a second straight Frozen Four trip, but let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers, as they had the juggernaut Hobart team on the ropes, and in their own city. Nevertheless, Hobart completed the threepeat of an insane effort to break the hearts of the Pioneer faithful.
Now, Utica has a chance to get enact revenge, with the Frozen Four in their home barn. But, they can’t get ahead of themselves. Just because they got over the proverbial hump last year, doesn’t mean those wounds have completely healed for this fanbase. The Pioneers have to be ready to go, in a season that has seen some ups and downs for coach Gary Heenan’s bunch.
Common Opponents:
Given a pretty close geographic proximity, we do see a good deal of common opponents between these two:
- Utica went 1-2-0 against their new rival, Geneseo (5-3 home loss, 4-3 OT road loss, 4-1 UCHC title win at home). Williams lost 7-3 to the Ice Knights at home.
- Williams went 2-1-0 against tournament team Hamilton (4-3 OT loss at home, 4-3 win on the road, 5-4 OT NESCAC semifinal win on the road). Utica dropped a 3-1 home contest to the Continentals.
- At home, Utica defeated Oswego 5-3, while Williams tied the Lakers on the road, 5-5.
Overall, against common opponents, Utica went 2-3-0, while Williams went 2-2-1. So on paper, these results are close, even if they performed better against different opponents.
Final Look:
There are many Utica fans who are terrified of this matchup. It may just be PTSD from early exits in the past from other great Utica teams. But there’s no doubt in my mind that the Pioneers won’t be taking the Ephs lightly. This is especially true given the run this team went on to even get to this spot.
Williams is disciplined and extremely battle-tested, so the moment won’t be too big for this team. Neither team has a great penalty kill, so whoever can neutralize the opponent’s man advantage may have the leg up. Obviously, the crowd has to be mentioned, as Utica has one of the best home ice advantages in the entire country. Williams has fought hard on the road this season, but they’ve seen very little crowds that will compare to what they’re about to see Saturday night.
Given what this program has done in recent years, Utica has more than earned my trust, so I do think they’ll get the job done. However, I could see this one having a bit of a “feeling out” period to start the game before Utica’s forecheck settles in. If I’m Williams, just try to get through the first tied, and then you’ve got a shot, and Utica starts to think a little bit.
#12 Anna Maria @ #5 UW-Stout
This will definitely go down as the most surprising matchup of Round 1. Not just because the two teams are so far apart distance-wise, but that the expectations that these two would both make the tournament, with one being a relatively-high seed. Nevertheless, I am pumped for this one, as it’s a phenomenal story for both teams.
Anna Maria, in just its 2nd year in the MASCAC, is a relatively new program that has shown massive strides in recent seasons. So much so, that they even received votes to win the MASCAC in the preseason poll. However, it says a lot more when they can go out and do it, unseating last year’s winner in the process. Despite the schedule not being the toughest, they had minimal slip-ups, and this is a monumental moment for a building program.
In the always-competitive WIAC, UW-Stout is often the “forgotten child” of sorts. In a league with massive fanbases and alumni, with multiple national titles from different schools, Stout gets overlooked at times, as their history is not quite as old and definitely not as storied as some of their rivals. However, the Blue Devils are rewriting history this season, capturing both the WIAC regular season (2nd ever, 1st outright) and tournament title (1st ever). Stout returns to the NCAA tournament for just the 3rd time, with the previous two trips coming in 2008 and 2009. They bowed out in their first games to St. Thomas and St. Scholastica in those years, so regardless of what happens this weekend, someone is getting their first-ever NCAA win. If Stout can pull this off, there’s no doubt that this team can make a potential run, as they’ve been under-ranked for most of this season, in my opinion.
Common Opponents:
As expected, with two programs over a thousand miles apart, we don’t have any crossover play. Credit the NCAA for scheduling these games in the first round, but it would be nice to have more than a calculator decide seeding and selection when so many teams do not play any common opponents whatsoever.
In fact, I believe this is the first west team Anna Maria will have ever played in the program’s history, and I believe the first east team UW-Stout will play since playing Utica and Curry back in the 2013-14 season.
Final Look:
On paper, UW-Stout should be the favorite here, as they are far more battle-tested, and have proven themselves time and time again. Not to mention, they have an astonishing 13-1 record on home ice this season. But in a one-game sample size with everything on the line, who should win on paper means virtually nothing.
