It’s here. The bracket is released. The games are nearly upon us. I wanted to take some time to dive into some interesting facts about the tournament teams, and then provide some predictions for this week’s games! I’ve compiled a list of team stats about each of these schools and provided them below, along with brief rundowns for all twelve tournament teams. Below the bye teams, I will preview all four First Round matchups this weekend! First off, I’ll remind you of what this year’s bracket looks like, and then, I’ll provide my team sheets and analysis.
The Byes
Saturday Schedule
3:00 PM ET- #12 Elmira (20-7-1) @ #5 Plattsburgh (20-6-1)
3:00 PM ET- #11 Nazareth (20-6-1) @ #6 Endicott (22-4-1)
3:00 PM ET- #10 Wilkes (22-4-1) @ #8 Colby (17-6-2)
3:00 PM CT- #9 St. Norbert (24-4-1) @ #7 Gustavus (21-6-0)
#12 Elmira @ #5 Plattsburgh
Saturday afternoon in the North Country, two of the five most accomplished programs in the history of D-III women’s hockey will meet up, as an old ECAC West rivalry will be renewed. Although this year, I wouldn’t consider these two blue bloods on the very top tier of title contenders, both teams are more than capable of putting together a run. There is too much parity in the sport to count these teams out. These schools have a combined 10 national titles and 27 Frozen Fours between the two.
With conference realignment, high travel costs, and the changing landscape of the sport, these teams surprisingly haven’t met since December of 2022 at the annual Norwich tournament. That means the Cardinals and Soaring Eagles didn’t play all of last season, and hadn’t played each other this year either. In fact, the 2023-24 season was the only full season the two programs had not played since their programs both started. PSU leads the all-time series 37-23-3 and is currently on a 4-game win streak against Elmira. While playing at Plattsburgh, the Cardinals lead the series 24-9-1.
What’s a little more relevant, is that this is the 7th time these two have played in the national tournament, pushing it into 3rd place for the most-played series in the NCAA Tourney. Plattsburgh has won 4 of the previous 6 NCAA meetings, including the 2015 National Championship Game.
Common Opponents:
- Plattsburgh swept Norwich both home and away, while Elmira went 2-1 against the Cadets, splitting at home, and winning at Norwich in the NEHC title game.
- Elmira lost at home to Cortland, while Plattsburgh went 2-2 against the Red Dragons. PSU was 2-1 in home games (including a SUNYAC semifinal win), and 0-1 on the road.
- Plattsburgh swept Potsdam, three games to zero (2 on the road), while Elmira suffered an OT loss at the Bears.
- Both Plattsburgh and Elmira got impressive neutral-site wins vs. Nazareth.
Against common opponents, Plattsburgh went 8-2, whereas Elmira went 3-3.
Final Look:
Both teams are playing well. Elmira has won nine straight and finding their groove offensively, while Plattsburgh has won 7 of 8, and played their best hockey of the year the last couple games in the SUNYAC tournament. While Plattsburgh’s Frozen Four streak ended last year, their NCAA Tournament streak seemed to be on life support a couple weeks ago. Combined with a couple serious contenders at the top of the SUNYAC, and a less-than-stellar offense, things looked dire. But as they tend to do, the Cards showed up in crunch time and got their chance at a title, and with a pretty good seed, no less.
Elmira is looking to replicate last year’s history of making a Cinderella-like run to the national championship game. The Soaring Eagles are playing well, but outside of Norwich, they haven’t played many teams near the caliber of Plattsburgh during their winning streak. On the other hand, Plattsburgh is battle-tested as of late. I think home ice could be big, and so could the 5-hour bus ride north.
#11 Nazareth @ #6 Endicott
Saturday afternoon will mark the first-ever meeting between these two programs. This is surprising to me, as I see them not necessarily as blue bloods of the sport, but “new bloods,” who have been consistently successful as of late, but have a lot of work to do to get to the historical levels of the programs at the top of the sport. Since these programs started playing women’s hockey, almost immediately they found success. That is in large part thanks to the administration for hiring great coaches and rallying up support from affiliated parties. Both these schools take hockey seriously, and are both starving for a deep playoff run to help ramp up the excitement around their programs to a fever pitch. Both schools won overtime thrillers to each earn their 4th NCAA bid in program history.
While this is both programs’ 4th trip to the big dance, neither of them has been able to win a playoff game yet. Nazareth has gone 0-2 in First Round games, and 0-1 in the Quarterfinals, where Endicott is just 0-1 in the First Round, and 0-1 in the Quarterfinals, with one other Quarterfinal appearance cut short by Covid. However, the two teams that Endicott lost to in the national tournament went on to win the whole thing (2019 Plattsburgh, 2022 Middlebury). So if Naz walks away with a win Saturday afternoon, I’m sure all the Flyers will be getting their ring sizes measured.
The glaring difference between these two is that although they are both the favorites in their conferences, Nazareth has been able to get the job done four years in a row when it matters, in the conference tournament. Endicott had been upset the last two postseasons, and nearly did so again, squeaking by Curry 1-0 in overtime. So now, which program can earn their first-ever NCAA Tournament win?
Common Opponents:
- For as little connection as there is between these two programs in prior history, there’s not much with common opponents this season, either. Both programs have wins over Wesleyan, Endicott’s coming at home, with Nazareth’s being away from home.
- So both teams are just 1-0 against the singular commonality on their schedules, which even for D-III hockey, is quite rare.
However, both teams have separately played very good teams on their schedules, Nazareth having played the likes of Amherst, Plattsburgh, Cortland, Elmira and Utica (5x!), whereas Endicott has faced Middlebury (2x), St. Norbert, Bowdoin, and Norwich.
