We’re finally here.  Just a few short days away from selection day, and boy, has the hockey ever delivered in such an impactful part of the season.  This past weekend, we saw arguably the greatest day of Division III hockey.  So many wild games, crazy overtime periods, mini-games, and massive upsets that have turned this bracket on its head, and shaken the entire sport to its core.  Let’s dive in, and see where we stand with one final weekend.

Here is last week’s projection, which has some notable omissions this go-around.

Current Projections as of 3/4/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Curry (1)
• MAC: Wilkes (17)
• MASCAC: Fitchburg State (53)
• MIAC: Gustavus (33)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (5)
• NEHC: Hobart (2)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (16)
• UCHC: Utica (3)
• WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (40)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (4)
• Geneseo (6)
• UNE (7)
• Trine (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Adrian (10)
• UW-Stevens Point (11)
• Endicott (12)
• Trinity (13)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

• Automatic Bid
  • There are no new at-large bids, despite a couple of bubble teams (Trine, UNE) going down this past weekend.  But we have had a couple of massive losses by many favorites in conference tournaments, resulting in new projected winners for these leagues.
    • SUNYAC:
      • Plattsburgh came back from a 3-0 deficit, tied the game with 4 seconds remaining in regulation and won in overtime @ the 1-seed, Cortland.  Unfortunately for the Red Dragons, their season is now finished.
      • Oswego handled Buff State in the other semifinal, meaning as of now, they move into the projected field.  However, it’s win and in for both the Lakers and Cardinals at this point.
    • WIAC:
      • In a crazy weekend in the Badger State, #1 seed UW-Superior handled #4 seed River Falls on Friday night, but then proceeded to lose Game 2 on Saturday.  Thus, we received a mini-game, which the Falcons captured on the road.
      • The Jackets weren’t the only favorite to go down though, as UWSP fell victim to a massive upset.  #3 seed Eau Claire took Game 1 on Friday before the Pointers bounced back in a big way to tie the series Saturday night.  One 20-minute mini-game period and two overtime periods weren’t enough, before the Blugolds scored the game-winner on a penalty shot goal to advance to the title game.
        • Although the far-lower team in the NPI, UWEC moves into our projected field, for now.  River Falls has a win-and-in scenario also, however.  Superior and Stevens Point both will not be playing in the national tournament.
    • MASCAC:
      • In the craziest situation of all, #8 seed, and the bottom team in the MASCAC tournament, MCLA, has gotten everyone’s attention.  The Trailblazers have upset #1 seed and perennial conference favorite Plymouth State, and #2 seed Anna Maria in back-to-back games by identical 2-1 scores.  MCLA is shocking the world, and just needs one more win to cap off this improbable Cinderella run.
      • On the other side of the bracket, it’s not entirely chalk either, as #4 seed Fitchburg State defeated #5 seed Worcester State 4-1, before pulling an upset of their own over #3 seed Salem State in triple overtime.
        • For now, Fitchburg takes the auto-bid spot in the field, but both the Falcons and Trailblazers just need one more win to punch their bid as an automatic qualifier.
• New Conference Leaders:
  • • In a much-less crazy situation, Aurora’s upset didn’t do a whole lot to the projected field.  The Spartans are still safely in this bracket as one of the top seeds, but now they enter as an at-large selection.
    • St. Norbert earned a huge win over Trine in the semifinal, as the Green Knights now will host the NCHA championship game against rival Adrian.  For now, SNC has the auto-bid in our projection.  In reality, AC can change that Saturday night.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • With big underdogs hosting championship games, we have two teams slot in at the bottom of our bracket.  Fitchburg takes the #14 seed, the bottom seed in the field, while Eau Claire is just in front of them at #13.
    • Because of this, Gustavus, who has been by far, the lowest NPI in these projections, is all of a sudden the #12 seed at the moment.
  • Oswego moves into the field, right where Cortland dropped out, as the #10 seed.
  • After Norbert’s massive win over Trine, they have jumped Geneseo for the #5 seed, despite Genny also getting a win, albeit against a lesser opponent.  We’ll see how the math looks if Geneseo can get a Utica win on Saturday.
  • The last change is mainly due to Aurora’s upset loss at the hands of Adrian, as Aurora has slipped to the #4 seed, while Utica bumps back up to the #3.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Adrian.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NCHA: (3)
  • CNE: (2)
  • UCHC (2)
    • While we have to keep an eye out for bid thieves, what’s funny is that it may not impact these conferences perse, but only the schools within them.
      • Endicott and Adrian are two teams that beat bubble teams last week, in UNE and Trine, respectively. However, they still sit behind them in the rankings.  Wins for the Gulls and Bulldogs would cement their NCAA tourney status, and most likely send one or both of these teams out of the field for good.
        • If you’re a Nor’Easter fan or especially a Thunder fan, root hard for Curry and Norbert this weekend.

