As we turn the calendar to December, and the Thanksgiving holiday is behind us, the Division III hockey season is in full-swing with many teams’ seasons nearing the halfway point already. This is the first article in our bracketology series, which I’ll post up until Selection Sunday, as the road to Utica and the Frozen Four is starting to show itself.
I thought now would be a great time to take a very, very, very early look at the current NPI calculations and how potential selections would shake out for the NCAA tournament.
For those who are new here, I’ll give a bit more context on what this series entails. Last season, I published weekly articles that projected the NCAA tournament field as it stood at that very moment. I then do my best with the projected tournament teams to mock up a bracket. Despite selections coming from a calculator, bracketology is always fun to look at, predicting what the committee would do when placing teams. As always, results are subject to change as more games are played.
You’ve heard me reference this “calculator,” and that is the NPI, a new NCAA metric that was implemented for Division III hockey last season, and now is the selection criteria for all team sports at the D3 level. I wrote an NPI breakdown article last year, so check that out if you’re curious about the numbers that go into this calculation.
Before we get into our first projection, I want to post a couple of disclaimers I used last year:
- I did not create the NPI, nor do I agree with it 100% of the time. I am just reporting the data.
- Bracketing is very clearly a hot topic. Usually, it is not the “fairest” outcome, particularly at the Division III level.
- I am often times a major critic of what the NCAA can get away with in D-III. After following these selections for years, I know what the committees are instructed to do by the NCAA, and at what times they can stray from that. Thus, I am predicting what I think the committee would do in this hypothetical, not what I personally would do.
- I have read the championship manuals, and I’ll explain the criteria and rationale behind the predictions when needed!
- I’m not going to bat 1.000 on all of these, but I’ll do my best to explain what I think the committee would do. I know these projections can be frustrating to you and your team, but they’re just projections, and I think the more information fanbases have, they can have more rooting interests in games across the country you may not know about.
Let’s get started!
Format
From the outset, the field remains the same from last season, with the 14 team field, giving the top 2 teams a bye into the quarterfinals. However, there is a major change, relating to all of the conference realignment that has taken place. The Little East launched men’s hockey, in conjunction with the disbanding of the NEHC. Unlike the women’s side, the LEC has an automatic bid from the jump, due to its full-time member requirement being met.
Thus, we will have ten automatic qualifier conference champions, and the top 4 ranked at-large teams who do not win their conference, looking something like this:
- CNE Champion
- LEC Champion
- MAC Champion
- MASCAC Champion
- MIAC Champion
- NCHA Champion
- NESCAC Champion
- SUNYAC Champion
- UCHC Champion
- WIAC Champion
- At-Large #1
- At-Large #2
- At-Large #3
- At-Large #4
This is a fairly simple exercise, as all 10 men leagues are pre-established and have enough teams to get into the postseason (It’s different on the women’s side). I will lay out the selections as I just did.
Current Projections as of 12/4/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: UNE (9)
- LEC: Babson (10)
- MAC: Neumann (38)
- MASCAC: Fitchburg State (31)
- MIAC: Saint Mary’s (33)
- NCHA: St. Norbert (6)
- NESCAC: Bowdoin (4)
- SUNYAC: Oswego (1)
- UCHC: Utica (35)
- WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (20)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Hamilton (2)
- Hobart (3)
- Aurora (5)
- Tufts (7)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Adrian (8)
- Colby (11)
- Middlebury (12)
- Endicott (13)
Discussion
- Automatic qualifiers are determined by the current conference leader. This does not necessarily mean points in their respective conference standings, but points percentage, as I don’t think it’s fair to punish teams who have played less games.
- If two teams are tied in points percentage, I gave the edge to the higher-ranked team in the NPI (See Fitchburg State as the MASCAC leader over Anna Maria and Westfield State).
- As you can see, the last teams into the field via at-large selections have to be ranked fairly high in the NPI with #8 being first on the chopping block, meaning six teams ranked below Adrian at 8, would qualify with automatic bids.
- With the NESCAC having just started two weeks ago, there is still a lot of data to be calculated with their schools, so don’t sharpie any teams in just yet. Although I will say, the league is off to a pretty strong start.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- NCHA: (2)
- SUNYAC: (2)
Seeding
- Oswego
- Hamilton
- Hobart
- Bowdoin
- Aurora
- St. Norbert
- Tufts
- UNE
- Babson
- UW-Eau Claire
- Fitchburg State
- Saint Mary’s
- Utica
- Neumann
Projected Bracket
First Round
9) Babson @ 8) UNE
13) Utica @ 4) Bowdoin
12) Saint Mary’s @ 5) Aurora
11) Fitchburg State @ 7) Tufts
14) Neumann @ 3) Hobart
10) UW-Eau Claire @ 6) St. Norbert
Quarterfinals
9) Babson/8) UNE @ 1) Oswego
12) SMU/5) Aurora vs. 13) Utica/4) Bowdoin
11) Fitchburg St./7) Tufts @ 2) Hamilton
10) UWEC/6) SNC vs. 14) Neumann/3) Hobart
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- The colored shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.
Rationale
As I stated in the women’s bracketology mid-season preview:
“Most of you are probably aware that the NCAA is supposed to avoid paying for flights if at all possible at the D-III level. It’s certainly not fair, but it’s the way it is. If schools are more than 500 miles apart, then the traveling school is eligible for a flight. So if at all possible, the committee very much tries to avoid flights, which can lead to some uneven brackets.”
