As we reach mid-February, two conferences (NCHA, WIAC) have wrapped up their seasons, and begin their conference tournaments this weekend.  Things are getting real, and the time is now for schools to make their move, or they’ll be going home earlier than they wish to.  Check out last week’s projection before we jump in.

Current Projections as of 2/18/26

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: UNE (5)
• LEC: Norwich (16)
• MAC: Neumann (34)
• MASCAC: Anna Maria (25)
• MIAC: Saint Mary’s (27)
• NCHA: Adrian (7)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (2)
• SUNYAC: Hobart (1)
• UCHC: Utica (8)
• WIAC: UW-Stout (11)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Bowdoin (3)
• Endicott (4)
• Salve Regina (6)
• Babson (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (10)
• Geneseo (12)
• St. Norbert (13)
• Oswego (14)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

• The huge shakeup continues week-after-week, as we continue to see chaos.  Three new teams have entered the projected field.
• New Conference Leaders:
  • It was the battle of the top two WIAC teams, and UW-Stout defended home ice, earning a pair of nail-biting wins over rival, UW-Eau Claire, claiming the school’s first conference championship since 2011.
    • The Blue Devils take the auto-bid in our projection, entering as the #10 seed.
  • Anna Maria earned a huge conference victory over Fitchburg State in another battle of the top two.  Thus, the Amcats take over the current automatic bid with one week remaining in the regular season.
    • AMC enters as the #12 seed in our field.
• New At-Large Team:
  • Babson continues their stellar season, winning another pair of Little East Conference games, jumping up one spot in the NPI to #9, and jumping to the right side of the bubble, as the last team in.
    • The team who got bumped, is no other than the Aurora Spartans, who have struggled mightily as of late.  AU swept Dubuque in their final NCHA series, but one game went to overtime.
    • Despite the slump, it seems absurd to me that a team with a top four resume in the country like Aurora is on the outside looking in.
• Opinion: The NPI is an extremely flawed metric for Division III hockey. 
  • You cannot base the sport’s national tournament off math alone, when schedules are wildly different and there is so little cross-over play, if any between many conferences.
    • I know there are people who used to dread “the smoke-filled committee room,” who selected the field and seeding back in the day.  But, in my opinion, it’s wildly better than this system.  The NPI being used as a tool is more than okay, but it should not be the end-all, be-all.
• Other Seed Line Shifts:
  • Bowdoin won two more NESCAC games, and given the strength that league has in the NPI, it was enough for Bowdoin to jump Endicott for the #3 seed, as the Gulls fall back to #4.
  • UNE swept away Wentworth, improving their impressive season record to 19-5-0, and bumping up two seed lines to #5.
  • Salve Regina, despite being 20-4-0, and playing only 20 games against D-III competition, and playing one of the most-lacking SOS in the country, continues to move up as other teams play tough competition.
    • The Seahawks move up another two seed lines to #6.  SRU is a good team, no doubt.  But this season is fundamentally changing how the NPI is perceived, and people are realizing how bad of a system this is for the D-III level.
  • Adrian wrapped up another NCHA regular-season title, after a split with a tough Trine team.  Despite the one loss coming on the road to a top-15 team, the Bulldogs fall a seed line to #7.
  • Utica’s long win streak came to an end, getting swept by a good Geneseo squad in a home-and-home series, with the second loss coming in overtime.
    • The Pios fell three spots to the #8 seed, and are on much thinner ice for a potential at-large bid now, should they not win the UCHC tourney.
  • Norwich maintained the LEC conference lead, winning this past weekend, but fell one seed line to the #11.  This was mainly due to Stout replacing Eau Claire in the field, bumping down the Cadets a notch.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Aurora.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • CNE: (2)
  • LEC: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)
    • With Aurora falling out, the NCHA is wildly down to one bid, and also surprisingly, the LEC finds themselves in two-bid territory.  While I would lean this doesn’t happen on Selection Sunday, there is some chance the path is there for Babson to keep an at-large bid in a few weeks.