Seeding

1. Curry
2. Hobart
3. Utica
4. Aurora
5. St. Norbert
6. Geneseo
7. UNE
8. Trine
9. Hamilton
10. Oswego
11. Wilkes
12. Gustavus
13. UW-Eau Claire
14. Fitchburg State

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Oswego @ 9) Hamilton

12) Gustavus @ 5) St. Norbert

13) UW-Eau Claire @ 4) Aurora

8) Trine @ 6) Geneseo

11) Wilkes @ 7) UNE

14) Fitchburg State @ 3) Utica

Quarterfinals

10) Oswego/9) Hamilton @ 1) Curry

12) GAC/5) SNC vs. 13) UWEC/4) Aurora

8) Trine/6) Geneseo @ 2) Hobart

11) Wilkes/7) UNE vs. 14) Fitchburg/3) Utica

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 9E/5W Split

With no at-large bids changing hands, we stick with the 9E/5W split.  Plenty of changes at the auto-bid level, but obviously those don’t affect this split.  I believe the 8/6 split is dead, after the WIAC favorites lost, and UNE didn’t drop below Trine.  However, the 10/4 split is still possible, if Endicott can upset Curry, and Norbert beats Adrian.

The Byes

Same as usual, as #1 Curry and #2 Hobart rightfully receive byes in this projection.

Selecting the West Pod

You all know the drill by now, as with five west teams, they can’t all fit into one pod.  Trine is the furthest east by quite a bit, and have two East opponents they are allowed to drive to in this projected field.  Thus, Trine will get pushed out to an East pod.

With #8 Trine out of the picture, the remaining four west teams will make up one pod: #4 Aurora, #5 St. Norbert, #12 Gustavus, and #13 Eau Claire.  After matching these schools up via seed, we will have UWEC playing at Aurora, and GAC heading to SNC in Round 1.

Trine’s Placement

Out east, Trine is still only within driving distance of #2 Hobart and #6 Geneseo.  I avoided this matchup weeks ago, but now that Hobart is #2, I think it’s not egregious enough to keep these teams apart due to seeding.  It’s not ideal by any stretch, and Trine does lose a home game.  However, it would be too costly for the NCAA given what they have to change around it.  It’s not worth it for them, unfortunately.  So, Trine will drive to Geneseo in Round 1, with the winner facing off @ Hobart.

Setting the Rest of the First Round Matchups

As I stated in the previous two sections:

• In the west pod, we have #13 UW-Eau Claire heading south cross-state to face #4 Aurora, and #12 Gustavus driving straight east to visit #5 St. Norbert (Side note: these are perfectly-seeded Round 1 games in a 14-team bracket).
• In #2 Hobart’s pod, we have #8 Trine driving cross-region to #6 Geneseo.

With the rest of the field, we will just pair off the highest and lowest ranked teams to make the matchups as fair as possible.  Luckily, there are no travel issues with any of these six schools, either.

Remaining Teams: (#1 Curry earns a bye)

• #3 Utica
• #7 UNE
• #9 Hamilton
• #10 Oswego
• #11 Wilkes
• #14 Fitchburg State

Thus, we will get the unexpected matchup that is #14 Fitchburg @ #3 Utica, a rematch of the Plattsburgh Winter Classic between #11 Wilkes @ #7 UNE, and #10 Oswego taking the short trip to #9 Hamilton.  Once again, #8 Trine’s loss of a home game, is #9 Hamilton’s gain.

Quarterfinal Assignments

With the west pod being set, and #2 Hobart’s opponents selected, we turn to #1 Curry.

As the top overall seed, Curry will get the winner of the two middle seeds, #10 Oswego and #9 Hamilton.  Thus, the winner of the Lakers and Continentals will face the Colonels in Canton, MA.

The remaining two matchups will make up their own pod.  The #11 Wilkes/#7 UNE winner will face the winner of #14 FSU and #3 Utica with the highest eligible seed hosting the quarterfinal, with the Pioneers having the inside track to host the next round’s game.

Frozen Four Placement

With #1’s pod being matched up with #4’s pod in a traditional bracket, that means we will place the west pod alongside Curry’s quadrant of the bracket.

On the flip side, we will pair up Hobart’s pod, with Utica’s pod, as #2 and #3 seeds, respectively.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• 0 flights (just they way they like it!)

Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.

Frozen Four:

-If Aurora/St. Norbert hosts:

• 2 flights from top left and bottom right quadrants of bracket
• additional flight if Hobart/Geneseo advances from top right quadrant

-If Trine hosts:

• 2 flights from top left and bottom right quadrants of bracket
• additional flight if Gustavus advances from bottom left quadrant

-If Gustavus/UW-Eau Claire hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
  • This assumes Trine did not advance from top right quadrant if either Gustavus or Eau Claire is indeed hosting

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-3 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thank you so much for all of your support this season, and reading our bracketology columns.  We have a pressure-packed weekend, and although the hockey is dwindling down, there’s plenty to be decided yet.  I am planning on releasing my final projections after the NESCAC and NEHC title games on Sunday.  There, I will list my final prediction on what the field looks like and what the setup is prior to selections are released.  Talk to you again in a few short days.