Stout is a bruising bunch to play against, as they have been for years, and we’ll see if Anna Maria can handle the physicality Saturday night. The Amcats have been elite defensively this year, and I do see this one being a low-scoring affair. I do think the first goal will be absolutely massive in this one. If AMC gets it, I like their chances of a potential upset bid. But if Stout can get the opening-score, they’ve proven they are more than capable of winning the close game, as we’ve seen all season long.
#10 Norwich @ #6 Salve Regina
This game is such a wild card, that it honestly seems unpredictable, between two teams that have shown many flashes of good, with a few duds as well. Regardless, these programs each provide a great story, and together, make for quite the First Round game. Salve is such a mystery. The program had some success in the past, making two NCAA tournaments in the program’s early stages, including a 2nd place finish in 2018. But recently as this summer, the program looked dead. The former coach parted ways, leaving last-minute, with no conference, no schedule, and a litany of players in the portal. Well, fast forward six months, and this team is the #6 team in the nation, and hosting a playoff game this weekend. How, you may ask, did they get here?
It certainly helped hiring coach Jay Punsky, who did a bang-up job, getting the roster back intact, and getting a 24-game schedule thrown together. It also helped the CNE threw Salve a bone, as they’ll be getting the invite back into the league next season. However, that 24-game schedule has been the talk of the town. With only 20 “countable” games against D-III competition, and a lack of marquee opponents, SRU is a very hot topic on whether they deserve to be here. Regardless, they are here, talented, and probably a bit ticked off. This team has blown out many of the lesser teams on its schedule, and I can’t wait to see how they look against another quality team after close to five weeks off.
Norwich, on the other hand, is one of the premier schools in D-III hockey. 21 NCAA appearances and 4 national titles headline their program resume. This year has been anything but ordinary for the Cadets, however. A new conference and a new coach have given the program a much-needed boost back to the national landscape. While no one is considering them a favorite for a national title this season, it speaks wonders to the turnaround job this staff has shown, and the talent that this roster has. The schedule hasn’t been the absolute strongest, but they are more than capable of going stride for stride with some of the best. Nevertheless, this is a big moment for the program and working back towards that championship standard.
Common Opponents:
Not a bunch here, given Salve’s limited schedule, but there is a couple of Little East teams the Seahawks did play:
- Norwich swept Keene State, winning 3-1 at home, and 6-2 away, while Salve won a road tilt at Keene, 6-0.
- Both Norwich and Salve swept Southern Maine in two-game series. Norwich won 6-3 at home, and 2-1 away. Salve won both a home and away game 4-0
In games against common opponents, Norwich went 4-0, while Salve went 3-0, so not a ton to take from this other than Salve looked a little more impressive in those games, score-wise.
Final Look:
This one is very hard to predict, as both of these teams are very good, but beatable in my eyes. The unknown factor with Salve having not played in over a month is a major, major question mark. The “rest vs. rust” debate can be analyzed until we’re blue in the face, but truly, no one will know until the puck is dropped at St. George’s Ice Rink.
Both teams are obviously capable of putting together impressive performances, but I would have to think that Norwich being in high-leverage games as of late helps their case. I don’t have much to say here, but I do think this is a low-scoring game, and I could very well see overtime on the horizon.
#11 Saint John’s @ #7 Aurora
No, the Spartans are not a one-off. Aurora, being a relatively new program, was wrote off by some as being more of a flash in the pan than a sustainable success story. I would argue this program just appears to be getting started. AU has put together another fantastic campaign, working on the defensive side of the ice much more efficiently than last year. The Spartans have revenge on their mind after letting a Frozen Four get away from them last season. After defeating Eau Claire in Round 1, they blew numerous leads to Geneseo in the quarterfinal which has haunted them all offseason. Now is their chance to make things right, and finish the job. The skill is there to make it happen, and vault this program towards bigger and brighter things.
Saint John’s used a magical end of the season to return to the NCAAs for the first time since 2013. SJU overcame a difficult MIAC schedule, relying on their physicality, veteran leadership, and overall team depth to get back to the biggest stage. In their previous six appearances, the Johnnies have gone one-and-done in all but one tournament. Back in 1997, SJU defeated Elmira, before losing to the dynasty of Middlebury in the semifinals. For what it’s worth, the Johnnies did defeat Norwich in what was the third place game that year. While it will be a tough road for SJU to get back to the Final Four, this team is extremely composed, and are never out of any game. After coming back from a 3-0 hole in the MIAC title game, Aurora can’t be caught sleeping, even if they start quickly.
