As we cross past the midway part of February, we are officially entering playoff mode.  On the women’s side, the regular season has concluded for both the NCHA and NEHC, with their respective conference tournaments starting this upcoming weekend.  We have just three weeks left until Selection Sunday.  When needed, particularly the last couple weeks, I will try to take more frequent looks at the projected national tournament when needed.  So everyone is up to speed in terms of who they should be rooting for in conference playoffs.  If you want a sneak peak on who to root for, I’ll have a brief lookahead at the end of this article!

In case you missed it, here is last week’s similar but marginally different bracket projection.

Current Projections as of 2/18/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (8)
• MAC: Wilkes (13)
• MIAC: Gustavus (2)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (11)
• NEHC: Norwich (17)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (1)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (6)
• UCHC: Nazareth (18)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Amherst (3)
• Augsburg (4)
• UW-River Falls (5)
• Plattsburgh (7)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Cortland (9)
• Colby (10)
• Adrian (12)
• Bowdoin (14)

Discussion

• While last week featured a couple big-time upsets, there were only a few changes of note to our projected field.
• With three of the four teams in the “First Four Out” losing or tying to lesser foes, no one new moved into the projected field.
  • Cortland suffered a home tie Friday to a struggling Potsdam team.
  • Colby split this past weekend with Wesleyan, the last-place team in the NESCAC.
  • Bowdoin also suffered a split at the hands of Connecticut College, and were lucky to score a late goal in Game 2 to salvage the split.
• Conference Races:
  • We have a new conference leader for the moment, but it involves two top four teams, so no one exits the field.
    • Augsburg suffered an overtime loss against an underrated St. Ben’s team, taking 4/6 points this past weekend.
    • With Gustavus’ sweep of St. Scholastica, the Auggies and Gusties are now tied at 42 points with each team getting one win against the other back in their December series.  According to the MIAC website, GAC would own the tiebreaker at the moment, as they have one more regulation win in conference play.
    • Both teams have very tough tests this weekend though, as the MIAC did a great job scheduling high-intensity games in the regular-season finale.  Augsburg has Saint Mary’s, while Gustavus has Hamline.
      • This last weekend will prove massive, not only for conference supremacy and home ice, but for potential NCAA seeding purposes.
• Seed Line Shifts
  • Although Augsburg was well ahead in the NPI last week, they slipped back 2 spots to #4 in the NPI, following the OT loss.
    • Gustavus and Amherst moved up one spot after their sweeps, to #2 and #3, respectively.
  • This past weekend, Oswego’s two wins against Morrisville were enough to jump their rivals Plattsburgh in the NPI.  The Lakers move to #6, while the Cards slip to #7.
  • At the bottom of the projected field, Norwich jumps Nazareth for the 11-seed, as the Flyers fall to the 12th spot.
    • This is most likely due to Naz’s UCHC rival Utica falling in an upset to Manhattanville.  While it gives the Flyers a little more breathing room in the conference standings, it comes at a slight cost with a lower seed in this projection.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Cortland.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • MIAC: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)
  • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Gustavus
3. Amherst
4. Augsburg
5. UW-River Falls
6. Oswego
7. Plattsburgh
8. Endicott
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Norwich
12. Nazareth

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Wilkes @ 8) Endicott

9) St. Norbert @ 5) UW-River Falls

11) Norwich @ 7) Plattsburgh

12) Nazareth @ 6) Oswego

Quarterfinals

10) Wilkes/8) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury

9) SNC/5) UWRF @ 4) Augsburg

11) Norwich/7) Plattsburgh @ 2) Gustavus

12) Nazareth/6) Oswego @ 3) Amherst

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 8E/4W Split

Just as it’s been in the last couple editions of bracketology, we are still sticking at an 8/4 split, with 3 west teams in the top 5 seeds.  Like last week, we will have a couple travel issues with this split.

The Byes

The top 4 seeds will get byes in this scenario as they should.  Again, like last week, we will have two MIAC and two NESCAC schools earning those byes.  However, the order of these four shuffle for the second straight week.  Thus, #1 Middlebury, #2 Gustavus, #3 Amherst, and #4 Augsburg will get the byes in this scenario.

Travel Conditions

If you notice a theme, yes, this will also be similar to last week.  We don’t have any major mileage concerns within each region.

Who’s in the West pod?

Unfortunately in a 12-team bracket, we will have one west team not fitting into one “pod,” as those are only three teams wide.  The Gusties and Auggies have earned byes, meaning #9 St. Norbert will head to #5 River Falls for Round 1.

