Playoffs are here in Division III hockey, and while two conference have started their respective tournaments this past weekend, we also had quite the finish to the regular season for the rest of the leagues.  Upsets and wild momentum swings were littered across the national scoreboard, and we now have a much clearer picture at what our NCAA Tournament could look like.

For comparison’s sake, here is last week’s tournament projection.

Current Projections as of 2/25/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (8)
• MAC: Wilkes (14)
• MIAC: Augsburg (2)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (10)
• NEHC: Norwich (17)
• NESCAC: Amherst (3)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (5)
• UCHC: Nazareth (16)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Middlebury (1)
• UW-River Falls (4)
• Colby (6)
• Gustavus (7)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Plattsburgh (9)
• Cortland (11)
• Bowdoin (12)
• Adrian (13)

Discussion

With all the craziness that took past the past few days, we have some new conference leaders, and new at-large candidates.

• New Team in Field:
  • Here come the Mules.  After a fairly slow start, Colby is on a roll, winning 7 of their last 8 games, including 2 apiece against NESCAC favorites Middlebury and Amherst.
    • Despite a weaker non-conference schedule than some, these last few wins have been massive for Colby, vaulting them all the way up to #6 in the NPI, up four spots from last week.
    • While multiple teams suffered upsets, it was the Tuesday upset of Plattsburgh that proved to be the costly one.  Williams took down the Cardinals 3-2, and after the weekend’s results, perennial contender Plattsburgh now has work to do, sitting as the First Team Out.
• New Conference Leaders:
  • Staying in the NESCAC, Colby’s sweep of Middlebury meant there was a chance the Panthers could lose out on the #1 spot in its conference tournament.  4 points back, Amherst needed to clear Midd, since the Panthers owned the tiebreaker.
    • The Mammoths of Amherst were able to knock Middlebury from its perch, capturing its third consecutive NESCAC regular season crown.
      • Amherst took 5/6 points against Hamilton with a pair of victories, jumping Middlebury for the chance at home ice in the NESCAC tourney.
  • Though both teams were tied, Augsburg took firm control of the MIAC this past weekend, winning its first conference championship since 2000!
    • The Auggies swept a good Saint Mary’s team to pick up all 6 points available.
    • On the other hand, Gustavus played another playoff-bound MIAC team in Hamline, but had a much tougher time.  Gustavus had a very poor effort, splitting the series, and was fortunate to escape with one win.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • The Gusties’ brutal weekend cost them mightily, as they’ve slipped from the #2 seed, to the last team in the field, as the #7 seed.  When it’s this close in the rankings, you can’t afford a bad weekend.
  • The Auggies’ two impressive wins over SMU put them into the 2-hole, capturing it from their MIAC rival.
  • River Falls blasted Eau Claire yet again, putting up 9 goals for the third straight game.  It was enough for them to jump up one seed line to #4, and potentially, bye territory.
  • Oswego and Cortland played the series of the weekend, with both teams playing a pair of nailbiters that had massive postseason implications.
    • In Game 1 at Oswego, Cortland scored with the netminder pulled to send it to overtime, where no one found the back of the net resulting in a tie.
    • In Game 2, we saw more overtime, where Oswego capitalized on a costly Cortland error to give the Lakers the OT win.
      • This locked up the SUNYAC for Oz, and also put them in an amazing spot to make the tournament, jumping up one seed line to #5.
  • With all of these teams jumping Gustavus, let’s not forget Colby’s big weekend, as they slot ahead of the Gusties at #6.
  • As we’ve seen before, the two bottom teams in the field have flip-flopped once again, as now Nazareth holds the 11 seed, with Norwich as the 12 seed.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Plattsburgh.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • MIAC: (2)
    • Since the NCAA began using math to determine NCAA participants, we’ve seen an extremely high percentage of NESCAC representation in the postseason.  With playoffs upon us, it’s looking likely we get a 3-bid NESCAC.

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Augsburg
3. Amherst
4. UW-River Falls
5. Oswego
6. Colby
7. Gustavus
8. Endicott
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Nazareth
12. Norwich

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Wilkes @ 8) Endicott

11) Nazareth @ 5) Oswego

9) St. Norbert @ 7) Gustavus

12) Norwich @ 6) Colby

Quarterfinals

10) Wilkes/8) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury

11) Nazareth/5) Oswego @ 4) UW-River Falls

9) SNC/7) GAC @ 2) Augsburg

12) Norwich/6) Colby @ 3) Amherst

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 8E/4W Split

We stick with the 8/4 split, for now.  For the first time in quite a while, this looks to be in potential danger though.  With the Gusties sitting squarely on the bubble, don’t be surprised if we end up at 9 east teams and just 3 west teams.

