This past week was arguably the week of the year in DIIIWH.  We saw three ranked matchups on Tuesday, followed up with three massive conference series this past Friday/Saturday.  With drama across the country, things are very much heating up as we approach the final stretch of the regular season, and this week’s bracket projection reflects just that.

To put into reference all the moves and changes, here is last week’s post for reference!

Current Projections as of 2/4/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (7)
• MAC: Wilkes (15)
• MIAC: Augsburg (3)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (12)
• NEHC: Norwich (19)
• NESCAC: Middlebury (1)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (9)
• UCHC: Nazareth (18)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Amherst (2)
• Gustavus (4)
• Bowdoin (5)
• Plattsburgh (6)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• UW-River Falls (8)
• Cortland (10)
• Adrian (11)
• Colby (13)

Discussion

• With all the massive games this past weekend, it is a bit surprising there was only one new team entering into this projected field.
  • Tuesday night in western Wisconsin lived up to the hype, as Gustavus defeated the top-ranked and rival UWRF for the 2nd time in 3 meetings, jumping the Gusties into the field.  The Falcons fell all the way out after the results of the weekend’s games.  Personally, I strongly disagree that a team as strong as River Falls is currently out of the tournament picture, but I digress.
• Conference Races:
  • Amherst swept Bowdoin with a pair of 3-0 shutouts.  This knocked Bowdoin out of the NESCAC driver’s seat, and put Middlebury and Amherst into a tie for 1st place.
    • Middlebury owns the tiebreaker, so they take the lead for the auto-bid in this projection.
  • Plattsburgh and Cortland split this weekend up in Cardinal Country.  This, combined with a pair of Oswego wins (one in OT) gave the Lakers a larger lead over the Red Dragons and Cardinals in the SUNYAC.
  • In an absolutely massive series out west, Adrian and St. Norbert each took three points this weekend on the outskirts of Lake Michigan.  Adrian won Friday’s game in overtime by a 2-1 score, while the two teams skated to a tie late Saturday afternoon.  It then set things up for a monstrous shootout for the conference lead (We’ve seen this before with these two programs).  The Green Knights won the shootout 2-1 in 5 rounds to maintain a 1 point lead over the Bulldogs.
    • If neither team “drops points” the rest of the way, SNC will have the right to home ice in their conference tournament.  If Adrian can outscore St. Norbert by 1 point in the standings the rest of the way to earn a tie, the tiebreaker will go to Adrian, and potential home ice, as well.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • With the pair of big-time shutouts over the Polar Bears, Amherst moved up one spot to #2.
  • The Auggies flirted with a pair of losses against a frisky St. Olaf team, but managed to come away unscathed, and also moved up one spot to #3.
  • Gustavus takes a pretty sizable jump, from entering the week at #9, and the first team out, to all the way up to #4, thanks to the River Falls road win, and a pair of victories over a solid Bethel squad.
  • Bowdoin drops down three spots after the winless weekend.
• The cut line for this projection is #8 being the first spot out. This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #8 UW-River Falls.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • MIAC: (2)
  • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Amherst
3. Augsburg
4. Gustavus
5. Bowdoin
6. Plattsburgh
7. Endicott
8. Oswego
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Nazareth
12. Norwich

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Wilkes @ 8) Oswego

12) Norwich @ 6) Plattsburgh

11) Nazareth @ 7) Endicott

9) St. Norbert @ 4) Gustavus

Quarterfinals

10) Wilkes/8) Oswego @ 1) Middlebury

12) Norwich/6) Plattsburgh @ 5) Bowdoin

11) Nazareth/7) Endicott @ 2) Amherst

9) SNC/4) GAC @ 3) Augsburg

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 9E/3W Split

The more this season has played on, the more likely the 9/3 split looks.  Despite blue blood Gustavus finally working their way into the field, it comes at the expense of fellow western power Wisconsin-River Falls.

