Selection Sunday is just a few short days away, and this weekend, trophies will be hoisted, and bids will be sealed to the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s take one final peek at where everyone sits heading into the final games.
Check out my latest bracketology for another look at the field and seeding. With six at-large bids and seven automatic qualifiers, there is still much to be sorted out and numbers for the calculator to spit out. We’ll take a look at who has clinched, who is desperate, and who is somewhere in between.
Locks
- UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/68.678)
- Nazareth (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/63.820)
- Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/63.501)
- Augsburg (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/61.359)
- Amherst (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/61.120)
Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”
These teams have all locked up a chance at playing for a national championship. River Falls was already here last week, and is joined by four more schools this go-around.
Nazareth avoided the potential fatal loss by destroying Albertus Magnus, meaning they keep their unbeaten season alive. Even with a loss in the UCHC title game, they’ve built up enough of an NPI lead that they will be returning to the NCAA’s for the 5th year in a row.
Norwich also avoided the bad loss by taking care of Castleton in the LEC semifinals. Similar to Naz, they now have enough of an NPI advantage that the Cadets will be returning to the big dance.
Augsburg was shocked in overtime by the 4th-seeded Gusties in the MIAC semifinal, but the loss did not ding their NPI nearly enough. With teams below them set to play one another, the Auggies will go back-to-back in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens this weekend.
Amherst avoided complete disaster, sneaking out an overtime win against an under-.500 Bowdoin team that could have very well tanked their season. Nevertheless, the NPI gap is large enough, and the remaining opponents are good enough that the Mammoths will qualify for the NCAAs for the fourth consecutive year.
One-Bid Leagues
- SUNYAC
- Plattsburgh (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/58.772)
- Cortland (NPI Rank/Rating: #20/55.693)
- CNE
- Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/58.660)
- Western New England (NPI Rank/Rating: #19/56.060)
- NCHA
- Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/58.590)
- St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #24/53.746)
Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”
Despite having some really strong teams that are playing well, these leagues did not get the path forward to have multiple teams into the field. So regardless of what happens in the last weekend of the season, only one representative from the CNE, NCHA, and SUNYAC will make the NCAA Tournament.
While Endicott, Adrian, and Plattsburgh are the prohibitive home favorites, the bracket could turn many different ways depending on the combination of winners in these three games. Seeding is still at stake, and Adrian’s geography could throw the entire bracket into a tizzy. SNC pulling a pretty substantial upset could save the committee some headaches.
Confirmed Bid Thief
- MIAC
- Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/57.376)
- Saint Benedict (NPI Rank/Rating: #17/56.760)
Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”
The MIAC continues to impress, as both the Bennies and Gusties pulled pretty surprising upsets over Hamline and Augsburg, respectively. While the Pipers and Auggies were clearly the best two teams in the league this season, it wasn’t enough last weekend.
Both CSB and GAC challenged the top two teams in the regular season as well, but still emerged victorious last Saturday. While it doesn’t happen often, we will certainly have a bid thief scenario in 2026. Someone’s bubble has popped a week early, we just don’t know who yet.
Gustavus will travel to St. Cloud this Saturday for what’s sure to be an extremely intense event. One program is looking for its first NCAA tournament appearance, while the other is looking for its 20th. Despite wildly different histories, both teams were neck-and-neck this season, and I expect a classic.
Potential Bid Thieves
- UCHC
- Elmira (NPI Rank/Rating: #18/56.396)
- MAC
- Arcadia (NPI Rank/Rating: #22/54.323)
Definition: “Win and be joyous, breaking the hearts of others.”
While the MIAC champion has already confirmed itself as a bid-stealer, there may be more coming:
Elmira is certainly in the category of a potential bid-stealer. Not only because their UCHC title game opponent, Nazareth, is certainly a lock for the NCAAT win or lose. It’s also because the Soaring Eagles have played Naz as tough as anyone all season long, as the Golden Flyers needed two dramatic late-game goals to claim the sweep of Elmira. If the third time is the charm for Elmira, another bubble will have popped.
Arcadia is tricky, as we can’t surely consider them a bid thief candidate. If Arcadia pulls of the upset of Wilkes in the MAC championship, Arcadia is in. No questions asked. However, with Wilkes’ extremely low strength of schedule, the Colonels are not quite a lock at this point in my eyes. There’s a chance they stay in the field and the MAC is shockingly a two-bid league. But, we can’t say for sure, so I’ll list Arcadia as a potential bid thief for now.
