We’ve made it.  The final week of the season is upon us, and Selection Sunday is just five short days away.  We learned a good deal last weekend, in what was arguably the best day we’ve ever seen in the sport of Division III hockey.  Playoffs are intense every year, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted the craziness that went down past Saturday.  The stakes will be even higher this week, with Championship weekend approaching.

Here is last week’s projection for reference.

Current Projections as of 3/4/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (8)
• MAC: Wilkes (13)
• MIAC: Augsburg (2)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (10)
• NEHC: Norwich (16)
• NESCAC: Amherst (3)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (6)
• UCHC: Nazareth (17)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Middlebury (1)
• UW-River Falls (4)
• Gustavus (5)
• Colby (7)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Plattsburgh (9)
• Adrian (11)
• Cortland (12)
• Arcadia (14)

Discussion

• Despite a plethora of semifinal and quarterfinal playoff matchups, we have no teams entering or exiting this week’s projected field.
• A few conference leaders were tested in their semifinal games, though.
  • Norwich survived 3OT against William Smith, before the Cadets finally broke through after controlling most of the game.
  • In the longest game in D-III women’s ice hockey history, Augsburg defeated Saint Mary’s 3-2 in 4OT in what was a neck-and-neck affair.  The Auggies will host the MIAC championship game Saturday night after defeating the Cardinals for the third time in eight days.
  • Oswego danced with the devil again, but held on for a 2-1 win over Canton.  Goaltender Lexi Levy is a brick wall in net.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • After a split against the Pipers last weekend, Gustavus rebounded in a big way, shutting out Hamline 4-0 in an impressive showing.
    • The quality win moved Gustavus up to the #5 seed, ahead of Oswego and Colby.
  • While Oswego stayed put at #6, Colby fell two spots to #7 and the last team in the field.
    • Although Colby defeated Trinity (despite getting outplayed most of the game), the Mules were likely dropped in the math due to Middlebury’s struggle against Williams, getting pushed to overtime before squeaking by with the win.
  • In what seems like the 100th time, Norwich and Nazareth have flipped seeds at the bottom of the field.  Norwich’s escape act against William Smith was still enough to bump them ahead of Naz for the 11-seed, who defeated a Chatham team who has really struggled this season.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Plattsburgh.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • MIAC: (2)
    • As detailed in last week’s bubble watch, we’re looking at a few spots remaining, and both a NESCAC and MIAC team are right in the thick of things with Colby and Gustavus solely on the bubble.  We’ll see which leagues end up with the extra bids.  Don’t count out the SUNYAC for multiple bids, either.

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Augsburg
3. Amherst
4. UW-River Falls
5. Gustavus
6. Oswego
7. Colby
8. Endicott
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Norwich
12. Nazareth

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Wilkes @ 8) Endicott

9) St. Norbert @ 5) Gustavus

11) Norwich @ 7) Colby

12) Nazareth @ 6) Oswego

Quarterfinals

10) Wilkes/8) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury

9) SNC/5) GAC @ 4) UW-River Falls

11) Norwich/7) Colby @ 2) Augsburg

12) Nazareth/6) Oswego @ 3) Amherst

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

 

Rationale

The 8E/4W Split

In our last edition of bracketology, we hold with the 8/4 split for now.  Again, with Gustavus right on the bubble, this could go the way of a 9/3 split, but I think River Falls has locked itself in.  So, we won’t get back to 10/2 territory.  If four west teams do make it, it creates a very different bracket in most cases, so keep an eye out for this.

The Byes

Just like last week, the top four seeds will receive the byes, and the order will stay the same. #1 Middlebury, #2 Augsburg, #3 Amherst, and #4 River Falls.  Augsburg is closing in one the #1 overall seed, however.

Who’s in the West pod?

With the four west teams in the projected field, and two having byes, we will have one west team outside of the “western pod.”  #2 Augsburg and #4 River Falls have byes, which means the two remaining teams will play in Round 1.  #9 St. Norbert will visit St. Peter to take on #5 Gustavus.

When making a 12-team field traditionally, #5 plays #4 in the quarterfinals.  Thus, Gustavus would potentially travel to UWRF in Round 2.  Seeing the Gusties and Falcons early in the national tournament would be the least surprising thing ever.  This is the most-played playoff matchup in the history of the sport, meeting 10 previous times.  Gustavus would get a pretty tough draw here, playing #9 in Round 1, but it’s the path of least resistance for the NCAA.

Where the NCAA wouldn’t get off easy, is Augsburg hosting an east team in the quarterfinals.  In this situation, we will have an east team flying west for the quarterfinals.

Travel Conditions

Within the west region, we have no travel problems, as everyone is within driving distance of 500 miles.  Out east, we just have a potential issue.  Colby, given its location in the extreme northeast, is outside of driving distance of Oswego and Nazareth.  So we have to keep that in mind when building the bracket.

Setting the Remaining First Round Matchups

With Gustavus and Norbert already accounted for, let’s look at the remaining teams playing in the First Round.

• #6 Oswego
• #7 Colby
• #8 Endicott
• #10 Wilkes
• #11 Norwich
• #12 Nazareth

Ideally, we would just pair these teams off with the highest and lowest teams facing off.  So, that gives us #12 Nazareth @ #6 Oswego, #11 Norwich @ #7 Colby, and #10 Wilkes @ #8 Endicott.  With Colby facing Norwich in this projection, there is no travel issues to speak of!  It’s not perfect, as #6 Oz, #7 Colby, and #8 Endicott all get much easier (by seed) games than #5 Gustavus.  But, it’s the best the NCAA would be willing to do.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

This is a very familiar setup to last week.  As I mentioned, we will have #4 River Falls hosting the winner of #5 Gustavus and #9 St. Norbert.

#1 Middlebury, as the top seed, will face the winner of the First Round game featuring the two middle seeds: #8 Endicott and #10 Wilkes.

#2 Augsburg would be next up, as they would face the next-highest seed, assuming favorites win.  That would be #7 Colby.  So, the #11 Norwich @ #7 Colby winner would be the lucky team to fly into MSP to face the Auggies in the quarterfinals.

Lastly, we have the #12 Nazareth @ #6 Oswego winner heading to #3 Amherst to face the Mammoths.

Frozen Four Placement

This final piece remains the exact same as last week.  With #1 and #4 traditionally being paired together in a potential semifinal, we would have #1 Middlebury and #4 River Falls being place on one side of the bracket.

The, #2 Augsburg’s pod and #3 Amherst’s pod would be placed together on the other side.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight- the Norwich/Colby winner to Augsburg for a quarterfinal matchup

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 2 flights from top left and bottom right quadrants of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Norwich/Colby advances from bottom left quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

As we reach the penultimate edition of women’s bracketology, I want to thank you all for continuing to tune in week after week and read my projections.  Hopefully, this has provided you all with some insight and additional entertainment throughout the course of the regular season.

One last note: I will have one final update regarding the bracket projection.  Selection Day is this upcoming Sunday, and I will post one final bracketology Sunday afternoon following the NESCAC title game.  Come back then for the final prediction!