The Byes

With this setup, this will allow us to give the top 4 seeds a First Round bye, as they should.  The order continues to shuffle at the top though.  With #4 River Falls knocking Gustavus out of bye-territory, they join #3 Amherst, #2 Augsburg, and #1 Middlebury with the first weekend off.

Who’s in the West pod?

With #4 River Falls picking up the bye this week, we still have two west teams getting a bye, the other being #2 Augsburg.  That means one of these two will face the winner of the other two west teams who are playing in Round 1: #7 Gustavus and #9 St. Norbert.  This would create a west pod, while the fourth west team would have to play in its own pod, causing an expensive flight for East teams.

When pairing up a traditional 12-team field, you ideally would want #2 facing #7 in a quarterfinal.  When you look at the seeds I listed above, that makes an equitable matchup with the winner of #9 St. Norbert and #7 Gustavus heading to #2 Augsburg in the quarters.  It’s no 10 vs. 7, but we’ll take it.

River Falls on the other hand, will host its own pod, featuring two of the remaining east teams to play in Round 1.

Setting the Remaining First Round Matchups

With Gustavus and Norbert already accounted for, let’s look at the remaining teams playing in the First Round.

• #5 Oswego
• #6 Colby
• #8 Endicott
• #10 Wilkes
• #11 Nazareth
• #12 Norwich

Ideally, we would just pair these teams off with the highest and lowest teams facing off.  So, that gives us #12 Norwich @ #5 Oswego, #11 Naz @ #6 Colby, and #10 Wilkes @ #8 Endicott.  However, we run into a bit of a problem when doing that.

Travel Conditions

While we don’t have any travel concerns within the west pod, the addition of Colby to the projected field provides a couple red flags to building this bracket.

#6 Colby with its far-northeast location is actually not within driving distance of both #5 Oswego (517 miles), and #11 Nazareth (558 miles).  That’s not to say the NCAA wouldn’t put one of these two with Colby under any circumstance, but I think they try to avoid it if they can.

Switching Two First-Round Opponents

With the above travel conditions listed, it doesn’t make sense for #6 Colby and #11 Nazareth to face off in Round 1, even if the seeds suggest they do so.  Thus, we will have to swap Nazareth with one of the other away teams in the First Round games.  With both teams just off by one seed line, I decided to flip Nazareth and Norwich.

So, while the #10 Wilkes @ #8 Endicott game stays the same, we now have #12 Norwich heading to #6 Colby, and #11 Nazareth making the short trip to #5 Oswego.

Colby gets a small break (according to the seeding), and Oswego gets a small disadvantage.  However, this is a tiny issue, when it comes to the NCAA.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

As stated, we will have #2 Augsburg hosting the winner of #7 Gustavus and #9 St. Norbert.

#1 Middlebury, as the top seed, will get the winner of the game featuring the two middle seeds: #8 Endicott and #10 Wilkes.

With Auggie off the table, next up is #3 Amherst, who would traditionally get the 6-seed’s matchup.  Thus, Amherst and Orr Rink would host the winner of #6 Colby and #12 Norwich, potentially getting Mammoths-Mules part 3 (or 4)!

Finally, we come to the #4 Falcons of UW-River Falls.  With just one matchup left, it’s the one that involves a flight pre-Frozen Four  (Yes, I know it’s confusing with the FF also being held in River Falls).  Thus, the winner of #11 Nazareth and #5 Oswego will be flying west to Minneapolis, and then taking the short drive back east across the St. Croix River to Hunt Arena.

Just like last week’s edition, if all home teams win in Round 1, getting #8 vs. #1, #7 vs. #2, #6 vs. #3 and #5 vs. #4 is as perfect as it gets, even if the first round matchups themselves aren’t perfect.

Frozen Four Placement

With #1 and #4 traditionally being paired together in a potential semifinal, we would have #1 Middlebury and #4 River Falls being place on one side of the bracket.

The, #2 Augsburg’s pod and #3 Amherst’s pod would be placed together on the other side.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight- the Nazareth/Oswego winner to UW-River Falls for a quarterfinal matchup

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 2 flights from top left and bottom right quadrants of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Nazareth/Oswego advances from bottom left quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks so much for reading Edition #8 of women’s bracketology.  With the playoffs upon us, I’ll be posting an article later in the week regarding the likelihood each team gets in, and who you should be rooting for if you’re a fan of one of these contenders!  As always, come on back next week, and please comment below!