Back at the mid-season break, we took a first glimpse at what this year’s women’s tournament field could look like. In just a few short weeks, we have a number of substantial changes. The new NPI ranking system has fluctuated quite a bit thus far. However, we will see if that continues to be the case as more games are played and data is calculated.
If you haven’t done so already, I highly recommend reading the aforementioned first bracketology post to get the premise of how this works and is determined. Now, let’s get into the 2nd edition of projecting the 2025 women’s bracket!
Current Projections as of 1/14/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Endicott (6)
- MAC: Wilkes (19)
- MIAC: Augsburg (9)
- NCHA: St. Norbert (12)
- NEHC: Norwich (24)
- NESCAC: Amherst (3)
- SUNYAC: Oswego (4)
- UCHC: Nazareth (20)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Middlebury (1)
- Bowdoin (2)
- Plattsburgh (5)
- UW-River Falls (7)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Colby (8)
- Cortland (10)
- Gustavus (11)
- Adrian (13)
Discussion
- In regards to the conference leaders..
- Norwich has overtaken UMass Boston with the highest points percentage in the NEHC.
- Wilkes’ sweep of Arcadia this weekend puts them in the driver’s seat for the MAC automatic bid, overtaking the Knights.
- Two blue bloods of the sport, Plattsburgh and River Falls, move into the projected field as at-large teams, bumping out Colby and Cortland.
- Plattsburgh and Oswego splitting the two game series this past weekend was huge for the SUNYAC potentially earning multiple bids.
- Remember, it is at-large or bust for UW-River Falls, as the WIAC doesn’t receive an automatic bid, so this is a substantial development.
- The cut line for this projection is #8 being the first spot out. This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #8 Colby.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NESCAC: (3)
- SUNYAC: (2)
Seeding
- Middlebury
- Bowdoin
- Amherst
- Oswego
- Plattsburgh
- Endicott
- UW-River Falls
- Augsburg
- St. Norbert
- Wilkes
- Nazareth
- Norwich
Projected Bracket
First Round
10) Wilkes @ 6) Endicott
9) St. Norbert @ 8) Augsburg
12) Norwich @ 5) Plattsburgh
11) Nazareth @ 4) Oswego
Quarterfinals
10) Wilkes/6) Endicott @ 1) Middlebury
9) SNC/8) Augsburg @ 7) UW-River Falls
12) Norwich/5) Plattsburgh @ 2) Bowdoin
11) Nazareth/4) Oswego @ 3) Amherst
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which
Rationale
The 9E/3W Split
Last go-around, we had just 2 west teams projected to make the field. While still a crazy split, it is not quite as drastic this time. Enter UW-River Falls into the bracket as an at-large. In this projection, they join the current leaders of the MIAC and NCHA in Augsburg and St. Norbert, respectively. With three teams in the west, there is going to be a bit of unevenness in this bracket. We have two potential options here: One of these teams is playing an east team in Round 1, or the 7 seed is getting a bye. I chose the latter, and my explanation is down below:
The Byes
Last projection, I wrote about how the NCAA has added additional verbiage to their 2024-25 manuals. They are now trying to protect the “top four ranked teams.” While I do believe the committee is going to try their best to give the top 4 ranked teams the bye, I don’t think this is set in stone by any means. With River Falls replacing an East team in the field. That gives us a trifecta of west teams, creating a nice Western pod. In an ideal bracket, the three western teams would play together, with the highest seed (River Falls) getting a bye.
The problem is, at the 7 seed, UWRF getting the bye is not the “fairest” outcome. But if we go with the “fair” outcome, the NCAA is paying for an additional 2, and maybe 3 flights BEFORE the Frozen Four. I lean towards the much cheaper option that lacks a little bracket integrity.
Oswego at the 4 seed, draws the short straw here, getting bumped into a first round game. That leaves the byes going to a trio of NESCAC schools in Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Amherst. UWRF picks up the fourth due to their geography, meaning exactly one West team would make it to the Frozen Four in River Falls.
Travel Conditions
As I’ve mentioned before, the west schools are extremely far away from the east schools. So, they make a pretty easy trio to match up. The only other mileage concern we have after that, is the fact that Bowdoin and Nazareth’s campuses are 510 miles away, barely over the 500 mile limit. Thus, in order to avoid a flight, those teams should be placed in different quadrants, if possible. Other than that, everyone else is fair game to match up against one another out east.
Setting the First Round Matchups
With the remaining 8 teams, we obviously start by pairing up the 2 west teams, as the #9 seed St. Norbert will travel to #8 Augsburg in Minneapolis, which coincidentally, they just did this past Saturday (Augsburg won 4-2).
After that, #4 seed Oswego would get the lowest seed in the tournament after unfortunately having to play in Round 1. The bottom team in the bracket is #12 seed Norwich, who would ideally travel to Oswego (More on this later).
After that, the next best seed is #5 Plattsburgh, who would get #11 Nazareth traveling to Cardinal Country.
Finally, the last two remaining teams to be matched up would be #10 Wilkes traveling up the coast to #6 Endicott in Beverly, MA.
A Quarterfinal Switch
As previously mentioned, the St. Norbert/Augsburg winner would travel to Hunt Arena for the quarterfinal matchup against #7 River Falls. The winner of that quarterfinal would….. stay at Hunt Arena, for the Frozen Four.
Middlebury, as the top seed in the field, would get the highest eastern seed remaining, assuming the home teams win. While it’s no #8 vs. #9 game like you see in March Madness, they would get the #10 Wilkes vs. #6 Endicott winner in the quarterfinal.
Here’s where it gets a bit tricky. #2 Bowdoin is next up, and would take the next highest home team’s seed, which is #5 Plattsburgh, who is scheduled to play #11 Nazareth. However, the Polar bears can’t play Nazareth without the NCAA offering up a flight, as stated in the Travel Conditions statement.
So, we’re going to have to backtrack a bit. The last remaining quarterfinal would be the Norwich/Oswego winner going to #3 Amherst. But, given it’s a relatively minor switch, we are going to swap Oswego and Plattsburgh’s first round opponents. That way, we get:
- #11 Nazareth @ #4 Oswego
- winner plays @ #3 Amherst
- #12 Norwich @ #5) Plattsburgh
- winner plays @ #2 Bowdoin
So while it is a small adjustment, Oswego is technically drawing yet another short straw. Plattsburgh gets a little bit of a break here. However, these “breaks” and “short straws” are based on seeding, not what I or anyone thinks about the actual teams themselves.
Frozen Four Placement
Finally, the western quadrant of seeds #7, #8, and #9 gets placed on the side of the bracket with #1 Middlebury to give the first seed more of an advantage than the #2 or #3 seed, hypothetically.
Dollars & “Sense”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- 0 flights (just they way they like it!)
Frozen Four:
-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena
- 3 flights, one for each eastern team that advances from their respective quadrant. The West pod winner is all set to drive (or not travel at all if its UWRF).
This bracket results in exactly 3 total flights.
Wrap-Up
Thanks for coming back to Edition #2 of 2025 Women’s Bracketology! I hope to be back after another thrilling week of games and crunching the numbers along the way. Please reach out if you have any questions or comments!
