As the calendar has flipped to February, we can finally say, playoff hockey returns this month. But before that, we have two or three (depending on the league) thrilling weeks of hockey remaining with so much left up for grabs.  Last weekend was wild, and I expect no different going forward.  Check out last week’s projection if you need to.  Let’s get into it.

Current Projections as of 2/2/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: UNE (6)
• LEC: Babson (11)
• MAC: Stevenson (35)
• MASCAC: Fitchburg State (29)
• MIAC: Gustavus (20)
• NCHA: Adrian (5)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
• SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
• UCHC: Utica (4)
• WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (17)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (3)
• Bowdoin (7)
• Oswego (8)
• Salve Regina (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Endicott (10)
• Curry (12)
• St. Norbert (13)
• Middlebury (14)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

• The major shuffling continues, as we see three new teams entering the field this week, one coming from automatic qualifier.
  • The new conference leader is coming from out west, as the Gusties of Gustavus Adolphus have taken over the MIAC lead from Bethel, after earning 5 of a possible 6 points against the Royals this past weekend, taking BU’s spot as the #12 seed in the field.
    • GAC is tied for the conference lead with Saint Mary’s in points, but holds the tiebreaker via NPI (and head-to-head).
  • We also saw at-large bids change hands, one being Bowdoin, as the Polar Bears earned an impressive rivalry win against Colby that saw them jump from #11 in the NPI to #7.
  • The other new at-large team is the Seahawks of Salve Regina, as they controversially rejoin the field as the #8 seed, despite not playing this past weekend.
    • The Polar Bears and Seahawks join also in large part to disappointing weekends from big-name programs Endicott and St. Norbert.
      • Endicott shockingly split a weekend series with lowly Western New England, which dropped them from #5 in the NPI to #10.
      • St. Norbert went 0-1-1 in an intense home series with rival Adrian, as the Green Knights slipped from the last team in at #9, all the way back to #13.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Utica’s win streak continues, with a sweep of St. John Fisher, and moves up two seed lines to #4.
  • Adrian’s aforementioned 1-0-1 weekend against St. Norbert moves the Bulldogs up three seed lines to #5.
  • UNE escaped a tricky Johnson & Wales series without a blemish, as the Nor’Easters climb a spot to #6.
  • Oswego has a rough 1-1-1 week, tying at home to Nazareth mid-week, and then shockingly losing a home contest to Canton, as the less-than-stellar SUNYAC conference schedule has caught up to them a bit.
    • The Lakers fall four spots to #8.
  • Fitchburg continues their winning ways in MASCAC play, while Stevenson slips up at Wilkes.
    • So, FSU climbs to the #13 seed, while Stevenson falls to the bottom to #14.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Endicott.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • CNE: (2)
  • NCHA: (2)
  • SUNYAC: (2)
    • The NCHA loses its third team in St. Norbert, while the Salve situation means an independent is taking up a spot from another conference.

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Hamilton
3. Aurora
4. Utica
5. Adrian
6. UNE
7. Bowdoin
8. Oswego
9. Salve Regina
10. Babson
11. UW-Eau Claire
12. Gustavus
13. Fitchburg State
14. Stevenson

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) Salve Regina @ 8) Oswego

13) Fitchburg State @ 6) UNE

14) Stevenson @ 4) Utica

10) Babson @ 7) Bowdoin

11) UW-Eau Claire @ 5) Adrian

12) Gustavus @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

9) SRU/8) Oswego @ 1) Hobart

13) FSU/6) UNE vs. 14) Stevenson/4) Utica

10) Babson/7) Bowdoin @ 2) Hamilton

11) UWEC/5) Adrian vs. 12) GAC/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

The top two seeds keep their byes in this projection, as #1 Hobart and #2 Hamilton hold serve, and continue to win.

The 10E/4W Split

With St. Norbert taking more dings to their resume, we have slipped back into 10/4 territory for the regional split.  As Adrian remains one of the west teams, we will have a bit of a situation to sort through given AC’s location.

While Adrian could be put into a Hobart pod, I think pairing up #1 and #5 in a quarterfinal is something the NCAA would like to avoid, so I do see a little extra being spent on this potential bracket, since it’s not too egregious.

Forcing Adrian West

Since I feel Hobart would demand an easier draw than Adrian, we will have to push Adrian with the other three west teams to make a western pod.  New-to-the-field #12 Gustavus would head south to #3 Aurora for a first round matchup, while #11 UW-Eau Claire would head east to #5 Adrian.

Now, there is a 545 mile disparity between Eau Claire and Adrian, so unfortunately, a flight would have to be offered to the Blugolds.  There is also a chance that we see another flight in the quarterfinal if the Gusties could knock off Aurora.  So while there is a shot at multiple flights, I think this is overall, the better course of action for the NCAA.

Setting the Rest of Round 1 Matchups

After taking care of the west teams and the bye teams, we are left with these remaining teams without a first round opponent.

• #4 Utica
• #6 UNE
• #7 Bowdoin
• #8 Oswego
• #9 Salve Regina
• #10 Babson
• #13 Fitchburg State
• #14 Stevenson

If we pair off these teams according to seed, we have the following matchups: #14 Stevenson heads to #4 Utica in a former UCHC rivalry.  #13 Fitchburg plays at #6 UNE.  #10 Babson heads to #7 Bowdoin in a matchup between two of the best mascots imaginable.  Finally, we have a true 8/9 game with Salve heading west to #8 Oswego.

With no mileage or conference restrictions, these matchups work out great!

Setting the Quarterfinals

We already know how the west pod will be played out, so let’s look east.

#1 Hobart would get the “middle matchup” winner of #8 Oswego and #9 Salve, in a true-to-bracket quarterfinal.  #2 Hamilton would get the next closest “middle matchup” with the winner of #10 Babson and #7 Bowdoin.  Another game that’s true to seed.  Funny enough, should the home teams win in Round 1, we will see an all-SUNYAC and all-NESCAC quarterfinal.

Finally, we will matchup the #4 Utica/#14 Stevenson winner against the winner of #6 UNE/#13 Fitchburg at the home of the highest-remaining seed.  Luckily enough, this pod works, as Stevenson and UNE are 499(!) miles apart.  Phew.

Frozen Four Placement

#1 Hobart’s pod will be placed with the #4 Utica pod, setting up a potential national championship rematch from last season, a round earlier this time.

On the flip side #2 Hamilton’s pod is placed with the western pod, headed by #3 Aurora.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight from UW-Eau Claire to Adrian
• 1 additional flight if Adrian AND Gustavus win in Round 1

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

• 1 flight for the winner of the bottom right quadrant of the bracket

This bracket results in anywhere from 2-3 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks again for reading this week’s bracketology.  Keep an eye out for further articles this week breaking down conference races in the last few weeks!