We’ve arrived at Selection Sunday, and I wanted to provide one early lookahead at what we may see tonight.

Current Projections as of 3/9/25 (UPDATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Endicott (6)
• MAC: Wilkes (11)
• MIAC: Augsburg (1)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (10)
• NEHC: Elmira (17)
• NESCAC: Amherst (2)
• SUNYAC: Plattsburgh (5)
• UCHC: Nazareth (16)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Middlebury (3)
• UW-River Falls (4)
• Gustavus (7)
• Colby (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Oswego (9)
• Cortland (12)
• Adrian (13)
• Bowdoin (14)

Discussion

• With all of the championship and semifinal games yesterday, we have had a couple of changes from last week’s projection.
• Automatic qualifiers have officially earned their bids as 7 automatic bids were handed out yesterday, with the NESCAC’s coming this afternoon.
• New Conference Leaders:
  • SUNYAC:
    • Plattsburgh went on the road and controlled the game against Oswego, winning 2-0 and capturing the SUNYAC auto-bid, keeping their long NCAA Tournament streak alive for another year.
    • With Plattsburgh’s win, unfortunately, Oswego fell all the way out of the field.
    • The Lakers were at #6 coming into the day yesterday, and now despite a 22-3-2 record, the Lakers will be missing the NCAA Tournament in heartbreaking fashion, unless an NPI miracle happens with today’s NESCAC title game.
  • NEHC
    • The two top dogs met in the NEHC title game, and Elmira was able to secure a 1-0 road victory over Norwich.  We knew this was a one-bid league this season, and Elmira has won their second straight conference tournament, hoping to recreate the magic from last year’s Cinderella run.
    • Norwich, unfortunately, will miss the tournament for the third time in four seasons, a stretch that’s almost unprecedented for a program that strong historically.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • Amherst defeated Middlebury in the NESCAC title game, moving up 1 spot to the #2 seed overall.
    • With the loss, Middlebury fell from the #1 overall seed back to #3
  • Augsburg sneaked out yet another overtime win, this time against rival Gustavus, a strong enough win, combined with the Middlebury loss to jump to the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
  • Plattsburgh jumped from outside the field at #9, all the way up to the #5 seed, showing how close the NPI has been.
  • Endicott survived a massive scare from upset-minded Curry, as they win the CNE 1-0 in overtime, jumping up a couple of spots to #6.
  • Gustavus’ aforementioned heartbreaker overtime loss at the hands of Augsburg, caused a fall from #5 to #7 after the road defeat.
  • Colby failed to win their third straight game against Middlebury, falling a spot to the #8 seed overall, and the last team in the field.
• The cut line for this projection is #9 being the first spot out. This gives us 4 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #9 Oswego.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NESCAC: (3)
  • MIAC: (2)
    • Frustrating for most, the NESCAC appears to have gotten the edge on gaming the field yet again.  I can’t say I agree with Colby getting the final bid over Oswego.  I’ll write more about this in detail at a later date.
    • However, the calculator is the calculator, and if that’s how the NCAA wants to determine the champions of a challenging, grueling season that lasts nearly a half-year, then that is the route they’ve chosen.

Seeding

1. Augsburg
2. Amherst
3. Middlebury
4. UW-River Falls
5. Plattsburgh
6. Endicott
7. Gustavus
8. Colby
9. St. Norbert
10. Wilkes
11. Nazareth
12. Elmira

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) St. Norbert @ 7) Gustavus

12) Elmira @ 5) Plattsburgh

10) Wilkes @ 8) Colby

11) Nazareth @ 6) Endicott

Quarterfinals

9)SNC/7) GAC@ 1) Augsburg

12) Elmira/5) Plattsburgh @ 4) UW-River Falls

10) Wilkes/8) Colby @ 2) Amherst

11) Nazareth/6) Endicott @ 3) Middlebury

Geographical Breakdown

Rationale

The 8E/4W Split

4 west teams looked primed to make the field, with #1 Augsburg, #4 UWRF, #7 Gustavus and #9 St. Norbert.  Now, St. Norbert defeating Adrian was huge for this bracket, as Adrian would be playing east teams most likely, given their proximity to schools like Elmira and Nazareth.  Now, the committee will have to find a way to pair up four west teams.

