We are just six days away, folks.  The NCAA Tournament is around the corner, and we saw some thrilling playoff hockey the past few days.  Now, while the picture is clearer, there is still a lot to be sorted out.  Before we project, review our conference tournament brackets to check out this week’s upcoming championship games, and last week’s projection.

Current Projections as of 3/2/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: UNE (5)
• LEC: Norwich (15)
• MAC: Neumann (29)
• MASCAC: Anna Maria (21)
• MIAC: Saint John’s (18)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (11)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
• SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
• UCHC: Utica (6)
• WIAC: UW-Stout (9)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Endicott (3)
• Bowdoin (4)
• Aurora (7)
• Salve Regina (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Adrian (10)
• Babson (12)
• Geneseo (13)
• Oswego (14)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

• Despite all the chaos, we have just one new team entering the field.
  • New Conference Leader:
    • St. Norbert, propelled by a massive third period held off a ranked Trine team to advance to the NCHA championship game yet again.  SNC, sitting at #11 in the NPI enters the field as the #10 seed.
    • There’s another side to this coin, as St. Norbert, the #2 seed in the NCHA became the favorite for the auto-bid.
      • Adrian, the top seed, lost their NCHA semifinal game at home to fellow bubble team, Aurora for the fifth time this season, 6-2.
        • With the loss, AC fell a whopping SIX spots in the very-tight NPI rankings, from #5 to #11.  The Bulldogs are now the first team out of our projection and need some help.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Bowdoin held off a furious Amherst attack for a 3-1 NESCAC quarterfinal win, and jumped up two seed lines to the #4 seed.
  • Despite an absolute beatdown of Nichols in the CNE semis, UNE slipped one seed line to #5 after the weekend’s results.
  • Utica jumped up two seed lines to the #6 seed after beating a solid Nazareth team in the UCHC semifinals.
  • As previously mentioned, Aurora was the weekend’s big winner in that headline matchup against Adrian, as the Spartans earned a bit of breathing room, moving up two seed lines to the #7 seed.
  • Salve Regina still hasn’t played in seemingly forever, waiting for other conferences to conclude tournaments.  The Seahawks fell one seed line to the #8, just needing to hold on one more week.
  • UW-Stout won a defensive battle against Stevens Point in the WIAC semifinals, which boosted them a seed line to the #9.
• The cut line for this projection is #11 being the first spot out.  This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #11 Adrian.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • CNE: (2)
  • NCHA: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)
    • With two rivals changing places in the projection, the NCHA remains at two bids, as the same three conferences are hanging onto multiple bids.
      • It sure seems like the CNE is a lock for two bids, and the NESCAC is in great shape for two.  We’ll talk about this more in my bubble watch article, publishing later this week.

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Hamilton
3. Endicott
4. Bowdoin
5. UNE
6. Utica
7. Aurora
8. Salve Regina
9. UW-Stout
10. St. Norbert
11. Norwich
12. Saint John’s
13. Anna Maria
14. Neumann

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) St. Norbert @ 9) UW-Stout

11) Norwich @ 5) UNE

13) Anna Maria @ 4) Bowdoin

12) Saint John’s @ 7) Aurora

8) Salve Regina @ 6) Utica

14) Neumann @ 3) Endicott

Quarterfinals

10) SNC/9) Stout @ 1) Hobart

12) Norwich/5) UNE vs. 13) AMC/4) Bowdoin

12) SJU/7) Aurora @ 2) Hamilton

8) SRU/6) Utica vs. 14) Neumann/3) Endicott

Geographical Breakdown

Rationale

The Byes

Hobart earned a pair of shutout wins over Fredonia and Cortland to advance to the SUNYAC title game, while Hamilton avoided disaster, winning in OT against Conn. College.  These two hold serve as the bye-earners, but Hamilton still needs probably another win to lock that up.

The 10E/4W Split

With Adrian out, and St. Norbert in, the 10/4 split stays intact.  However, it is a much different setup with Adrian out of the picture, due to their rather remote location in regards to other hockey schools.  SNC is much closer to the other west teams in this projection.

Setting the West First Rounders

As I’ve been projecting for a while, I strongly feel as if the NCAA will operate as they did last season, allowing for cross-region quarterfinals.  While I would like to see those games in Round 1, I’ll believe it when I see it.

With that being said, I will pair up the four west teams in the first round before intermixing teams of both regions.  So, the highest seed, #7 Aurora will host #12 Saint John’s, while #9 UW-Stout hosts #10 St. Norbert in a major rematch from this season.  Luckily, the two NCHA teams avoid one another, saving us a potential headache.

Setting the Rest of Round 1

With the west teams and bye teams accounted for, let’s see who’s left without an opponent in Round 1:

• #3 Endicott
• #4 Bowdoin
• #5 UNE
• #6 Utica
• #8 Salve Regina
• #11 Norwich
• #13 Anna Maria
• #14 Neumann

If we match teams up by seed, we have #14 Neumann at #3 Endicott, a matchup we’ve projected for a while, now.  #13 Anna Maria heads up to Maine to take on #4 Bowdoin.  #11 Norwich takes the trip southeast to #6 UNE in a very intriguing game.  Finally we have another matchup we’ve projected fora few weeks, but with a new location: #8 Salve @ #6 Utica.

Quarterfinal Opponents

#1 Hobart would get the most beneficial opponent according to seed, so the Statesmen would host the winner of #10 SNC and #9 Stout.  Quite the interesting matchup.

#2 Hamilton would get the next most “middle matchup” by seed, so the #12 Saint John’s/#7 Aurora winner would head to Clinton to take on the Continentals in another cross-region quarterfinal.

In the pods of four, we traditionally pair up seeds #4 & #5, and seeds #3 & #6.  So, the #14 Neumann/#3 Endicott winner would take on the winner of #8 Salve and #6 Utica.  On the other side, the #13 AMC/#4 Bowdoin winner takes on the #11 Norwich/#5 UNE winner.  Both of those quarterfinals will take place at the home of the highest seed remaining in those respective pods.

Frozen Four Placement

With #1 and #4 traditionally on the same side, we will place the #4 Bowdoin pod up against the #1 Hobart pod.  On the flip side, the #2 Hamilton and #3 Endicott pods face off in the other national semifinal.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Round:

• No flights, just the way the NCAA likes it!

Quarterfinals:

• 1 flight for St. Norbert/UW-Stout to Hobart
• 1 flight for Saint John’s/Aurora to Hamilton

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

• 1 flight if St. Norbert/UW-Stout advances from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 flight if Saint John’s/Aurora advances from top right quadrant of bracket

This bracket results in anywhere from 2-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

While it’s a bit sad we just 11 games left in the season before the NCAA tourney, it will be the final test to see who has enough to make it into the field of 14.  Tensions are high, and teams are fighting for their lives.  Keep an eye out for the updated bubble watch later this week, and once again, thanks for reading!