The Byes

This is the first write-up I have done on the women’s bracket in which there are not 3 NESCAC teams in the top 4 seeds.  Where this gets tricky, is that they are replaced by the MIAC’s second representative in the Top 4 in Gustavus.  With Gustavus and Augsburg being 2 of the top 4 seeds, and leaving only one west team behind.  I think this is an instance where the NCAA chooses money over “fairness.”

I’ve written in the past about how the NCAA is really set out to protect the top four seeds in this field.  However, there is a very clean bracket I have created that involves shoving the Gusties back into Round 1.  GAC has been victimized by the committee before, and I see it happening again in this very-specific scenario.

If they truly did give the top 4 byes, I see an additional two or even three flights being added.  While this could save them money on the back end with a Frozen Four out west, I don’t see this risk being taken.  Heck, last season, an extremely low risk option was avoided by the committee in what was a shocking decision.

So, I have the byes going to the top 3 seeds in Middlebury, Amherst, and Augsburg.  The #5 seed is the lucky team who takes GAC’s spot, and that is Bowdoin.  So 3 NESCAC’s do receive byes in this lookahead.

Travel Conditions

As I stated earlier, we will be pairing up the three west schools.  As it’s been the past few weeks now, the only combination of East schools not within driving distance (500 miles) is Bowdoin and Nazareth at 510 miles.  So, the committee should try to avoid them facing off in the first two rounds, if possible.

Setting the First Round Matchups

In the west pod, we will have #9 St. Norbert traveling southwest to #4 Gustavus, who was pushed into Round 1.  This would be the first meeting between the two programs since January of 2018.

For the remaining matchups, we will pair up the highest and lowest seeded east teams.  Actually, these are the exact three matchups I predicted last week (before having to shift them for QF geography purposes), which makes sense, as none of the bottom 7 seeds changed this week.

• #6 Plattsburgh would host the bottom seed in the field, #12 Norwich in what would be their third meeting this season.
• #7 Endicott hosts #11 Nazareth at Raymond J. Bourque Arena.
• #8 Oswego hosts #10 Wilkes at the Deborah F. Stanley Arena in Oswego.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

For the first time since our mid-season preview, we don’t have any funky quarterfinal switches, as the top seeds are set to play the “appropriate” seeds.

Again, the west teams have already been separated form the rest of the field.  So, the MIAC frontrunner in #3 Augsburg hosts the winner of #9 St. Norbert and #4 Gustavus.

The winner of the “middle two” seeds out east, in #8 Oswego and #10 Wilkes, heads to #1 overall seed Middlebury.

The next highest seed to the middle would be #7 Endicott.  Thus, #2 Amherst hosts the winner of #7 Endicott and #11 Nazareth.

Finally, that leaves us with the third NESCAC team to host a quarterfinal, #5 Bowdoin, who gets the winner of #6 Plattsburgh and #12 Norwich.

Frozen Four Placement

With #5 Bowdoin earning a bye, their quadrant would be placed along with #1 Middlebury.  Thus, #2 Amherst, #3 Augsburg, and #4 Gustavus all end up on the same side of the bracket.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 0 flights (just they way they like it!)

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 3 flights, one for each eastern team that advances from their respective quadrant.  The West pod winner is all set to drive.

This bracket results in exactly 3 total flights.  (Just to note: The alternative options that give #4 Gustavus a bye gives us a bracket that results in anywhere from 4-7 flights.)

Wrap-Up

Thanks for reading the fifth installment of this series!  As we enter the month of February, it’s crazy to think that conference tournaments will be played this month.  Although the hockey is dwindling down, the intensity will only be ramping up.

Keep an eye out for a big matchup in the UCHC.  Nazareth and Utica will be playing for home ice come playoff time.  Out west, it’ll be desperation time for a rivalry renewed. Both River Falls and Eau Claire need a signature win, and face off Saturday, with the Blugolds playing host.  Make sure to return for the sixth edition next week to see the latest!