Win Your League, Avoid the Bubble..
- Wilkes (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/61.131)
Definition: “Capture the automatic bid. If not, pray for the right wins around you.”
As I just mentioned, Wilkes shouldn’t mess around this weekend, or their dreams of making the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years may be dashed. Again, there’s a decent chance Wilkes could get in with a loss, but I can’t say that with any level of certainty. Given Wilkes’ low loss count and poor schedule, I’m frankly not sure what a home loss to Arcadia would do to their NPI number. If it did happen, they’d need some other bubble teams to lose in the right spots most likely.
The Bubble
- Williams (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/60.447)
- Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/60.340)
- Hamline (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/59.915)
- Colby (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/59.148)
- UW-Eau Claire(NPI Rank/Rating: #11/58.905)
Definition: “Win as much as possible OR… hope and pray for the right results.”
This group of five are the legitimate bubble teams left in the 25-26 campaign. However, there are tiers to these teams. For example, Williams is in quite a bit better shape than UW-Eau Claire at this point. With three NESCAC teams here, this could get tricky with the math.
Williams is in a pretty decent spot, as they play Amherst in a neutral-site game on Saturday in the NESCAC semifinals, held at 1-seed Middlebury. Win, and the Ephs are a lock. Lose, and they’re still in good shape given the Mammoths’ caliber. However, they could potentially be on the outside looking in with some other upsets.
Middlebury has quite the predicament on its hands. On the bright side, it has the fortune of playing the NESCAC tournament in front of its home fans. On the negative side, home games aren’t quite as advantageous in the NPI than neutral or road games, which is tricky when the math is this close for the last few spots. Mathematically, home losses are punished more, while home wins aren’t as rewarding. If Middlebury defeats Colby in the NESCAC semifinal, they’re locked in. Lose, and they’ll be sweating it out.
As previously mentioned, Hamline was upset by Saint Ben’s last weekend in the MIAC semis. The Pipers would have locked up a bid with a win, but now sit as the last team in entering the final weekend. So unlike the others in this category, the Pipers have no more games on the docket. So, they’ll need to root for some specific results, and for the calculator to give them a fair shot come Sunday evening.
Colby has the aforementioned road tilt at Middlebury. They just were knocked to the wrong side of the bubble after the MIAC chaos. Given they are sitting on the outside looking in, lose, and they’re 100% done for. But, a road win at Middlebury could be massive in potentially jumping Hamline and/or Middlebury. Colby 100% needs it to have any chance at the at-large.
UW-Eau Claire definitely has the lowest odds to get of these five, but there’s a somewhat decent chance nonetheless. On paper, a road game at River Falls is the most difficult game you could possibly play. But, the Blugolds have played RF tough, handing the Falcons their only loss and battling tough the other two match-ups. If UWEC pulls the upset, they still would need a little help, with still no WIAC automatic bid.
Notes/Scenarios
To sum up…
- If Williams and/or Middlebury win their NESCAC semifinals, I believe they will lock up a bid.
- A Middlebury win would effectively eliminate Colby in the process.
- If Colby wins their NESCAC semifinal and loses a hypothetical NESCAC title game, I think they will narrowly be in, but it could be extremely close (provided there’s no bid thieves).
- If Elmira wins the UCHC, there is one less at-large spot for current bubble teams.
- If Arcadia wins the MAC, there is likely one less at-large spot for current bubble teams, depending on if Wilkes still has a chance as a bubble team or not, which I believe they do.
With all these points being made, here is a rooting guide for bubble teams.
- Williams: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Middlebury, UW-River Falls. Nazareth, Wilkes, Norwich, WNE, Plattsburgh
- Middlebury: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Amherst, UW-River Falls, Nazareth, Wilkes, Plattsburgh, Endicott
- Hamline: Root for Amherst, Middlebury, UW-River Falls, Nazareth, Wilkes, Endicott, UMass Boston
- Colby: Root for yourselves (obviously), AND root for Amherst, UW-River Falls, Nazareth, Wilkes, Cortland
- UW-Eau Claire: Root for yourselves (obviously), AND root for Amherst, Middlebury, Nazareth, Wilkes, Gustavus
