As the second half is getting into full swing, we now have seen numerous results that have wildly shifted the landscape of the tournament’s outlook moving into mid-January.  Be sure to check out last week’s projections in order to get the full scope of all that’s changed in the last seven days.

Current Projections as of 1/13/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (4)
• LEC: Southern Maine (48)
• MAC: Neumann (43)
• MASCAC: Anna Maria (38)
• MIAC: Saint John’s (22)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (7)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
• SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
• UCHC: Utica (15)
• WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (12)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (3)
• Salve Regina (5)
• Oswego (6)
• Bowdoin (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• UW-Stout (9)
• Curry (10)
• UNE (11)
• Adrian (13)

Discussion

• New Teams in Field:
  • We have shockingly, five new schools that have entered the projected field.
  • At-Large: 
    • Oswego, previously the first team out at #10, earned a pair of SUNYAC wins, moving up to #6 in the NPI.
  • Auto-Bid:
    • St. Norbert jumped five spots in the NPI to #7, despite not playing a game this week.
      • They also overtook Adrian for the lead in the NCHA automatic bid (They are tied in points percentage, but NPI is the tiebreaker).
    • Saint John’s overtook the MIAC auto-bid lead, as Saint Mary’s suffered a sweep by Gustavus last weekend.  SJU entered as the #11 seed.
    • Anna Maria also overtook the MASCAC auto-bid via NPI tiebreaker, after Fitchburg State was upset by Salem State.  AMC entered as the #12 seed.
    • In one of the more shocking results, Babson was upset by New England College, as Southern Maine takes first place in the LEC by a singular point, capturing the final #14 seed.
      • Previous conference leaders Adrian, Babson, Fitchburg, and Saint Mary’s all fell out of the field.
• Other New Conference Leaders:
  • Hamilton defeated the previous NESCAC leader Bowdoin last weekend, jumping from the #4 seed to the #2 seed, and capturing the NESCAC lead.
    • Bowdoin also suffered a second weekend loss, falling to #8 in the NPI.
  • Endicott jumped from #9 to #4 in the NPI, and also took the lead in the CNE standings, with UNE suffering a split at the hands fo Suffolk.
    • UNE exited the field with the loss, marking the fifth team to fall out of the field.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • As stated:
    • #2 Hamilton moved up two seeds, as #8 Bowdoin slipped six seeds.
    • #4 Endicott moved up five seeds.
  • With Babson falling out of the field, and USM taking their place as the #14 seed, #9 UWEC, #10 Utica, and #13 Neumann each moved up one spot.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out.  This gives us 6 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 UW-Stout.
• With Oswego in and UNE out, we have a new conference with multiple teams in:
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NCHA: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)
  • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Hamilton
3. Aurora
4. Endicott
5. Salve Regina
6. Oswego
7. St. Norbert
8. Bowdoin
9. UW-Eau Claire
10. Utica
11. Saint John’s
12. Anna Maria
13. Neumann
14. Southern Maine

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Utica @ 8) Bowdoin

13) Neumann @ 5) Salve Regina

14) Southern Maine @ 4) Endicott

12) Anna Maria @ 6) Oswego

9) UW-Eau Claire @ 7) St. Norbert

11) Saint John’s @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

10) Utica/8) Bowdoin @ 1) Hobart

13) Neumann/5) SRU vs. 14) USM/4) Endicott

12) AMC/6) Oswego @ 2) Hamilton

9) UWEC/7) SNC vs. 11) SJU/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

Hobart stands pat at #1, but we have #2 Hamilton entering bye territory after their big weekend sweep of Bowdoin and Colby.

The 10E/4W Split

Despite all the shifting, we still have four west teams in the field, with SNC replacing their rival Adrian for the moment.  While I could assume the NCAA operates like last year and maintains a shred of bracket integrity, I think this is an instance where the NCAA chooses to pair up all four west schools.

Realistically, I don’t think the NCAA is willing to pay for two flights up front, while there is a potential for more flights to Utica for the Frozen Four.  I think they’d rather bank on flying one, no more, no less.  It’s not fair in the slightest, but the cost difference is too high for them to preach about bracket integrity.

Setting West Matchups

#11 Saint John’s buses down to #3 Aurora, while #9 UW-Eau Claire drives cross-state to #7 St. Norbert in a highly-contested rematch from the regular season, which saw each team win a home game.  The winners would then face off at the highest remaining seed, with all four schools within 500 miles of one another.

Setting East Matchups

When pairing the highest and lowest ranked teams by seeding, we are left with these matchups in the east: #14 Southern Maine heads to Beverly, Mass to face off against #4 Endicott.  #13 Neumann goes to #5 Salve.  #12 Anna Maria heads west to #6 Oswego.  Finally, #10 Utica travels to #8 Bowdoin in an epic 2013 quarterfinal rematch.

Quarterfinal Opponents

As mentioned previously, the four west teams are put together in one pod, whittling it down to one west team in the Frozen Four no matter what.

With #1 getting the winner of the two middle seeds, #1 Hobart gets the winner of #8 Bowdoin and #10 Utica.  The Statesmen are just within driving distance of the Polar Bears.

#2 gets the next closest seeds, so #2 Hamilton gets the winner of #12 Anna Maria and #6 Oswego.

Finally, we match up the remaining pod of four, as the #14 USM/#4 Endicott winner faces the winner of #13 Neumann and #5 Salve.

Frozen Four Placement

The #1 Hobart pod is placed with the #4 Endicott pod.  On the flip side the #2 Hamilton pod matches up against the winner of the western battle royale.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• Zero flights, just like the NCAA likes it!

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

• 1 flight for the winner of the bottom right quadrant of the bracket

This bracket results in exactly 1 flight.

Wrap-Up

With all of the shifting from last weekend’s results, remember that this is by no means set in stone, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see another wild and crazy weekend of hockey.  Come back next week for more!