With the finality of the season upon us, tensions are high, the stakes are even higher, and hopefully teams can get enough sleep tonight to prepare themselves for what’s sure to be an action-packed Saturday of hockey. Let’s take one final look at where everyone in the NCAA Tournament picture sits heading into these final games.
Before we do that, check out our latest bracketology to get a lay of the land, as we have ten automatic qualifiers, with just four coveted at-large bids.
Locks
- Hobart (NPI Rank/Rating: #1/66.166)
- Endicott (NPI Rank/Rating: #3/58.773)
Definition: “Can make it no matter the circumstances”
What’s so crazy to me is that with just a few games left in the season, we can only truly consider two locks for the tournament. It just goes to show the parity that we are seeing on the top tier of the sport…. after Hobart, who has been locked up for weeks.
Endicott will be returning to the NCAA tournament after another tremendous 20-win season. Endicott took care of Suffolk in the CNE semifinal, avoiding a loss that could bump their NPI down a good bit. Now, they have a road game at UNE for the CNE title. Even with a loss, a road game at the #6 NPI team isn’t going to damage their resume much at all.
Good Spot, but Win Just in Case
- Hamilton (NPI Rank/Rating: #2/59.350)
- UNE (NPI Rank/Rating: #5/58.124)
Definition: “In really good, shape, but capture the automatic bid and eliminate all doubt.”
Hamilton had quite the weekend, escaping Conn. College in overtime of the NESCAC quarterfinals. The loss would have certainly pushed them down much closer to the bubble, but alas, the Continentals outlasted the Camels. Despite a pretty large lead in the NPI, Hamilton has to avoid losing to the NESCAC 6-seed Williams, who has already pulled one upset over Tufts. HC is a different animal than Tufts, but a home loss to the Ephs would make things a little nerve-wracking. I still would like their chances, but they wouldn’t be 100%. Beat Williams, Hamilton is in regardless of NESCAC title game result.
Similarly to Endicott, UNE has a very difficult game left to play in the CNE title, given that it’s a home contest against the current NPI #3. However, they are just a little too close to the rest of the bubble to consider them a lock at this point. If I’m UNE, I would win and erase all doubt, cementing the CNE as a two-bid league. If UNE loses, I still like their chances, but they would need to hope for favorites to win their respective conferences then.
Auto-Bid or Join the Bubble
- Utica (NPI Rank/Rating: #6/58.091)
- Aurora (NPI Rank/Rating: #7/58.091)
Definition: “Find a way to win your conference. If not, you better get some help”
These teams are in very interesting spots, and I can’t say for sure how the math will play out when it’s so close in this grouping of teams.
Utica, fresh off their semifinal win over Nazareth, now hosts Geneseo for the UCHC title game. A strong opponent no doubt, but a potential loss could prove damaging. Being right in the thick of the bubble teams, Utica should eliminate all doubt and win the UCHC. If they lose, home losses are more damaging to the NPI, so that doesn’t help their case. It would no doubt depend on various other games that happen this weekend, so the Pioneer faithful should just hope that Utica can get it done, or else it’s totally dependent on other teams.
Aurora is another case where a win removes all doubt for the Spartans. After pulling off a major road victory over Adrian, they have one more tough test. AU has a road game against St. Norbert, so a loss would not be quite as damaging as Utica’s potential loss. However, there’s no certainty whatsoever as to how the math plays out, and it’s totally dependent on the bubble then.
Auto-Bid or Bust
- St. Norbert (NPI Rank/Rating: #11/57.240)
- Geneseo (NPI Rank/Rating: #13/57.047)
Definition: “Not a true bid thief, but win or go home.”
These two teams are tied to the two I just mentioned (Utica & Aurora) for obvious reasons. Yes, they are their opponents this weekend, so one of each duo is making the NCAA Tournament, no questions asked.
However, where these two groups differ, as they are too far off the bubble at the current moment, so a loss means their season will have ended. I can’t call them true “bid thieves,” as their conference championship game counterparts are not locks to make it whatsoever. Regardless, a win for SNC or Genny takes someone’s spot away.
The Bubble
- Bowdoin (NPI Rank/Rating: #4/58.140)
- Salve Regina (NPI Rank/Rating: #8/57.739)
- Adrian (NPI Rank/Rating: #10/57.488)
Definition: “Win as much as possible OR… hope and pray for the right results.”
While this is effectively the “bubble,” it is very widespread given what these teams have left to play on their schedule. While Bowdoin has a much stronger chance than the other two teams in this grouping, they do have a potential loss left on the schedule, which can’t go unstated.
