I’ve previously written on trying to make sense of the brand-new NPI rankings.  Today, I’ll start what I hope to be a semiregular lookahead to what this year’s national tournament could look like.  In case you missed it, I have already taken a peek at the first snapshot at what the men’s field could look like.  I would recommend taking a look at that, as there is some important information and overall rationale on how these articles will be set up.  Anyways, if you missed our last social media post, you may have gotten a glance at our very first tournament preview with our first Projected Seeds graphic of the 2024-25 season.  In these graphics, I’ll list what the current selections would look like, in this very moment (important qualifier).  Here, I’ll not only talk about these with a little more clarity, but also do my best to project what a bracket would look like again… at this very moment.  Obviously, things are subject to change.  But as those who follow college basketball know, bracketology is as fun as it gets!  Does the “calculator” selection criteria make things a little less exciting?  Possibly, but that doesn’t mean we can’t guess what the committees will do in terms of placing teams!

A couple of disclaimers:

  • I did not create the NPI, nor do I agree with it 100% of the time.  I am just reporting the data.
  • Bracketing is very clearly a hot topic. Usually, it is not the “fairest” outcome, particularly at the Division III level.
    • I am often times a major critic of what the NCAA can get away with in D-III. After following these selections for years, I know what the committees are instructed to do by the NCAA, and at what times they can stray from that.  Thus, I am predicting what I think the committee would do in this hypothetical, not what I personally would do.
  • I have read the championship manuals, and I’ll explain the criteria and rationale behind the predictions when needed!
  • I’m not going to bat 1.000 on all of these, but I’ll do my best to explain what I think the committee would do.  I know these projections can be frustrating to you and your team, but they’re just projections, and I think the more information fanbases have, they can have more rooting interests in games across the country you may not know about.

With all that being said, let’s get into it!  (Just a heads up, this first edition may be a little longer than usual, as it might take some extra explaining for clarity’s sake.)

Format

So how I project this 12-team bracket is fairly simple. There are 8 automatic qualifier conference champions that get into the tournament. The remaining 4 spots are filled by the top 4 ranked at-large teams.

It looks something like this:

  • CNE Champion
  • MAC Champion
  • MIAC Champion
  • NCHA Champion
  • NEHC Champion
  • NESCAC Champion
  • SUNYAC Champion
  • UCHC Champion
  • At-Large #1
  • At-Large #2
  • At-Large #3
  • At-Large #4

Different from the men’s side, not all conference champions are guaranteed an automatic bid.  The WIAC and MASCAC champs do not get bids.  The WIAC only has five teams, one short of the required number (6) for an automatic berth.  The MASCAC has six teams is in its first year of sponsoring women’s hockey, but needs to wait out the two year transition period to earn its automatic bid.  (The MAC is also new to women’s hockey this year, but six of the MAC schools have been full-time members of the conference for other sports for years, which is why they do not have to wait for the transition period to earn an auto-bid.)

Previously, there was one bid reserved for Pool B schools, which in previous seasons was for conferences that were smaller (the WIAC most recently), or independent schools.  With so much conference realignment as of late, the NCAA has eliminated the Pool B terminology, meaning strong programs such as UW-River Falls or UW-Eau Claire has to qualify as an at-large now.

Current Projections as of 12/27/24

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

  • CNE: Endicott (10)
  • MAC: Arcadia (8)
  • MIAC: Augsburg (14)
  • NCHA: St. Norbert (17)
  • NEHC: UMass Boston (33)
  • NESCAC: Amherst (1)
  • SUNYAC: Oswego (4)
  • UCHC: Nazareth (12)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

  • Middlebury (2)
  • Bowdoin (3)
  • Colby (5)
  • Cortland (6)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

  • Plattsburgh (7)
  • UW-Eau Claire (9)
  • UW-River Falls (11)
  • Adrian (13)

