As we close out the first month of 2025, let’s see what’s to come in a few short weeks as the national tournament picture is starting to clear up in many areas. Although there’s still a lot to be decided, there are teams starting to put themselves in near-lock territory for the national tournament.
In case you want a refresher, here is last week’s post for reference! Let’s dive in!
Current Projections as of 1/28/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Endicott (7)
- MAC: Wilkes (15)
- MIAC: Augsburg (4)
- NCHA: St. Norbert (12)
- NEHC: Norwich (20)
- NESCAC: Bowdoin (2)
- SUNYAC: Oswego (8)
- UCHC: Nazareth (18)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Middlebury (1)
- Amherst (3)
- UW-River Falls (5)
- Plattsburgh (6)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Gustavus (9)
- Cortland (10)
- Adrian (11)
- Colby (13)
Discussion
No teams entered or exited the field this week, but there are some major takeaways.
- Despite being outskated most of the doubleheader, Bowdoin came away with a massive series split at #1 Middlebury, holding onto their NESCAC lead in points percentage.
- NESCAC auto-bid or not, the Polar Bears are now in great shape to make the NCAA Tournament as we enter the home stretch. I’m a little surprised they are still as high as they are, even with the quality win, as their non-conference schedule was not the strongest. But for now, they stay at #2, and are in an amazing spot.
- On a related note, Amherst got upset this past weekend, splitting a series with an underwhelming Wesleyan team. Nevertheless, they jump up to the #3 seed somehow.
- Some major seed line shifts this past week:
- Augsburg earned a pair of impressive wins over a solid Hamline team, vaulting them from #8 in the NPI rankings all the way up to #4.
- Despite the Friday upset, Amherst did defeat Oswego last Tuesday, which helped them get from #4 to #3.
- Oswego fell quite a bit following the loss, dropping from #3 to #8.
- River Falls jumped Plattsburgh in the rankings at #5/#6. Both teams earned sweeps over lesser opponents.
- Wilkes jumped Nazareth toward the bottom end of our field. Wilkes is now the 10 seed (#15-NPI), while Nazareth is the 11 seed (#18-NPI).
- The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Gustavus.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- SUNYAC: (2)
Seeding
- Middlebury
- Bowdoin
- Amherst
- Augsburg
- UW-River Falls
- Plattsburgh
- Endicott
- Oswego
- St. Norbert
- Wilkes
- Nazareth
- Norwich
Projected Bracket
First Round
11) Nazareth @ 8) Oswego
9) St. Norbert @ 5) UW-River Falls
10) Wilkes @ 7) Endicott
12) Norwich @ 6) Plattsburgh
Quarterfinals
11) Nazareth/8) Oswego @ 1) Middlebury
9) SNC/5) UWRF @ 4) Augsburg
10) Wilkes/7) Endicott @ 2) Bowdoin
12) Norwich/6) Plattsburgh @ 3) Amherst
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which
Rationale
The 9E/3W Split
Just as it’s been the last few weeks, we have the exact same split and teams here. However, due to Augsburg’s big wins, the overall bracket construction is much, much cleaner, as we’ll discuss below.
The Byes
With Augsburg shooting up to the #4 seed, we can now safely predict byes for the rightful #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds. With Oswego dropping, the top 3 now consists of the NESCAC trio of Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Amherst as the “favorites” in this field. Augsburg earns the fourth bye in the western pod.
Travel Conditions
We will group up the three west schools. Just like last time, the only combination of East schools not within driving distance (500 miles) is Bowdoin and Nazareth at 510 miles. So, the committee should try to avoid them facing off in the first two rounds, if possible.
Setting the First Round Matchups
We’ll begin out west, as #9 St. Norbert has a new Round 1 opponent this edition, as they head to #5 UW-River Falls in an intrastate battle.
The best seed after River Falls is #6 Plattsburgh, who hosts the lowest seed in the tournament, #12 Norwich. This would make for the third matchup between the two North Country schools this season. (Plattsburgh won the previous two).
After that, #7 seed Endicott would get the next lowest seed remaining in #11 Nazareth. Naz would ideally travel to Beverly, MA (More on this later).
The last two schools are the middle two seeds left, with #8 Oswego hosting #10 Wilkes.
Another Quarterfinal Switch
Again, the west is incredibly easy to figure out here, as they are removed from the rest of the field. The Auggies would get the River Falls/Norbert winner at Ed Saugestad Rink. I will say, it would be funny to see a Round 1 River Falls home game, followed by a potential away game, and then potentially, returning to Hunt Arena for more “home” games at the Frozen Four.
Middlebury, as the top seed in the field, would get the highest eastern seed remaining, assuming the home teams win. Although not the #8 vs. #9 game like you see in basketball, they would get the #10 Wilkes vs. #8 Oswego winner in the quarterfinal.
#2 Bowdoin gets the next opponent, but we have another travel problem. Ideally, Bowdoin plays the winner of #7 Endicott and #11 Nazareth. But, as stated above in the Travel Conditions section, Bowdoin and Nazareth should be avoided in the first two rounds if possible. They’re too far away from one another. So, we will have to backtrack to our first round matchups. I switched Oswego and Endicott’s opponents, so that they both get home games, and still make this as far as possible. Now, we are left with the following matchups:
- #11 Nazareth @ #8 Oswego
- winner plays @ #1 Middlebury
- #10 Wilkes @ #7 Endicott
- winner plays @ #2 Bowdoin
It’s a little bit of an easier draw (theoretically) for Middlebury if Naz pulls the upset, but nothing too crazy. (I would argue that’s a lot tougher opponent anyways).
Finally, we tackle the last pod to not be settled, which would be #3 Amherst getting the winner of #12 Amherst and #6 Plattsburgh.
If all the home teams win in Round 1, we get #8 @ #1, #7 @ #2, #6 @ #3, and #5 @ #4. Perfect bracket integrity in that aspect.
Frozen Four Placement
Nice and easy, as the #1 and #4 seeds are put on the same side of the bracket, leaving #2 and #3 on the other, should they all get that far.
Dollars & “Sense”
First Two Rounds:
- 0 flights (just they way they like it!)
-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena
- 3 flights, one for each eastern team that advances from their respective quadrant. The West pod winner is all set to drive (or not travel at all if its UWRF).
This bracket results in exactly 3 total flights.
Wrap-Up
Thanks for reading this fourth edition of the series! This upcoming week will be an absolute doozy. Plenty of ranked matchups featuring Adrian vs. St. Norbert (x2), Amherst vs. Bowdoin (x2), Plattsburgh vs. Cortland (x2), Utica vs. Oswego, part 2 of Middlebury vs. Plattsburgh, and last but certainly not lease, the third edition of Gustavus vs. River Falls. Come back next week for a fresh look following all the chaos. Don’t be surprised to see some potential changes!
