We’re back with another wild edition of bracketology as the season is reaching the home stretch.  As messy as last week’s projection was, this one still has some flaws, and the teams aren’t making it easy, as competition continues to ratchet up.

Current Projections as of 1/27/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

  • CNE: UNE (7)
  • LEC: Babson (13)
  • MAC: Stevenson (31)
  • MASCAC: Fitchburg State (33)
  • MIAC: Bethel (30)
  • NCHA: Adrian (8)
  • NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
  • SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
  • UCHC: Utica (6)
  • WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (16)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

  • Aurora (3)
  • Oswego (4)
  • Endicott (5)
  • St. Norbert (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

  • Salve Regina (10)
  • Bowdoin (11)
  • Chatham (12)
  • Curry (14)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

  • Two weeks ago, we had five new teams.  Last week, three.  Now, we have five new teams yet again, with most coming via automatic qualifier.
    • With Endicott’s shocking tie to Roger Williams, UNE tied back up for the CNE lead, and wins the tiebreaker over Curry, as the Nor’Easters reenter the field as the #7 seed.
      • Endicott does stay in the field as an at-large bid, falling just two spots to the #5 seed.
    • St. Norbert played an unorthodox weekend series against MSOE, but it resulted in a sweep nonetheless, as the Green Knights get back into the projected field as an at-large, and the #9 seed.
    • Babson reclaims the LEC lead via tiebreaker after Norwich slips up with a tie against Plymouth State.  The Beavers get the #10 seed.
    • Bethel becomes the third MIAC team to take the autobid in our projection this year, as the Royals swept St. Scholastica, taking the bid away from Saint John’s.  Bethel takes the #12 seed out of #14.
    • Finally, Stevenson becomes the new leader in the MAC after Neumann shockingly gets swept by Misericordia.  Stevenson enters as the #13 seed.
  • With Neumann, Saint John’s, and Norwich losing bids via the automatic qualifier, Bowdoin and Salve Regina are the teams who fall out via at-large, falling from #5 and #8, respectively.
    • This is due to UNE and St. Norbert moving in, along with Endicott keeping an at-large bid.
  • Other Seed Line Shifts:
    • Aurora moves up one seed line to #3 overall after sweeping Concordia-Wisconsin.
    • Oswego jumps up to #4 after two more SUNYAC wins, improving their record to a stellar 13-2-1.
    • Utica keeps on winning, jumping one more spot to the #6 seed.
    • Adrian jumps one spot as well after a sweep of Dubuque, climbing to #8 in the NPI.
    • Eau Claire falls one seed line to the #11, mainly due to Babson reclaiming the Little East conference lead.
  • The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Salve Regina.
  • Multi-bid Leagues:
    • NCHA: (3)
    • CNE: (2)
    • SUNYAC: (2)
      • The NCHA gets its third team in, which many people expected to happen, while the CNE replaces the NESCAC as a multi-bid conference.

Seeding

  1. Hobart
  2. Hamilton
  3. Aurora
  4. Oswego
  5. Endicott
  6. Utica
  7. UNE
  8. Adrian
  9. St. Norbert
  10. Babson
  11. UW-Eau Claire
  12. Bethel
  13. Stevenson
  14. Fitchburg State

Projected Bracket

First Round

13) Stevenson @ 8) Adrian

10) Babson @ 5) Endicott

14) Fitchburg State @ 4) Oswego

7) UNE @ 6) Utica

11) UW-Eau Claire @ 9) St. Norbert

12) Bethel @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

13) Stevenson/8) Adrian @ 1) Hobart

10) Babson/5) Endicott vs. 14) FSU/4) Oswego

7) UNE/6) Utica @ 2) Hamilton

11) UWEC/9) SNC vs. 12) Bethel/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

  • Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
  • The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

While last week’s bracket was a bit of a mess, this one, albeit not perfect, is much cleaner.  The top 2 seeds do in fact get the byes this time, with #1 Hobart and #2 Hamilton looking like juggernauts as of late.

The 9E/5W Split

With St. Norbert picking up a bid over the weekend, we have returned to five west teams in the field.  After looking at the seeding and how a traditional 14-team bracket should be laid out, the path of least resistance appears to be pairing up four west teams in a battle royale yet again, although seeding makes this look less than appealing.

The West Pod… and Adrian

Shockingly, this bracket is built around Adrian, yet again.  The four non-Adrian west teams will be matched up in a pod, with #3 Aurora hosting new-to-the-party #12 Bethel.  Then, the cross-state trip returns, with the #11 Blugolds of UWEC heading east to take on the #9 Green Knights of St. Norbert.

The quarterfinal game will be held at the highest remaining seed after Round 1 with Aurora having the inside track to host.

Keeping Some Form of Bracket Integrity

Adrian is again, on the outside of the western battle royale, with only two teams within the “drivable distance” of 500 miles: #4 Oswego and #1 Hobart.

Although Hobart would be up for any test imaginable, I don’t think it’s quite far to reward the #1 overall seed with the winner of #8 Adrian and #4 Oswego in the quarterfinal round.  So, we are going to bend the rules a bit based off what we’ve seen in the past.

In prior years, Adrian has been bracketed with east schools just outside the 500 mile limit, with the option given to them or their opponent to fly or drive, whatever they prefer.  This most recently happened in 2023, with Hamilton traveling to Adrian on the women’s side despite being 30 miles over the 500-mile limit.

So, we are going to take one lower-seeded east school that is 511 miles from Adrian’s campus: #13 Stevenson.

The Mustangs will be given that same option of flying or driving (most likely driving) to head to #8 Adrian in Round 1.  Then, the winner would take on #1 Hobart, giving this bracket some much-needed integrity, as #4 Oswego is off to another pod.

Setting Remaining East Matchups

When pairing the highest and lowest ranked teams by seeding whom are left to play in Round 1, we are left with these matchups in the east:  #14 Fitchburg @ #4 Oswego in the battle of the green & yellow, #10 Babson @ #5 Endicott, a matchup between two more green schools, and #7 UNE @ #6 Utica in what should be a thriller.

Given it is the “middle matchup” of these three, the #7 UNE/#6 Utica winner is off to face #2 Hamilton, in what could be another fantastic rematch should Utica come through against UNE.

Finally, the pod with the 4/5 schools are paired together, with the #14 Fitchburg/#4 Oswego winner taking on the #10 Babson/#5 Endicott winner at the highest remaining seed.

Frozen Four Placement

When discussing semifinals, we will have the #1 Hobart pod placed with the #4 Oswego pod, and if seeds hold, meaning we’ll have a SUNYAC matchup in the Frozen Four.

On the other side of the bracket, we have the west pod, flanked by #3 Aurora, partnered with the #2 Hamilton pod.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

  • 1 flight from Stevenson to Adrian (IF THEY TAKE IT)

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

  • 1 flight for the winner of the bottom right quadrant of the bracket
  • 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from the top left quadrant

This bracket results in anywhere from 0-3 flights depending on Stevenson’s hypothetical decision.

Wrap-Up

Thanks once again for catching up on this week’s projection.  Next week, after the groundhog has come and gone, we will see if the bids continue to change hands, or if stability will take hold for a change.

This upcoming weekend, we’ll have the top four teams colliding in the NCHA, a battle for the top of the MIAC, and two potential bubble teams in the UCHC….

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