Now while the NCAA has made some heinous bracketing moves in the past, I will say that they’ve given us fans newfound hope with last year’s bracket. The NCAA put bracket integrity first, and although the first round matchups weren’t perfect, they allowed for cross-region games before the Frozen Four for the first time. It was a huge step, and it makes predicting brackets that much more interesting.
Will the NCAA continue its progression towards equity? Or will they go back to the ways of old? It’ll be interesting to follow, that’s for sure. In typical NCAA fashion, the NCAA took all the good press and put it to waste, as they have BLOCKED the NCAA mileage calculator, which it previously provided for “fan transparency” to tell the distance between their member schools. Now, their fans are left in the dark, and I have no idea why they would hide this harmless information. It seems gross, and I am beyond confused. Anyways, if anyone has access to this data, I would greatly appreciate it.
Some other core principles are that the NCAA will “do their best” to:
- Avoid conference matchups in Round 1 (Quarterfinals are fine).
- Protect the top two seeds by giving them Round 1 byes, if at all possible.
- Availability of facilities/potential revenue generated from specific locations.
For almost all projections, I will assume the higher seeded team has availability to host in their rink, barring specific circumstances, which I would then mention. While I think the NCAA is moving in the right direction, I am not expecting a perfectly equitable bracket in all cases.
The Byes
With a 14-team layout, only 2 teams will get byes. Based off the “top ranked team” protection, I believe the committee will continue to give the top 2 ranked teams the bye. In this case, Oswego & Hamilton get the byes.
The 10E/4W Split
Just like last year, the “split” is always where we start putting our bracket together. Within the 10 auto-bids, we have 7 East conferences, and only 3 West ones, meaning even if the West bottoms out and earns zero at-large bids, it will at the very least be an 11/3 split. Here, with 2 NCHA teams qualifying, we have a nice, clean 10/4 split.
An important note, is that this year, we have a predetermined Frozen Four site: in Utica, NY.
Podding the West? Or not?
What makes this exercise so interesting, is now that the NCAA has crossed the bridge of allowing cross-region games in the Quarterfinals, can they go back? They will get a ton of flak if they do, but I’m going to assume good nature and that they will allow flights for the quarterfinal round.
In the past, I do believe they would pair up the four west teams in one pod, and whittle them down to one, minimizing the cost, when the Frozen Four is held out East. But like I said, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume the equitable stance. Now, I do think they will pair up West teams in Round 1, but not necessarily the quarterfinals.
Setting the First Round Matchups
Out west, they’ll pair up the best and worst seeded teams, as #12 Saint Mary’s heads to Chicagoland to take on #5 Aurora. The other two west teams, by default, will face off in Round 1, as #6 St. Norbert hosts #10 Eau Claire.
In the east, it appears that all of the other east schools are within 500 miles of one another, meaning no flights would be necessary. (Granted these are off my own calculations. Thanks NCAA!) So naturally, we would pair up the highest and lowest seeded teams:
#14 Neumann faces off at #3 Hobart, #13 Utica heads up to #4 Bowdoin, #11 Fitchburg drives cross-state to #7 Tufts, and #9 Babson goes to Maine to take on #8 UNE.
Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups
In a traditional 14-team field, #1 faces the #8/#9 winner, #2 faces the #7/#10 winner, and if favorites hold, you get #3 vs. #6, and #4 vs. #5.
Given the unprecedented bracket integrity we saw in 2025, I think there’s a chance they let it play out on the ice once again. So I have the 12) Saint Mary’s/5) Aurora winner facing the 13) Utica/4) Bowdoin winner at the home of the highest seed. That’s a guaranteed flight, but I’m assuming the committee is making progress.
That also means we have another guaranteed flight, as the 10) UWEC/6) St. Norbert winner faces off against the 14) Neumann/3) Hobart winner at the home of the highest seed.
The other First Round winners will play teams off a bye, as 1) Oswego gets the 9) Babson/8) UNE winner, while 2) Hamilton gets the 11) Fitchburg/7) Tufts winner.
Pretty Simple?
I acknowledge this exercise has become pretty clean when we have easy numbers like this, and the NCAA is willing to spend some travel money prior to the Frozen Four. I can’t promise it will be this simple moving forward, but if it is, there won’t be much to read!
Dollars & “Sense”
We do need to talk the figures at the bottom line, and like it or not, that’s something the NCAA strongly considers. In this hypothetical, here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up the cost for.
First Two Rounds:
- Quarterfinals: 2 flights for:
- SMU/Aurora vs. Utica/Bowdoin
- UWEC/SNC vs. Neumann/Hobart
Frozen Four (Host: Utica University: Utica Memorial Auditorium)
- 1 additional flight if Aurora/Saint Mary’s advances from bottom left quadrant of bracket
- 1 additional flight if St. Norbert/UW-Eau Claire advances from bottom right quadrant of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-4 flights.
Wrap-Up
If you’re still reading along, I want to thank you so much for doing so! Again, this is an extremely early look and we will see plenty of shifting along the way. With a lot of explaining out of the way, next article should be much shorter! I can’t wait for the discourse to get started, and any questions, comments, or concerns are welcome down below!