Discussion

  • Automatic qualifiers are determined by the current conference leader.  This does not necessarily mean points in their respective conference standings, but points percentage, as I don’t think it’s fair to punish teams who have played less games.  It seems like a cleaner way to do things.  I’ll give you an example:
    • In the NEHC, Elmira has 19 points.  UMass Boston has 18.  However, Elmira has played 8 games for a point percentage of 0.7916.  UMass Boston has played 6 games for a point percentage of 1.000.  Therefore, UMass Boston is the pick here.
  • As you can see, the last teams into the field via at-large selections have to be ranked fairly high in the NPI with #7 being first on the chopping block, meaning six teams ranked below Plattsburgh at 7, would qualify with automatic bids.
    • It is early, but to see several ranked teams in our latest Top 15 Poll not in the field is a wild sight for a so-called national tournament.  However, it still is early in the season.
    • The “NESCAC fatigue” that many D-III women’s hockey fans have felt the last 3-4 years is not going anywhere in this first projection. Thus far, the NPI puts 4 teams in (the top 5, no less), with 1/3 of the field coming from the NESCAC.
  • Multi-bid Leagues:
    • NESCAC: (4)
    • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

  1. Amherst
  2. Middlebury
  3. Bowdoin
  4. Oswego
  5. Colby
  6. Cortland
  7. Arcadia
  8. Endicott
  9. Nazareth
  10. Augsburg
  11. St. Norbert
  12. UMass Boston

Projected Bracket

First Round

11) St. Norbert @ 10) Augsburg

9) Nazareth @ 6) Cortland

8) Endicott @ 7) Arcadia

12) UMass Boston @ 5) Colby

Quarterfinals

11) SNC/10) Augsburg @ 1) Amherst

9) Nazareth/6) Cortland @ 4) Oswego

8) Endicott/7) Arcadia @ 2) Middlebury

12) UMB/5) Colby @ 3) Bowdoin

Geographical Breakdown

  • Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
  • Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

 

Rationale

Based off of the championship manual, many are aware that the NCAA is supposed to avoid paying for flights if at all possible.  If schools are more than 500 miles apart, then the traveling school is eligible for a flight.  So if at all possible, the committee very much tries to avoid flights, which can lead to some uneven brackets.  If you are curious on the mileage differences between the schools, check out this link, which the NCAA uses itself.  The NCAA also tries its hardest to avoid teams from the same conference facing off in a First Round game.  Quarterfinal intraconference games are fine, but avoiding the First Round is a priority.  Also, there is some additional verbiage from the NCAA this year, trying to protect the top four ranked teams as much as possible, and potentially giving hosting priority to available/qualified rinks.  With this added emphasis, I assume the NCAA will try to give byes to the top four seeds in almost all circumstances.  Check out Section 2.5 in the Championship manual for this.  For almost all projections, I will assume the higher seeded team has availability to host in their rink, barring specific circumstances, which I would then mention.

The Byes

With a fairly simple, 12-team bracket, 4 teams will get byes.  Based off this additional “top four ranked teams” protection, I strongly believe the committee is going to try their best to give the top 4 ranked teams the bye at the very least.  Note, this is very new to include something like this in the championship manual.  I assume that the 2024 debacle, putting #1 vs. #3 in a quarterfinal, may have pushed the committee to emphasize this going forward.  In this case, the top 4 of Amherst, Middlebury, Bowdoin & Oswego get the byes.

The 10E/2W Split

Over the next few weeks, you will hear me talk about what kind of “split” we will have in these projections.  This split is a 10/2 split, with 10 East teams, and 2 West teams.  I have never seen a split this drastic, and if we see an actual split like this come early March, expect the NPI to be altered heavily.  Again, it is early, but this is a ridiculous setup for now.  With most west teams being so far removed from the rest of the schools, they will get their own pod of sorts.  With only two west teams qualifying, they will make an easy first round matchup due to the mileage restrictions.  Thus, the 11 seed, St. Norbert, will travel just under 300 miles west to Minneapolis, to take an Augsburg, in what would be their first-ever NCAA tourney appearance.  The winner would be flying out east for Round 2.