The Byes

With this setup, this will allow us to give the top 4 seeds a First Round bye, as they should.  We have #1 Augsburg, #2 Amherst, #3 Middlebury and #4 River Falls earning the byes.

Who’s in the West Pod?

With two west teams earning byes, one of them will not be facing west teams in Round 1.  It appears apparent that #9 St. Norbert will be traveling to #7 Gustavus in Round 1.  In a traditional 12-team field, the #7 seed (should they win their first playoff game), would face off against #2.  Now, #2 is Amherst, and the NCAA isn’t going to allow that game to happen that early on in the field, given the financial commitment.

So, that west “play-in” game between the Gusties and Green Knights will feed into one of two places: #1 Augsburg, or #4 River Falls.  I feel that the NCAA is worried that the 7 or 9 seed would be “too easy” of a path for the #4 seed.  However, if you asked River Falls, I think those teams are plenty difficult enough.  But, the NCAA just goes off the seeds the calculator spits out.

So, #1 Augsburg will be the opponent of the GAC/SNC winner.  It’s a little more challenging opponent for the #1 seed, Augsburg.  Whereas #2 Amherst gets an easier draw according to seed, as they face the #8/#10 winner.  Augsburg, who is 3-1 against those two potential opponents (SNC/GAC) this season.  So, there is a decent path for us to get Gusties vs. Auggies: Round 4.

Setting the Remaining First Round Matchups

With Gustavus and SNC already accounted for, let’s look at the remaining teams playing in the First Round.

• #5 Plattsburgh
• #6 Endicott
• #8 Colby
• #10 Wilkes
• #11 Nazareth
• #12 Elmira

Ideally, we would just pair these teams off with the highest and lowest teams facing off.  So, that gives us #12 Elmira @ #5 Plattsburgh, #11 Nazareth @ #6 Endicott, and #10 Wilkes @ #8 Colby.  With Colby facing Wilkes in this projection, there are no travel issues to speak of (Colby is over 500 miles away from both Nazareth and Elmira).

It’s very close to a perfect 12-team bracket, as the only qualm is #8 Colby getting a little easier game seed-wise, and #7 Gustavus getting a little harder game seed-wise.  However, this is small potatoes when it comes to the NCAA and what they’ve pulled in the past.

Setting the Quarterfinal Matchups

As previously mentioned, we have #1 Augsburg hosting the winner of #7 GAC and #9 SNC.

Then, we will take the middle two teams matching up (#8 Colby and #10 Wilkes), and putting them up against the winner of the next highest seed: #2 Amherst.

#6, should they win, traditionally plays against #3 in Round 2 of a 12-team field, so that gives us #3 Middlebury hosting the winner of #6 Endicott and #11 Nazareth in a quarterfinal.

Finally, we have our last pod to pair up, as we have a flight to announce:  The #5 Plattsburgh vs. #12 Elmira winner will be flying to #4 River Falls in our last quarterfinal game.

This isn’t a perfect setup either, as I mentioned before.  Augsburg is getting a tougher draw here (according to seeds), and Amherst is getting a slight break.

Dollars & “Sense”

First Two Rounds:

• 1 flight- the Elmira/Plattsburgh winner to UW-River Falls for a quarterfinal matchup

Frozen Four:

-Host: UW-River Falls: Hunt Arena

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
• 1 additional flight if Elmira/Plattsburgh advances from bottom left quadrant

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

As mentioned before, these are just predictions, so I can’t guarantee anything.  However, based on sources, documents I’ve read, manuals, and past NCAA behavior and their financial ramifications, I can confidently predict this is where I think they will go with the bracket.  Time will tell if I am 100% right here, but bet that it will be, at the very least, close to this.  The selection show is tonight at 8:30 ET/7:30 CT.