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Hamilton
3. Bowdoin
4. Endicott
5. UNE
6. Salve Regina
7. Adrian
8. Utica
9. Babson
10. UW-Stout
11. Norwich
12. Anna Maria
13. Saint Mary’s
14. Neumann

Projected Bracket

First Round

13) Saint Mary’s @ 10) UW-Stout

11) Norwich @ 5) UNE

12) Anna Maria @ 4) Endicott

8) Utica @ 7) Adrian

9) Babson @ 6) Salve Regina

14) Neumann @ 3) Bowdoin

Quarterfinals

13) SMU/10) UWS @ 1) Hobart

11) Norwich/5) UNE vs. 12) AMC/4) Endicott

8) Utica/7) Adrian@ 2) Hamilton

9) Babson/6) SRU vs. 14) Neumann/3) Bowdoin

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

The Byes

Hobart and Hamilton stand firm as the top two seeds, earning the byes in this projection.

The 11E/3W Split

With Aurora falling out, and the NCHA becoming a shockingly one-bid league for the moment, we have reached the disaster scenario for west fans, with the minimum three teams qualifying for the field, and one of those teams in Adrian, being “pseudo-East.”

With Adrian being a bit of no man’s land, this bracket is going to be pretty close to a perfectly-seeded one.  There are so many teams within driving distance out east, that this one will be pretty simple.

First off, we have no choice but to pair those two west teams up, even if they have to travel in Round 2, because there’s no one else for them to play.  So, we will have #13 Saint Mary’s heading across the state line to #10 UW-Stout.

Setting the Rest of Round 1

When taking Hobart, Hamilton, Stout, and SMU out of the conversation, here’s who we have left to match-up:

• #3 Bowdoin
• #4 Endicott
• #5 UNE
• #6 Salve Regina
• #7 Adrian
• #8 Utica
• #9 Babson
• #11 Norwich
• #12 Anna Maria
• #14 Neumann

When pairing off matchups by seed, we get the following games: #14 Neumann heading up the coast to play #3 Bowdoin.  #12 Anna Maria taking the short trip up-state to face off against #4 Endicott.  #11 Norwich @ #5 UNE in what should be a massively-attended battle.  #9 Babson travels south to face old NEHC rival #6 Salve Regina.  Finally, an all-time rematch that would draw the most eyeballs guaranteed in Round 1, with #8 Utica traveling to #7 Adrian.  I would love to watch these all play out.

Setting the Quarterfinals

While Adrian is within driving distance of #1 Hobart, I think this is something they’re willing to overlook when you have a clear “easiest” matchup to feed to the #1 seed.  So, the winner of #13 SMU/#10 Stout will be heading to the Cooler to take on the defending champs.

The next most-middle matchup is where Adrian does come into play, as the #8 Utica/#7 Adrian winner would travel to #2 Hamilton.  Yes, that is an absolute gauntlet of a game for the Continentals (Adrian could in theory choose to bus, should they win, being just 30 miles over the limit, and we’ve seen those two matchup on the women’s side before).

Next, we’ll create two pods based off the remaining schools.  With #3 and #6 traditionally paired together, the #14 Neumann/#3 Bowdoin winner will face off against the winner of #9 Babson/#6 Salve at the home of the highest remaining seed.

The final pod is pretty clean, geographically, with the #12 AMC/#4 Endicott winner facing off against the #11 Norwich/#5 UNE winner at the home of the highest seed.  Here, we have the potential for a CNE rematch, with the winner heading to the Frozen Four.  The Gulls and Nor’Easters have split their two meetings this season.

Frozen Four Placement

Just like normal, we will pair #1 and #4 on the same side, with #2 and #3 on the other.  Thus, we have the Hobart and Endicott pods on the left side of the bracket, with the Hamilton and Bowdoin pods on the right.  This gives us a potential for an all-NESCAC national semifinal.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Round:

• 1 flight from Utica to Adrian (if they take it; just 534 miles)

Quarterfinals:

• 1 flight for Saint Mary’s/UW-Stout to Hobart (if they take it)
• 1 potential flight if Adrian defeats Utica (to Hamilton- if they take it)

Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)

• 1 flight if Saint Mary’s/Stout advances from top left quadrant of bracket
• 1 flight if Adrian advances from top right quadrant of bracket

This bracket results in anywhere from 2-5 flights.

Wrap-Up

We have a bit of playoff hockey this week, and with the conference races coming down to the wire, be sure to tune in next week for our up-to-the-minute update on the potential bracket and who your school should be rooting for/against down the stretch!