Prediction:
This one is really hard to predict, and I think both teams are very solid and are more than capable of beating Middlebury in the quarterfinal game. Both teams play in conferences that provided them some tough tests, but are not as deep as other leagues. In the UCHC, Nazareth had Utica right on their tails, but fended them off yet again. Endicott had a host of solid teams that took turns at slaying the giant, but was able to make it through to the end on top. Like most tournament teams, these programs are red hot, with Naz winning seven straight, and Endicott going 13-0-1 in its last 14.
I truly haven’t a clue in this matchup, but note that Endicott has been able to win a ton of close games lately. Regardless of the victor, this one should be ultra-competitive and exciting between two great teams.
#9 St. Norbert @ #7 Gustavus
While our last two matchups have featured programs from a similar ilk, these two programs have in the past, been quite different. I emphasize “in the past,” because I fully expect this contest to be an absolute nailbiter. This truly has been a season to remember for the Green Knights. After getting oh-so close to the NCAA tournament for the past five or so seasons, they finally have done it under the current coaching regime. This team is very talented and veteran-laden, so they won’t be fazed by the raucous environment in St. Peter. Granted, this is a new level of pressure, but I’d bet on SNC being more than prepared. With the program’s first NCAA appearance in 13 years, and just 2nd ever, I’d expect a pretty sizable Green Knights crowd to travel west.
Gustavus, on the other hand, is used to the spotlight. While most Gustie fans aren’t used to the feeling of not winning the conference, this is still a very good team with the talent to win it all if things go their way, and they can get the consistency from their entire lineup. Despite the MIAC championship streak finally coming to an end, this is the 5th straight NCAA tournament appearance, and this team has beaten the best there is. Gustavus has taken care of business in games it should, and has beaten very quality teams, including Augsburg and River Falls. The consistency of several young players is what the Gusties are relying on, as many program legends have graduated the last couple years.
This is just the 5th time these two programs have met, with the Gusties holding a 4-0 advantage, including a 2-0 edge in St. Peter. This will be the first time these programs have met since the 2017-18 season, and obviously the most important game between these two.
Common Opponents:
Quite a bit of crossover with these two, which is expected, where in the west, there are much fewer leagues.
- Both SNC and GAC swept two game series vs. St. Scholastica, with St. Norbert’s both coming at home, and Gustavus’ sweep being 1H/1A.
- Both schools swept Aurora in 2-game road series as well.
- St. Norbert earned an impressive road win at Hamline, which Gustavus also matched with an OT win of their own. But the Gusties also split a pair of home games against the Pipers. However, GAC won the more important one: the MIAC semifinal.
- #1 Augsburg defeated the Green Knights in Minneapolis, and took 2 of 3 from rival Gustavus. The Gusties lost in St. Peter, and went 1-1 in Minneapolis, losing the MIAC title game in a heartbreaking OT loss.
Against common opponents, St. Norbert went 5-1, whereas Gustavus went 7-3.
Final Look:
On paper, this looks like a game Gustavus should be able to win. Gustavus has played a much tougher schedule, beaten elite opponents, has a great home ice advantage, and fields a team that’s won big in the playoffs before. Also, headed into last weekend, SNC wasn’t outplaying their lesser opponents like they were earlier on in the season. Lately, they definitely weren’t playing their best until last week’s win over Adrian.
But this game isn’t played on paper. I think last week’s win for St. Norbert has the potential to galvanize this group. Now that they finally have the monkey off their back, I think they’ll be able to play a lot more loose. This is sort of the “last dance” approach for the Green Knights as well, as many of their top producers are veteran players. As for Gustavus, they have loads of talent, but with a team so young, can they handle the adversity that comes with playoff hockey? I think this one goes down to the wire.
#10 Wilkes @ #8 Colby
In this matchup, we have another first-ever matchup between two programs. Granted, Wilkes has not been around nearly as long as Colby, and they are 7.5 hours apart when driving, so it’s not the most shocking revelation. While Wilkes has been the beneficiary of the conference realignment that has popped up in the sport, credit to the Colonels for taking advantage and winning their new league. Someone had to, and maybe this is a momentum-starter for the program.
Colby played a rather challenging schedule, and that’s what got them back to the tournament for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. This program has reached new heights in the last few years, and they continue to build on this upward trajectory. Colby is 1-2 in its previous two tournaments. In 2022, they received a bye into the quarterfinals before losing an overtime thriller to Plattsburgh. The following year, they took care of Norwich before falling to eventual national runner-up Amherst. Technically, the Mules are 1-0 at home in NCAA games, so they’ll look to keep that streak going.
Common Opponents:
- Each team has a win over a decent Suffolk team, Colby’s coming at home, while Wilkes’ win was played at a neutral site
With both teams playing in very different conferences, they only had the one common opponent, which isn’t much help when comparing the two squads. For what it’s worth, they both won the singular common game.
Last Look:
Maybe Wilkes can shock the world in this one, but they do have a lot of ground to make up, given the program’s young age. But with their administration and coaching, I would not be shocked to see this team continue their upward trajectory and become the power program in the MAC. Granted, this will be an awesome learning experience, and they’re playing with house money. Hockey is a weird game at times, and you never know what can happen.
On the other hand, the Mules have been playing quite well in the later half of the season, winning eight of their last ten games. I think Colby will flex their muscles to show all the doubters that they did in fact belong in this field. In terms of the ceiling of this team, I do think they have what it takes to make a run. As we’ve seen, they can beat just about anyone on a given day. The special teams have been a massive key to success this season, so look for that to determine just how far the Mules can go.
