In my last post, I tried to make sense of the newly-minted NPI rankings.  Or at least, as much sense as I can make of it.  Today, I’ll start what I hope to be a semiregular lookahead to what this year’s national tournament could look like.  If you missed our last social media post, you may have gotten a glance at our very first tournament preview with our first Projected Seeds graphic of the 2024-25 season.  In these graphics, I’ll list what the current selections would look like, in this very moment (important qualifier).  Here, I’ll not only talk about these with a little more clarity, but also do my best to project what a bracket would look like again… at this very moment.  Obviously, things are subject to change.  But as those who follow college basketball know, bracketology is as fun as it gets!  Does the “calculator” selection criteria make things a little less exciting?  Possibly, but that doesn’t mean we can’t guess what the committees will do in terms of placing teams!

A couple of disclaimers:

  • I did not create the NPI, nor do I agree with it 100% of the time.  I am just reporting the data.
  • Bracketing is very clearly a hot topic. Usually, it is not the “fairest” outcome, particularly at the Division III level.
    • I am often times a major critic of what the NCAA can get away with in D-III. After following these selections for years, I know what the committees are instructed to do by the NCAA, and at what times they can stray from that.  Thus, I am predicting what I think the committee would do in this hypothetical, not what I personally would do.
  • I have read the championship manuals, and I’ll explain the criteria and rationale behind the predictions when needed!
  • I’m not going to bat 1.000 on all of these, but I’ll do my best to explain what I think the committee would do.  I know these projections can be frustrating to you and your team, but they’re just projections, and I think the more information fanbases have, they can have more rooting interests in games across the country you may not know about.

With all that being said, let’s get into it!  (Just a heads up, this first edition may be a little longer than usual, as it might take some extra explaining for clarity’s sake.)

Format

So how I project this 14-team bracket is fairly simple. There are 10 automatic qualifier conference champions that get into the tournament. The remaining 4 spots are filled by the top 4 ranked at-large teams that do not win their conference.

It looks something like this:

  • CNE Champion
  • MAC Champion
  • MASCAC Champion
  • MIAC Champion
  • NCHA Champion
  • NEHC Champion
  • NESCAC Champion
  • SUNYAC Champion
  • UCHC Champion
  • WIAC Champion
  • At-Large #1
  • At-Large #2
  • At-Large #3
  • At-Large #4

This is a fairly simple exercise, as all 10 men leagues are pre-established and have enough teams to get into the postseason (It’s different on the women’s side).  I will lay out the selections as I just did.

Current Projections as of 12/27/24

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

  • CNE: Curry (7)
  • MAC: Wilkes (11)
  • MASCAC: Plymouth State (24)
  • MIAC: Saint Mary’s (31)
  • NCHA: Trine (5)
  • NEHC: Hobart (2)
  • NESCAC: Hamilton (14)
  • SUNYAC: Oswego (22)
  • UCHC: Geneseo (1)
  • WIAC: UW-Superior (30)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

  • St. Norbert (3)
  • Utica (4)
  • Aurora (6)
  • Trinity (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

  • Adrian (9)
  • UNE (10)
  • Cortland (12)
  • Endicott (13)

Discussion

  • Automatic qualifiers are determined by the current conference leader.  This does not necessarily mean points in their respective conference standings, but points percentage, as I don’t think it’s fair to punish teams who have played less games.  It seems like a cleaner way to do things.  I’ll give you an example: and it feeds into my second point:
    • In the SUNYAC, Buffalo State has 10 points.  Oswego has 9.  However, Buff State has played 6 games for a point percentage of 0.833.  Oswego has played 5 games for a point percentage of .900.  Therefore, Oswego is the pick here.
  • NOTE: in my graphic, I made an initial mistake, and failed to notice this, so I do apologize.  If you notice any mistakes or mishaps on my end, please feel free to reach out!
  • As you can see, the last teams into the field via at-large selections have to be ranked fairly high in the NPI with #9 being first on the chopping block, meaning six teams ranked below Adrian at 9, would qualify with automatic bids.
    • Speaking of Adrian, seeing three NCHA teams in the projected field without Adrian is a wild sight.
  • Multi-bid Leagues:
    • NCHA: (3)
    • UCHC: (2)
    • NESCAC: (2)

Seeding

  1. Geneseo
  2. Hobart
  3. St. Norbert
  4. Utica
  5. Trine
  6. Aurora
  7. Curry
  8. Trinity
  9. Wilkes
  10. Hamilton
  11. Oswego
  12. Plymouth State
  13. UW-Superior
  14. Saint Mary’s

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) Wilkes @ 8) Trinity

10) Hamilton @ 7) Curry

12) Plymouth State @ 4) Utica

11) Oswego @ 5) Trine

13) UW-Superior @ 6) Aurora

14) Saint Mary’s @ 3) St. Norbert

Quarterfinals

9) Wilkes/8) Trinity @ 1) Geneseo

10) Hamilton/7) Curry vs. 12) PSU/4) Utica

11) Oswego/5) Trine @ 2) Hobart

13) UWS/6) Aurora vs. 14) SMU/3) SNC

Geographical Breakdown

  • Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
  • Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which.