Something to keep in mind with the East/West split, is that the NCAA is “piloting” a pre-determined host for the Frozen Four this year on the women’s side, with Hunt Arena of UW-River Falls winning the bid to host.  The pre-determined host has been done every other year on the men’s side for a while, and the women’s side is going to give it a go in 2025 and 2027 and see how successful it is. (The NCAA also tried this on the women’s side back in 2013, and it was not as successful as they would have hoped.)

Keep in mind, that UWRF hosted last year as well, due to their undefeated team making it through to the Frozen Four.  I attended the championship game last year, and can back up the claims from the Championships Committee that UWRF was a marvelous host in 2024.  Granted, it always helps when the team hosting makes it through to the title game.  I expect a strong effort/showing out of the hosts yet again, regardless if the Falcons make it that far again.  However, only two west teams in this projection means more likely than not, there would be lots of frequent flyer miles being used by those in attendance in 2025.

Fairly Simple?

With so many east teams in this projection, the first round matchups are quite easy to put together.  #5 Colby, as the highest seed to not earn a bye, hosts the bottom team in the field, #12 UMB.  With the 10 and 11 seeds being out west, we will just reshuffle the ideal pairings to give the higher seeded teams the appropriate opponent.  #6 Cortland hosts #9 Naz, while #7 Arcadia hosts #8 Endicott.

Quarterfinal Conditions

As I referenced before, for the most part, east schools are close together, with only a few outliers being out of driving range (500 miles) from one another.  Where you do have to look usually, is about as far northeast as you can get.  So let’s take a look at two teams from the Pinetree State of Maine: Bowdoin & Colby.  In terms of potential games depending on who could advance, Colby is more than 500 miles away from Oswego, so the traditional #4 vs. #5 hypothetical matchup will have to be shuffled.  Also, Nazareth is separated by more than 500 miles from both Bowdoin and Colby.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

In earning the #1 seed, Amherst in theory, would get the most advantageous path (in terms of seeding) available.  A home matchup with the #10/#11 winner is about as advantageous of a route to the Frozen Four as possible (again, in theory).  We already knew the NCAA was going to have to pay for one flight in the quarterfinals with just two west teams playing in the first round, so Amherst it is.

As the #2, Middlebury would then get a slightly harder matchup than the Mammoths, hosting the #8/#7 winner, either Endicott or Arcadia.

Bowdoin as the #3 seed, would hope to get the #9 vs. #6 game.  But, with a Nazareth (#9) upset away from paying for a flight, the NCAA would move that matchup to #4 Oswego, as the Lakers would get the winner of Nazareth and Cortland.

The Polar Bears only remaining option is the #5/#12 winner.  This in theory is a bit of a tougher path provided the favorite wins. There’s a chance for conference rematches between Bowdoin/Colby and Oswego/Cortland, but remember, these are permitted in the Quarterfinal round.

Dollars & “Sense”

As I did in my men’s post, we do need to talk the figures at the bottom line, and like it or not, that’s something the NCAA strongly considers.  In this hypothetical, here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up the cost for.  It’s a little simpler, when we know who the host of the Frozen Four is, however.

First Two Rounds:

  • Quarterfinal: 1 flight for SNC/Augsburg winner to Amherst

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

  • 3 flights guaranteed; 2 from right side of bracket, 1 from bottom left
  • 1 additional flight if Amherst defeats St. Norbert/Augsburg winner

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 4-5 flights.

Wrap-Up

If you made it this far, thanks for reading!  Remember, this is all very early, and the goal is to give everyone some context and perspective about the home stretch of the season.  With this all explained, the next edition won’t be nearly as long.  Again, I am open to hear any questions/comments you have down below!

Check out the men’s mid-season lookahead here:

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