Common Opponents:
With much fewer west teams than there are east, there’s a high likelihood to see a good number of common games when two west teams match up in the NCAAT:
- Aurora won a neutral-site game vs. Augsburg, 4-1, while the Johnnies swept the Auggies, winning 5-3 at home, and 6-1 on the road.
- Both teams went 2-0 against Hamline, with SJU winning 4-2 at home, and 6-2 on the road. The Spartans swept an away series at Hamline, winning 4-1, and 5-3.
- Aurora swept a home and away series with Marian, winning 5-4 in overtime on the road, and winning 6-2 at home. Saint John’s tied Marian on the road, 4-4.
- Saint John’s impressively swept a home series with Trine, winning 3-2, and 4-2. Aurora split a pair of away games with Trine, losing 4-2, while winning the next day, 2-0.
With quite a bit of common ground between the western foes, Aurora went 6-1-0 against like opponents, while Saint John’s went 6-0-1, showing just how close these teams are.
Final Look:
While Aurora has done so much to its game this season to be a more well-rounded, disciplined team to pair with its high-flying offense, I see this one being a bit of a barnburner. Saint John’s is most comfortable with an extremely physical, high-scoring affair. Aurora, deep down, I think is most confident it can win that way, especially when they have the skill advantage.
Jon Howe may be the equalizer in the skill gap, however. Howe has performed brilliantly this year, as the Johnnies defense did give up numerous grade-A chances, with the goaltending being the difference in crucial games down the stretch. I do think the top-line talent of Aurora could be too overwhelming for the Johnnies, including the likes of Hassan Akl and Landry Schmuck. However, doubt the Johnnies at your own peril. For those tuning in, don’t blink. I think goals could be scored in bunches in this one.
#9 UNE @ #8 St. Norbert
This is the narrative that you may have heard me use before: it’s blue blood vs. new blood. One school that has stood the test of time, winning multiple national championships and holding a high standard for the better part of over 30 years. The other one looks to be on a similar track, but is much earlier on in the build, and establishing themselves as a consistent title contender year-over-year. Both are led by outstanding coaches, and I can’t wait for this one.
SNC’s accomplishments speak for themselves: now 23 NCAA appearances, 5 national titles, 12 Frozen Fours, 17 regular season league titles, and 18 league tournament titles. The Green Knights are perhaps the most successful program in D-III history, but have had a bit of a sour taste in their mouths as of late, putting in great seasons, but coming short of the ultimate goal. Their last natty came in 2018, with their last four NCAA appearances ending in the quarterfinal round. This team is more than capable of getting back to the Frozen Four, but I thought that in previous years too. They have a tough path to get there.
UNE is an up-and-coming program, looking to make the leap towards a national championship. They’ve made six of the last eight NCAA tournaments, with two Frozen Fours in 2022 and 2023. Last season, UNE was upset at home in Round 1 by Hamilton, and for this program’s momentum to continue, a First Round win over a team like St. Norbert would be crucial. While historically, they can play with anyone, a win would give this program the credibility it needs to consistently be considered a national title favorite.
Common Opponents:
Despite the hype surrounding this game, we don’t have any cross-over games to mention for either team. Again, wild to think we are letting a calculator do this by itself.
In terms of recent east-west play, we saw St. Norbert drop a heartbreaker to Utica in the quarterfinals last year. Given the sheer number of SNC tournament appearances, we’ve also seen the Green Knights play the likes of Salve, UMass Boston, Colby, and Trinity within the last decade.
UNE did play an NCHA team in the national tournament recently. In one of the wildest games we’ve ever seen, the Nor’Easters dropped a heartbreaker to Adrian in the national semis back in 2023. While I expect a lot from this First Round matchup, I don’t know if we’re getting 15 goals…
Final Look:
This is the most intriguing game of Round 1, in my opinion. Personally, I have these two teams pegged as top six teams, and I’m shocked that the NPI has worked out in this way, but here we are. Obviously, with the behemoth that is Hobart on deck, neither team can get too far ahead of themselves. But there’s something to be said that whoever comes out on top here will have a boatload of momentum going into the quarterfinals.
I think how this game is called will be a major indicator of how this one goes. If the refs swallow the whistles, I think it favors St. Norbert. I do think UNE can play that type of game, but SNC’s 5v5 play and forecheck is their bread and butter. If it’s called more tightly, I think UNE’s special teams have a decent advantage there. Either way, this should be an insane environment between two teams that could legitimately win the entire thing.
