The calendar has flipped, 2026 is upon us, and the hockey has resumed!  We’ve seen some notable results in the holiday tournaments that in some cases, have shaken things up, while in other cases, given us a lot more clarity.  Before we jump in, here are the pre-Christmas projections!

Current Projections as of 1/6/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: UNE (7)
• LEC: Babson (6)
• MAC: Neumann (43)
• MASCAC: Fitchburg State (29)
• MIAC: Saint Mary’s (31)
• NCHA: Adrian (8)
• NESCAC: Bowdoin (2)
• SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
• UCHC: Utica (20)
• WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (18)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (3)
• Hamilton (4)
• Salve Regina (5)
• Endicott (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Oswego (10)
• UW-Stout (11)
• St. Norbert (12)
• Geneseo (13)

Discussion

• New Teams in Field:
  • After all the holiday tournaments, one school that made a big jump up was the Aurora Spartans.
    • AU won a pair of non-con games against conference leader Adrian, pushing the Spartans from the first team out at #8, all the way up to #3 in the NPI.
  • Despite a relatively easier start to their schedule, the Endicott Gulls keep chugging along, gaining two more wins to get to 8-1-1 so far on the season, moving up two spots from #11 to #9, earning them the final at-large bid at this time.
    • The Gulls were the beneficiaries of teams above them tripping up, as Endicott and Aurora both replace Oswego and St. Norbert, respectively.
      • Oswego tied a home contest with a lesser Williams squad, while SNC dropped a home contest to a red-hot UW-Stout.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • Babson’s holiday tournament win, featured a pair of wins against Williams and Elmira pushed the Beavers up to #6 in the NPI.
    • Last week, Babson was ranked #13 in the NPI, so while Babson moved up 7 spots in the rankings, they jump three seed lines, previously sitting as the #9 seed.
  • Despite dropping a game against a quality Bowdoin team, UNE jumped from the 8 seed to the 7 seed, including a two-spot NPI jump.
  • To pair with Aurora’s big jump, the Bulldogs of Adrian suffered a decent fall, dropping to #8 in the NPI, and the #8 seed in the tournament projection.
• Despite no other seed line shifts, some of the automatic bid leaders separated from the others, as UW-Eau Claire and Utica each continue their upward momentum in the NPI rankings, each moving up five spots.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Oswego.
• With Salve being an independent, we have just three multi-bid leagues:
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • CNE: (2)
  • NCHA: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Bowdoin
3. Aurora
4. Hamilton
5. Salve Regina
6. Babson
7. UNE
8. Adrian
9. Endicott
10. UW-Eau Claire
11. Utica
12. Fitchburg State
13. Saint Mary’s
14. Neumann

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) UW-Eau Claire @ 8) Adrian

12) Fitchburg State @ 5) Salve Regina

14) Neumann @ 4) Hamilton

11) Utica @ 7) UNE

9) Endicott @ 6) Babson

13) Saint Mary’s @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

10) UWEC/8) Adrian @ 1) Hobart

12) Fitchburg St./5) SRU vs. 14) Neumann/4) Hamilton

11) Utica/7) UNE @ 2) Bowdoin

9) Endicott/6) Babson vs. 13) SMU/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

Hobart and Bowdoin stay put as the top two seeds, as Bowdoin’s big win over UNE gives them a little wiggle room.

The 10E/4W Split

Two teams exited, two teams entered.  One west team exited, one west team entered.  Our 10/4 split is intact, with Aurora replacing St. Norbert, and Endicott replacing Oswego.  We’ll group Adrian into the west group yet again, despite their remote location.

Setting West Matchups

Despite the mileage, we have no choice but to pair up all four west teams. So, #13 Saint Mary’s heads south to #3 Aurora, being well within driving distance.  On the other hand, #10 UWEC is flown to #8 Adrian.

Setting East Matchups

Pairing the highest and lowest ranked teams by seeding, we are left with these matchups in the east: #14 Neumann heads up to #4 Hamilton.  In a northeastern battle, #5 Salve Regina hosts #12 Fitchburg.  #6 Babson hosts #11 Utica in Wellesley, MA.  Finally, we see an intriguing matchup between #9 Endicott and #7 UNE, CNE conference riva….

CNE Swap

….shoot, well, with two CNE teams in the field, and conveniently matched up according to seed, we have to swap the nearest matchup opponents (by seed) to make this bracket work.  So, the Babson/Utica matchup will be affected.

In turn, it’ll be an all-time NCAA postseason classic rematch, as #7 UNE hosts #11 Utica.  The other matchup will be a battle of the teams in green, as #6 Babson hosts #9 Endicott in an in-state matchup.

I’ll note (according to seed), the teams getting a bit of an “easier” Round 1 matchup are #4 Hamilton, #7 UNE, #8 Adrian, #11 Utica, and #14 Neumann.  The teams getting a “harder” Round 1 matchup are #3 Aurora, #6 Babson, #9 Endicott, #10 UWEC, and #13 Saint Mary’s.

Cross-Region Quarterfinals

With the assumption that flights are a go for Round 2, we’ll set the quarterfinals according to sed.

#1 Hobart gets the #8 Adrian/#10 Eau Claire winner in a cross-region quarterfinal.  Interestingly enough, if the Bulldogs can protect home ice, no flight will be needed, as Hobart and Adrian are within 500 miles of one another.

With #2 traditionally getting the #7 seed’s matchup, #2 Bowdoin would get the winner of #7 UNE and #11 Utica.  That would be for one intriguing Lobster Pot rematch in the national quarterfinals if seeds held true.

We’ll then matchup the #3 Aurora/#13 SMU winner with the #6 Babson/#9 Endicott winner in another cross-region quarterfinal, played at the the highest seed remaining.

Finally, the last two matchups are paired together, with the #4 Hamilton/#14 Neumann winner playing the #5 Salve/#12 Fitchburg winner at the home of the highest seed.

Frozen Four Placement

Once again, the #1 Hobart pod is placed with the #4 Hamilton pod.  On the flip side, the #2 Bowdoin pod is matched with the #3 Aurora pod.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• First Round:
  • 1 flight from UW-Eau Claire to Adrian
• Quarterfinals:
  • 1 flight for SMU/AUR vs. END/BAB winners at highest seed
  • 1 additional flight if UW-Eau Claire wins

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

• 1 additional flight if Adrian/Eau Claire advances from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Aurora/Saint Mary’s advances from bottom right quadrant of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-5 flights.

Wrap-Up

This upcoming weekend, we’ll see conference play start to ramp up a bit and possibly some more separation at the top of certain leagues.  We’ll have some interesting matchups between conference contenders in the LEC and MIAC, and a massive NESCAC game that will certainly impact the landscape.  Be sure to check back for more Bracketology next week!