It’s time for this week’s lookahead at what this year’s Division III Bracket projections are as we are about a month away from conference tournaments.  The season is already hitting the home stretch, as we are starting to see some separation in certain areas, and closing of the gaps in others.

In case you want a refresher, here is last week’s post for reference!  Let’s get on into it.

Current Projections as of 1/21/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (7)
• MAC: Wilkes (15)
• MIAC: Augsburg (8)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (11)
• NEHC: Norwich (23)
• NESCAC: Bowdoin (2)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (3)
• UCHC: Nazareth (14)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Middlebury (1)
• Amherst (4)
• Plattsburgh (5)
• UW-River Falls (6)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Gustavus (9)
• Cortland (10)
• Adrian (12)
• Colby (13)

Discussion

While there’s not much changing from last week, there are a few things to note:

• Conference Leader change:
  • Amherst and Middlebury faced off this past weekend as the showcase series in D-III hockey.  Amherst only took 1.5 out of 6 points, earning a tie in Game 1, and losing Game 2.
    • With this, Bowdoin, (not Middlebury) takes the lead in the NESCAC with 17 of a possible 18 points thus far this season.  The Polar Bears will have their chance at both Middlebury and Amherst in the next two weekends.
• Nothing else too crazy here other than a couple “seed line” shifts.
  • Oswego jumped Amherst.
  • River Falls jumped Endicott.
  • Nazareth jumped Wilkes.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Gustavus.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • SUNYAC: (2)

Seeding

1. Middlebury
2. Bowdoin
3. Oswego
4. Amherst
5. Plattsburgh
6. UW-River Falls
7. Endicott
8. Augsburg
9. St. Norbert
10. Nazareth
11. Wilkes
12. Norwich

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Nazareth @ 7) Endicott

9) St. Norbert @ 8) Augsburg

11) Wilkes @ 5) Plattsburgh

12) Norwich @ 4) Amherst

Quarterfinals

10) Nazareth/7) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury

9) SNC/8) Augsburg @ 6) UW-River Falls

11) Wilkes/5) Plattsburgh @ 2) Bowdoin

12) Norwich/4) Amherst @ 3) Oswego

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

 

Rationale

The 9E/3W Split

With no teams entering or exiting the bracket, we keep our split of 9 East teams and 3 West teams.  We have the same conundrum, as the 6 seed isn’t necessarily “deserving” of a bye, but will get one in this scenario due to my explanation later on.

The Byes

Again, as I mentioned last week, the NCAA is supposedly trying its best to give protection to those top 4 seeded teams.  In this scenario, it might be too big of an ask to protect all four though.  Forcing River Falls into the First Round means paying for at least two additional flights and potentially three (UWRF’s First Round & Potential QF game; SNC/Augsburg QF Game).  So this week, Amherst is the unfortunate team who falls back into the First Round.  This leaves the byes going to the 1, 2, and 3 seeds, Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Oswego.  UWRF picks up the fourth due to their geography, meaning exactly one West team would make it to the Frozen Four in River Falls.

Travel Conditions

With the west schools partnered up in their own pod, the only combination of East schools that are not within the drivable distance of 500 miles is Bowdoin and Nazareth at 510 miles.  Thus, the committee would try to avoid them facing off in the first two rounds, if possible.

Setting the First Round Matchups

We would start by pairing up the 2 west teams, as the #9 seed St. Norbert heads west to face #8 Augsburg in Minneapolis for the second time this season.

#4 Amherst, gets the lowest seed in the tournament: #12 Norwich, who heads to Orr Rink.

The next best seed, #5 Plattsburgh hosts #11 Wilkes, as the lowest remaining seed.

Finally, the two middle teams left face off in Beverly, Massachusetts, as #7 Endicott hosts #10 Nazareth.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

Again, the west teams have already been separated form the rest of the field.  So, the WIAC frontrunner in #5 River Falls gets the winner of the MIAC/NCHA frontrunners in #8 Augsburg and #9 St. Norbert.

The top overall seed, Middlebury, gets the winner of the two middle-seeded teams from Round 1, as is normal in a traditional bracket.  The #10 Nazareth vs. #7 Endicott winner gets to travel to Middlebury. (Side note: Middlebury and Endicott have already played twice this season, and the Gulls provided a tough test both games, despite Middlebury winning both.)

The #2 seed, Bowdoin would get the winner of #5 Plattsburgh and #11 Wilkes in Round 2.  No Nazareth here, means no shifting and it’s fairly simple (unlike last week’s edition).

Then, the #4 Amherst/#12 Norwich winner would travel to the shores of Lake Ontario to take on #3 Oswego (Fun fact: Oswego and Amherst face off tomorrow morning in Oswego).

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 0 flights (just they way they like it!)

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 3 flights, one for each eastern team that advances from their respective quadrant.  The West pod winner is all set to drive (or not travel at all if its UWRF).

This bracket results in exactly 3 total flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks for reading Edition #3 of 2025 Women’s Bracketology!  I’ll be back next week with the updated preview, where I’m sure we’ll have plenty to discuss.  Please reach out if you have any questions or comments!