Rationale

Based off of the championship manual, many are aware that the NCAA is supposed to avoid paying for flights if at all possible.  If schools are more than 500 miles apart, then the traveling school is eligible for a flight.  So if at all possible, the committee very much tries to avoid flights, which can lead to some uneven brackets.  If you are curious on the mileage differences between the schools, check out this link, which the NCAA uses itself. The NCAA also tries its hardest to avoid teams from the same conference facing off in a First Round game.  Quarterfinal intraconference games are fine, but avoiding the First Round is a priority. Also, there is some additional verbiage from the NCAA this year, trying to protect the top four ranked teams as much as possible, and potentially giving hosting priority to available/qualified rinks. Check out Section 2.5 in the Championship manual for this.  For almost all projections, I will assume the higher seeded team has availability to host in their rink, barring specific circumstances, which I would then mention.

The Byes

With a 14-team layout, only 2 teams will get byes.  Based off this additional “top ranked team” protection, I strongly believe the committee is going to try their best to give the top 2 ranked teams the bye at the very least.  In this case, Geneseo & Hobart get the byes.

The 9E/5W Split

Over the next few weeks, you will hear me talk about what kind of “split” we will have in these projections.  This split is a 9/5 split, with 9 East teams, and 5 West teams.  With most west teams being so far removed from the rest of the schools, they will get their own quadrant of sorts.  The problem is, there’s one west team leftover.  In this bracket, I moved Trine out east, due to them being the furthest east by a good bit, while also acknowledging they are out of driving distance with the WIAC champions of UW-Superior.

What makes the split even more important this year, is that it is not determined where the Frozen Four will be held this year.  Usually, in these situations, it goes to the highest remaining seed in the Frozen Four who is eligible to host in their rink.  However, this year, the committee must do all that it can to put the Frozen Four in the west region this year.  There is a NCAA rule that the championship should not be held in the same region in four consecutive tournaments.  So, let’s take a look back:

  • 2024: @ Trinity – Hartford, CT (predetermined site before the season)
  • 2023: @ Endicott – Beverly, MA (highest seed available to host)
  • 2022: @ Lake Placid, NY (predetermined site before the season)
  • 2021: cancelled
  • 2020: cancelled (predetermined site before the season was Buffalo, NY)
  • 2019: @ UWSP – Stevens Point, WI (highest seed available to host)

Obviously, with the last three Frozen Fours being held out east, the committee and west schools should exhaust all efforts to get the final 2 rounds out west.  But I included a few years back, because in reality it has been ages since the men’s champion has been crowned out west.  Obviously, the pandemic had a lot to do with this, but six years in between Western Frozen Fours seems like an eternity.  Thus, there is an extra emphasis on how many west teams can qualify, where they are placed in the bracket, and how many can advance to the Frozen Four.

The West Pod

St. Norbert, as the #3 seed, would host the lowest team in the field in Saint Mary’s.  Superior would then travel to Aurora for their first round game.  Presumably, the highest remaining seed would then assume the hosting duties should they be able to in the quarterfinal round.  Remember, St. Norbert and Aurora (both NCHA members) are allowed to face off in the Quarterfinals.

Trine’s Drivable Distance

The only east teams in this field that are within drivable distance to Trine are the #1 and #2 seeds themselves.  If they wanted to make this happen, this would create a first round game featuring #5 Trine @ #2 Hobart, with the winner traveling to #1 Geneseo for a quarterfinal matchup.  The committee tries to keep “bracket integrity,” as much as possible, but have made some egregious decisions in the past to save some cash.  Making 3 of the top 5 teams face off before the Frozen Four seems like it would be a step too far, even for the NCAA.  So, I chose to “create a flight” in this scenario.

With seven east teams to choose from, and none within 500 miles, I chose #11 Oswego to make the trek to Angola, Indiana.  At 516 miles between the two campuses, this was by far the closest to the limit.  In past years, the NCAA has shown a little more flexibility to keep bracket integrity if the schools are barely over 500 miles (See Adrian vs. Hamilton on the women’s side).  There’s always a chance Oswego could forgo the flight and choose to drive anyways, which makes it logistically easier.  What’s an extra 16 miles, right?

The Rest of the Field

To close it out, I had six east teams, all within driving distance of one another, which is nice and clean.  In this situation, you just want to match up the highest seed with the lowest seed, and so on.  That’s how I got #12 Plymouth @ #4 Utica, #10 Hamilton @ #7 Curry, & #9 Wilkes @ #8 Trinity.  No conference matchups to worry about either, with Hamilton and Trinity separated. The 8/9 matchup feeds into the 1 seed, just like any normal bracket.  That leaves the remaining four teams in their own pod, with Utica having the inside track to host the quarterfinal with a win.

Dollars & “Sense”

We do need to talk the figures at the bottom line, and like it or not, that’s something the NCAA strongly considers.  In this hypothetical, here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up the cost for.

First Two Rounds:

  • First Round: 1 flight from Oswego to Trine (if they take it)

Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.

Frozen Four:

-If St. Norbert/Aurora hosts:

  • 2 flights from left side of bracket
  • 3 flights if Hobart/Oswego advances from top right of bracket

-If Trine hosts:

  • 1 flight from bottom left of bracket
  • 1 additional flight if Wilkes/Trinity upsets Geneseo; 0 additional flights if Geneseo wins
  • 1 additional flight if UW-Superior advances in the bottom right quadrant

-If UW-Superior hosts:

  • 3 flights from other 3 quadrants of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 1-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

If you made it this far, thanks for reading!  Remember, this is all very early, and the goal is to give everyone some context and perspective about the home stretch of the season.  With this all explained, the next edition won’t be nearly as long.  Again, I am open to hear any questions/comments you have down below!

Check out the women’s mid-season lookahead here:

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