Bowdoin the semifinals of the NESCAC tournament, and although they sit at #4, the gap isn’t huge with the rest of the teams chasing them down. They have a neutral-site game versus Middlebury. Win that, and they’re in much better shape. They should also root for Hamilton in that instance to avoid having to play Williams (a potential bid thief). If Bowdoin loses their semifinal to Middlebury, they will remain on the bubble, but have to root for very specific results around them just in case there are bid thieves and NPI shifts.
The other two schools have no more current games scheduled, as Salve as an independent, while Adrian was knocked out in the NCHA semifinals by Aurora. While Salve is in a better spot for now (in terms of the NPI), the strength of schedule metric is very bad, and could be impacted by other teams’ results this weekend (mainly Geneseo).
Adrian is in a bit of no man’s land, as they are on the outside looking in currently, but if Salve’s NPI takes a hit, as well as some other bubble teams, there is a chance they can get in. Spoiler: Adrian very much needs Utica and Aurora to win if they are to have a chance.
One-Bid Leagues
- WIAC
- UW-Stout (NPI Rank/Rating: #9/57.561)
- UW-River Falls (NPI Rank/Rating: #45/51.124)
- LEC
- Babson (NPI Rank/Rating: #12/57.084)
- Norwich (NPI Rank/Rating: #15/55.842)
- MIAC
- Saint John’s (NPI Rank/Rating: #18/55.160)
- Gustavus (NPI Rank/Rating: #22/54.511)
- MASCAC
- Anna Maria (NPI Rank/Rating: #21/54.542)
- Westfield State (NPI Rank/Rating: #41/51.717)
- MAC
- Neumann (NPI Rank/Rating: #29/52.684)
- Stevenson (NPI Rank/Rating: #42/51.661)
Definition: “Survive and advance, lose and go home.”
In these conferences, we have do-or-die games this weekend that will seal both teams’ NCAA Tournament fates. With a crowded at-large field, these conferences didn’t quite have the strength, or beat themselves up too much throughout the year to give their league a chance at potentially earning multiple bids.
I thought the LEC could potentially be in two-bid territory, but Babson took one too many bad losses down the stretch. UW-Stout is an interesting case, as I truly feel like their resume should be a few spots higher than where it is at the moment. I also feel that both MIAC teams’ NPI ranks are lower than I expected given the results we’ve seen.
Potential Bid Thieves
- SUNYAC
- Oswego (NPI Rank/Rating: #14/56.518)
- NESCAC
- Middlebury (NPI Rank/Rating: #16/55.463)
- Williams (NPI Rank/Rating: #35/52.070)
Definition: “Win and be joyous, breaking the hearts of others.”
These teams have the chance to play spoiler, extending their own season into the NCAA Tournament, but also take out someone else’s season in the process, effectively taking a spot from a bubble team.
With Hobart being a lock, Oswego doing the unthinkable and ending the NCAA’s longest-ever home winning streak would surely pop someone’s bubble. While no NESCAC team is truly a “lock”, there’s a great chance Hamilton makes it. and a solid chance Bowdoin does. It’s more likely than not that if Williams or Middlebury can win out, they would be a true bid thief in some capacity.
Scenarios
To sum up…
- If Geneseo wins their conference:
- Utica is back on the bubble.
- If St. Norbert wins their conference:
- Aurora is back on the bubble.
- If either Oswego or Williams/Middlebury wins their conference:
- a bubble team is most likely eliminated.
- If both Oswego or Williams/Middlebury wins their conference:
- 2 bubble teams are most likely eliminated.
With all these points being made, here is a rooting guide for teams outside who could conceivably find themselves on the bubble at some point this weekend.
- Hamilton: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Bowdoin, Hobart, Endicott, Utica, Aurora
- UNE: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Hobart, Hamilton, Utica, Aurora
- Utica: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Hobart, Endicott, Hamilton, Aurora
- Aurora: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Hobart, Endicott, Hamilton, Utica
- Bowdoin: Root for yourselves (obviously), but in case you don’t win: root for Hobart, Endicott, Hamilton, Utica, Aurora, Gustavus
- Salve Regina: Root for Hobart, Endicott, Hamilton, Geneseo, Aurora, Anna Maria
- Adrian: Root for Hobart, Endicott, Hamilton, Utica, Aurora
I don’t know if bubble teams should root for Bowdoin, so I left them out in the above points. This is because a Bowdoin loss would hypothetically help other bubble teams, but ONLY if Hamilton wins the NESCAC. (CANNOT AFFFORD A BID THIEF SITUATION!)