With #5 (UWRF) being the highest seed to not earn a bye, the winner of the RF-SNC game will face the lower ranked of the two MIAC schools.  With Gustavus being #2, and Augsburg being #4, that puts Augsburg into the west pod with River Falls and St. Norbert.  This creates a nice, potential #5 vs. #4 in the quarterfinal.  Although, #9 in Round 1 is a tough draw for the #5 seed.

GAC, on the other hand, will have a different pod of its own, held in the west, but not featuring west teams.

Setting the Remaining First Round Matchups

With River Falls and Norbert already accounted for, let’s look at the remaining teams playing in the First Round.

• #6 Oswego
• #7 Plattsburgh
• #8 Endicott
• #10 Wilkes
• #11 Norwich
• #12 Nazareth

Like last week, we will have an easy time pairing these teams up.  Despite a couple of these teams swapping seed lines, the teams did so on both sides of the bracket, so actually, the same matchups will carry over from last week.  #12 Naz will take the short, 74-mile trip to #6 Oswego.  #11 Norwich will face off in a North Country showdown at #7 Plattsburgh.  The two middle teams remaining are #10 Wilkes out of the MAC, heading to the CNE leader, #8 Endicott.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

As previously mentioned, the west pod is set, with #4 Augsburg hosting the winner of #5 UWRF and #9 SNC.  The other three First Round matchups we just created now need to be assigned to one of the other three bye teams.

#1 Middlebury, like last week, will get the winner of the middle two seeds, #8 Endicott and #10 Wilkes.

Next up, the #7/#11 winner of Plattsburgh and Norwich will play the next highest seed, #2 Gustavus.  This is the only option that we have, and I know it’s not ideal.  But with as many west teams getting a bye as there are playing in Round 1, this is the only way to go.  Thus, there will be a matchup of two blue bloods in the quarterfinals, as either Norwich or Plattsburgh will be heading to southern Minnesota to face off against Gustavus.

Finally, #3 Amherst gets the winner of #6 and #12, Oswego and Nazareth.

If home teams win in Round 1, getting #8 vs. #1, #7 vs. #2, #6 vs. #3 and #5 vs. #4 is as perfect as it gets, even if Round 1 isn’t perfect.

Frozen Four Placement

With #1 and #4 traditionally being paired in a potential semifinal, the west pod of Augsburg would be placed with #1 Middlebury in one semifinal.  Side note: a Middlebury-Augsburg semifinal would be a rematch of the first national championship at the D-III level for women’s hockey, the 2000 AWCHA title.

On the other hand, we get the pods of #2 Gustavus and #3 Amherst on the other side of the bracket, which could provide us with another rematch, and one that was much, much more recent, featuring the longest title game in the history of the sport.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight- the Norwich/Plattsburgh winner to Gustavus for a quarterfinal matchup

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 2 flights from top left and bottom right quadrants of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Norwich/Plattsburgh advances from top right quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks for coming back for this week’s Bracketology!  As I mentioned above, we only have three full weeks before Selection Sunday.  This week, we will have multiple conference tournaments starting.  Below, I included what to look for in those.  Leave any comments or questions you may have!

NEHC:

The NEHC will certainly be a one-bid league in 2025.  Regardless of who wins the conference tournament, they will be the only representative in the NCAA Tournament.  Norwich is the favorite, with home ice throughout the tournament, provided they keep wining, and is the highest ranked team in the NPI at #17.  However, there is not enough high-quality wins here for the Cadets to build an at-large case.

If you are a fan of a team outside of the NEHC, there’s really no rooting interest here.  However, there is no denying that Norwich and Elmira are the two favorites, and have the most talent in this league by quite a while.

NCHA:

It’s likely that the NCHA will be a one-bid league as well.  Similar to the NEHC, there is a two-horse race atop this league.  St. Norbert and Adrian are ranked #11 and #12 in the NPI, respectively.  If one of these teams loses to the other in the NCHA title game only, there is a chance they could have enough to make the field.  They’re going to need help though.

Both teams challenged themselves in the non-conference, which makes up for a not-so-great bottom of their conference schedule.  I think the most likely scenario for a 2-bid NCHA is St. Norbert beating the Bulldogs in the title game, and hoping Adrian’s hypothetical two wins against a good Concordia-Wisconsin team is enough to get them into at-large territory (Thank the NCHA and their series format for the shot at getting two wins).  Also, a road loss at SNC is not quite as damaging to the NPI as a home loss.

If either team wants a chance at an at-large though, they will need help outside of the NCHA, as well.  If you’re an Adrian or SNC fan, and hoping for a little extra cushion, root against the bubble teams the next couple weeks, mainly Plattsburgh, Cortland, Colby and Bowdoin.