As tensions rise around the country, there are serious rooting interests starting to develop around the country, within conferences, and most certainly on the bubble. Before I unveil the most complicated bracket we’ve seen thus far, take a look at last week’s projection!
Current Projections as of 1/22/26
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Endicott (3)
- LEC: Norwich (26)
- MAC: Neumann (34)
- MASCAC: Fitchburg State (37)
- MIAC: Saint John’s (23)
- NCHA: Adrian (10)
- NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
- SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
- UCHC: Utica (7)
- WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (19)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Aurora (3)
- Bowdoin (5)
- Oswego (6)
- Salve Regina (8)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- UNE (9)
- UW-Stout (11)
- St. Norbert (12)
- Babson (13)
Discussion
- New Teams in Field:
- After a whopping five new teams in the field in last week’s projection, we do have three changes in this edition, all coming as new conference leaders for the auto-bids.
- St. Norbert slipped up yet again against Concordia-Wisconsin, as Adrian swept Lake Forest.
- Thus, the Bulldogs have taken the solo lead in the NCHA, entering as the #9 seed. AC still has tough games ahead vs. the Green Knights.
- Despite Anna Maria’s upset win over Salve, the following day, the Amcats lost to Williams, as Fitchburg State has overtaken AMC for the lead in the MASCAC auto-bid race, entering the field as the final, #14 seed.
- Anna Maria, Fitchburg, and Westfield are all tied in points percentage, but the tie goes to Fitchburg with the best NPI rank.
- Southern Maine semi-shockingly led the LEC last week, but after a 1-1 week, we have a new leader in the clubhouse, as Norwich has taken the lead by a singular point over Babson.
- The Cadets won a pair of LEC games against Keene State and WestConn, improving to 7-2 in conference play. After since losing to Middlebury, Norwich is the #12 seed in this projection.
- Other Seed Line Shifts:
- Endicott split a pair of high-profile games against UNE, moving up a seed line to #3, as they earned their signature win on the season.
- Concurrently, Aurora fell a spot to #4, mainly due to Endicott’s win, as well as getting pushed to OT by Marian.
- Bowdoin jumped up three spots to #5 after a pair of NESCAC wins, continuing their stellar season.
- Utica continues to climb after their slow start, jumping up three seed lines to #7, and a massive eight-spot NPI jump.
- As previously mentioned, Salve was upset by Anna Maria Saturday night, falling three seed lines to the #8 seed, falling squarely on the bubble with plenty of hockey to be played.
- Eau Claire fell one seed line to #10 after splitting a home weekend series against MIAC teams, including a 6-4 loss to the current MIAC leader Saint John’s.
- The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 6 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 UNE.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NCHA: (2)
- NESCAC: (2)
- SUNYAC: (2)
Seeding
- Hobart
- Hamilton
- Endicott
- Aurora
- Bowdoin
- Oswego
- Utica
- Salve Regina
- Adrian
- UW-Eau Claire
- Saint John’s
- Norwich
- Neumann
- Fitchburg State
Projected Bracket
First Round
9) Adrian @ 6) Oswego
11) Saint John’s @ 10) UW-Eau Claire
8) Salve Regina @ 7) Utica
14) Fitchburg State @ 2) Hamilton
12) Norwich @ 5) Bowdoin
13) Neumann @ 3) Endicott
Quarterfinals
9) Adrian/6) Oswego @ 1) Hobart
11) SJU/10) UWEC @ 4) Aurora
8) SRU/7) Utica vs. 14) FSU/2) Hamilton
12) Norwich/5) Bowdoin vs. 13) Neumann/3) Endicott
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
A Tricky Situation
For the first time this season, we are straying away from giving byes to the top seeds, and it’s a complicated reason why. With the makeup of the teams in this field, if we went off straight-seeding, we likely have four additional flights that the NCAA would pay for to hold a fairly fair tournament.
In my opinion, that’s a bridge too far for the NCAA to cover. Say it was two extra flights, I could maybe see it happening. But I can’t see this happening.
So, Who Gets the Byes?
You’ll never believe this, but the main issue stems from Adrian (sarcasm). Their tough geographical situation leaves us with only three “true” western teams.
Like last week, we could theoretically pair up all four west teams, but that results in one and maybe two flights, while Adrian is in drivable distance of multiple east teams, with decent bracket integrity being kept.
So, if we force Adrian east, the remaining three west teams will be paired up in a pod, with #4 Aurora getting the bye, along with #1 Hobart, screwing #2 Hamilton in the process.
Setting West Pod
According to seed, we have #11 Saint John’s rematching against #10 Eau Claire, a game we just saw last weekend. Then, the winner heads south to #4 Aurora in the quarterfinal, guaranteeing a west team heads to the Frozen Four.
Adrian’s Pod
We mentioned #9 Adrian is in driving distance of multiple east teams. Those two teams are #6 Oswego and #1 Hobart. So if we pod those teams up, we have #9 Adrian @ #6 Oswego with the winner heading to #1 Hobart. Unfortunately, this is a bit of a tough draw for the three-time defending champs.
Setting Remaining East Matchups
When pairing the highest and lowest ranked teams by seeding, we are left with these matchups in the east: #14 Fitchburg takes trip west to take on #2 Hamilton. #13 Neumann heads north to Beverly to play #3 Endicott. It’s a battle of northern teams as #12 Norwich goes east to #5 Bowdoin. Finally, #8 Salve gets a bit of a tough draw, having to play on the road in Round 1, going to #7 Utica.
Quarterfinal Opponents
We already have two pods set up, so now it’s time to match up the remaining four matchups with one another. According to seed, we will place #2 Hamilton’s matchup winner with the lowest seed, the #7 Utica matchup winner.
On the flip side, #3 Endicott matchup winner is placed against the #5 Bowdoin matchup winner. For both of these quarterfinal matchups, the games will be held at the highest seed in the matchup, with Hamilton and Endicott holding the inside track.
Frozen Four Placement
The two three-team pods are placed on the same side, giving us six teams on one side, and eight teams on the other, making it a headache for the graphics guy (me). So we have the two four team pods, led by #2 Hamilton and #3 Endicott being matched up, as well as #1 Hobart’s pod being matched up with #4 Aurora’s west pod.
Dollars & “Sense”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- Zero flights, just like the NCAA likes it!
Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)
- 1 flight for the winner of the bottom left quadrant of the bracket
- 1 additional flight if Adrian advances from the top left quadrant
This bracket results in anywhere from 1-2 flights.
Wrap-Up
While this is by far the messiest projected bracket we have seen thus far, hopefully we get a more fair bracket as more games are played. While we don’t have any massive matchups this weekend, I do believe the numbers will be shifting, so come back next week as we close out January!
