As another week of D-III hockey has gone by, we have seen the intensity of the games heighten, with rivalries being settled and several upsets across the country.  Let’s take a peek at what has changed, and what stays the same in this week’s NCAA Tournament projection!

For reference, here is last week’s post.

Current Projections as of 2/11/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (8)
• MAC: Wilkes (14)
• MIAC: Augsburg (2)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (11)
• NEHC: Norwich (19)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (1)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (7)
• UCHC: Nazareth (18)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Gustavus (3)
• Amherst (4)
• UW-River Falls (5)
• Plattsburgh (6)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Cortland (9)
• Colby (10)
• Bowdoin (12)
• Adrian (13)

Discussion

• In another jam-packed week of D-III hockey, we had plenty of results that impacted the national tournament race as we approach the last couple weeks of the regular season.
• New Team in Field:
  • After a one-week absence, the Falcons of River Falls notched two massive road wins this past week to put themselves back into the projected field, moving from the first team out at #8, to #5 in the NPI.
    • The Falcons snuck by a good Saint Mary’s team in Winona Tuesday night, with a last minute overtime goal to salvage the victory.
    • Then on Saturday, the Falcons blew out their rivals, UW-Eau Claire, another quality team.
  • After the hot start, Bowdoin has now lost 5 of 6, getting swept this past week at the hands of Hamilton.  Now, the Polar Bears falling out of the field means UWRF has moved up to the 5 seed.
• Conference Races:
  • No new conference leaders, but plenty of drama.
  • In the UCHC, Nazareth and Utica split a pair of one-goal wins, meaning Nazareth holds onto their 2 point lead in conference play, and their automatic bid for now.
  • In the NESCAC, Middlebury now has first place to themselves, as they sweep Trinity, while Amherst gets swept by Colby.
  • In the MAC, Arcadia and Wilkes battled to a 0-0 tie, in which Wilkes won the shootout, putting the Colonels up four points on the Knights in MAC play.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • With Colby sweeping Amherst, the Mammoths fall from #2, but somehow stay at #4.  Augsburg and Gustavus earned a pair of sweeps this past weekend, moving up to #2 and #3, respectively.
  • Endicott tied Western New England on Saturday, before winning in a shootout.  That combined with a pair of Oswego wins over Canton, means those two flip-flop in the seeding, leaving Oswego at #7, and Endicott at the #8 seed.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Cortland.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • MIAC: (2)
  • NESCAC: (2)
  • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Augsburg
3. Gustavus
4. Amherst
5. UW-River Falls
6. Plattsburgh
7. Oswego
8. Endicott
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Nazareth
12. Norwich

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Wilkes @ 8) Endicott

12) Norwich @ 6) Plattsburgh

11) Nazareth @ 7) Oswego

9) St. Norbert @ 5) UW-River Falls

Quarterfinals

10) Wilkes/8) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury

12) Norwich/6) Plattsburgh @ 4) Amherst

11) Nazareth/7) Oswego @ 2) Augsburg

9) SNC/5) UWRF @ 3) Gustavus

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

 

Rationale

The 8E/4W Split

With River Falls coming into the 12-team field, and Bowdoin falling out, we are now at a split of 8 east teams and 4 west teams.  As we will see in a bit, this makes things a little bit tricky, especially with three of those west teams in the top 5.

The Byes

This week, deciding the byes is fairly easy.  We will be giving them to the top 4 seeds, which features two NESCAC schools and two MIAC schools: #1 Middlebury, #2 Augsburg, #3 Gustavus, and #4 Amherst.

Although these are the top 4 seeds from last week, albeit in different order, Gustavus was forced into the First Round last week with the 9E/3W split.  Now, the Gusties are the beneficiaries of their rival, UWRF entering the field again.

Travel Conditions

This week is extremely clean with all of the matchups, actually.  There are no huge travel conditions to note here.  All eight east teams are within the drivable distance of 500 miles of each other (thanks to Bowdoin exiting the field).  All four west teams are within drivable distance as well.

Who’s in the West pod?

Unfortunately, with the west qualifying four teams, there are too many to fit into one “pod,” which are three teams.  With Augsburg and Gustavus both earning byes,  the other two west teams will play in Round 1.  That means #9 St. Norbert will travel to #5 River Falls.

With #5 (UWRF) being the highest seed to not earn a bye, the winner of the RF-SNC game will face the lower ranked of the two MIAC schools.  With Augsburg being #2, and Gustavus being #3, that puts Gustavus in the west pod with River Falls and St. Norbert.  Augsburg, on the other hand, will have a different pod of its own, held in the west, but not featuring west teams.

Setting the Remaining First Round Matchups

With River Falls and Norbert already accounted for, let’s look at the remaining teams playing in the First Round.

• #6 Plattsburgh
• #7 Oswego
• #8 Endicott
• #10 Wilkes
• #11 Nazareth
• #12 Norwich

This is going to be quite easy, with no travel or conference restrictions here that will affect these matchups.  Thus, we will pair up the highest with lowest seeded teams, until we get to the middle.  So, we will have #12 Norwich making the short trek to #6 Plattsburgh.  #11 Naz taking the also-short trip to #7 Oswego.  Finally, that leaves us with #10 Wilkes making the longer trip to #8 Endicott.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

We already have #3 Gustavus getting the #5 UWRF/#9 SNC winner.  So now, we have to match these First Round games with the other three teams who have earned a bye.  #1 Middlebury will get the winner of the middle two seeds, #8 Endicott and #10 Wilkes.

Next up, the #7 Oswego and #11 Nazareth winner will feed into the next highest seed, #2 Augsburg.  Again, this is the only option we have, with an 8/4 split and 2 west teams in the top 4.  Thus, someone will be flying into Minneapolis for the second weekend of the tournament.

Finally, that leaves us with #4 Amherst getting the #6 Plattsburgh and #12 Norwich winner.  Just looking at seeds, Amherst gets a bit of a break here with the #6 seed (should they win), as Gustavus gets the short end, having to potentially face #5 (should they win) in the quarterfinals.

Frozen Four Placement

This is another fairly easy exercise, as #1 and #4 traditionally go together, so the Middlebury pod and Amherst pod go on the same side of the bracket.  On the other side, the Augsburg and Gustavus pod are placed on the other side.  This gives us a great chance at seeing our fifth consecutive East vs. West national title game.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight- the Nazareth/Oswego winner to Augsburg for a quarterfinal matchup

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 2 flights for both quadrants from left side of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Nazareth/Oswego advances from top right quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks for reading this week’s Bracketology column!  As we are now under a month from Selection Sunday, don’t assume this projection is set in stone, as we still have plenty of factors to sort out and games to be had.  Please leave any questions or comments down below.

If you haven’t done so, check out my conference-by-conference breakdowns from late last week where I project ahead, and analyze the remaining schedules in each league.  There’s a lot of insight that can help us project league champions in our bracket projections!

Part 1

Part 2