Edition #7 of Men’s Bracketology isn’t too different from previous editions, but the urgency has ramped up to ten.  Multiple conference tournaments will start this upcoming weekend, meaning games are limited, but they become even more important to the NPI and how the field of 14 will be selected.

In case you would like to look back, here is last week’s projection for reference.

Current Projections as of 2/18/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Curry (2)
• MAC: Wilkes (19)
• MASCAC: Anna Maria (17)
• MIAC: Gustavus (32)
• NCHA: Aurora (3)
• NEHC: Hobart (1)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
• SUNYAC: Cortland (14)
• UCHC: Geneseo (5)
• WIAC: UW-Superior (13)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Utica (4)
• St. Norbert (6)
• UNE (7)
• Trine (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• UW-Stevens Point (10)
• Adrian (11)
• Trinity (12)
• Endicott (15)

Discussion

New Teams in Field:

• At-Large Bid:
  • We continue the flip-flop on the bubble between NCHA rivals Adrian and Trine.  After a crucial weekend series, the Thunder move into the field, replacing Adrian.
  • Trine won the series opener on Friday 3-1, while the teams played Saturday to a 2-2 tie (Trine won the shootout, but it doesn’t matter for the NPI at all).
• Automatic Bid:
  • Anna Maria makes its first appearance in our projections this year, as the Amcats have made up some games in hand, and taken the lead in points percentage, replacing Plymouth State.
    • In terms of who gets the 1 seed for the MASCAC tournament, Plymouth State has a one point lead with two games remaining.  AMC has three games left to play this week.
• Plenty of major conference series occurred besides Trine-Adrian this past week.  However, none of them changed anything within our projections.
  • Curry took care of their top 2 contenders in the CNE, Endicott and UNE, clinching the regular season title.
  • Geneseo and Utica were tied coming into the weekend, and the two top 5 teams naturally split the series.  Thus, Geneseo holds onto the lead in the UCHC via tiebreaker.
  • Stevens Point defeated Superior on Friday night to tie up first place in the WIAC with one game to go.
    • Saturday night was a thriller, as the Yellowjackets came from two goals down to send the game to overtime, where a shootout determined the #1 seed and regular season title.  In the extra session, Superior edged out the Pointers for the inside track to the big dance, earning home ice in the WIAC tournament in the process.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • Really not much change here, as Anna Maria replaces PSU as the #12 seed.  The only shift is that Trine replaces Adrian, and the last at-large spot has now surpassed Hamilton, as the Continentals have slipped to the #9 seed.
    • Hamilton lost to Tufts Friday before bouncing back Saturday to Connecticut College, ending a three-game winless streak.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 UW-Stevens Point.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NCHA: (3)
  • CNE: (2)
  • UCHC (2)

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Curry
3. Aurora
4. Utica
5. Geneseo
6. St. Norbert
7. UNE
8. Trine
9. Hamilton
10. UW-Superior
11. Cortland
12. Anna Maria
13. Wilkes
14. Gustavus

Projected Bracket

First Round

9) Hamilton @ 8) Trine

12) Anna Maria @ 5) Geneseo

13) Wilkes @ 4) Utica

11) Cortland @ 7) UNE

10) UW-Superior @ 6) St. Norbert

14) Gustavus @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

9) Hamilton/8) Trine @ 1) Hobart

12) AMC/5) Geneseo vs. 13) Wilkes/4) Utica

10) Cortland/7) UNE @ 2) Curry

10) UWS/6) SNC vs. 14) GAC/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 9E/5W Split

With Trine replacing Adrian, we’re still sitting at the 9/5 split.  It doesn’t make the bracket any cleaner, and we’ll see if an Adrian or Stevens Point making a run for the 8/6 split.  The split will most likely come down to if favorites can take care of business in conference tournaments.

The Byes

There are a couple problems when creating this bracket, but the #1 and #2 seeds rightfully get the byes in this projection, as #1 Hobart and #2 Curry get the first weekend of the tournament to rest.

Selecting the West Pod

With 5 west teams, one west team will be left out of the west pod.  Back in Edition #5, it was essentially the same scenario.  With Trine being in driving distance of a pair of East schools in this field, the Thunder will be forced into an eastern pod.

With #8 Trine being pushed into an east pod, the remaining four west teams will make up one pod: #3 Aurora, #6 St. Norbert, #10 UW-Superior, and #14 Gustavus.

Trine’s Placement

Just as I did last time, I think there’s one of two ways the committee could go with this setup of teams.  In terms of East teams, #8 Trine is in driving distance of #5 Geneseo and #1 Hobart.  A Trine @ Geneseo game with the winner heading to Hobart is the first option that saves the NCAA money.  For why I am passing over this option for a different one, I’ll leave you with the exact passage I wrote two weeks ago:

“However, with the seeding of these schools, I feel that the #1 seed getting the winner of #8 and #5 in the second round is a brutal reward for that top spot.  Not only that, but if we went down that path, the #2 seed gets a much easier draw according to seeds.  So, although this makes the most financial sense, I think the NCAA would be willing to pay a little extra to protect #1.  This isn’t a crazy dollar amount we’re talking about either.”

So, with that being put out there, we need to find a different opponent for the Thunder, preferably one seeded below them, as Trine as the #8 seed would probably deserve a home game in this scenario.  This is especially true given the protection the NCAA tries to give the #1 seed.

I worked through a few scenarios involving #9 Hamilton, #10 Cortland, and #13 Wilkes heading to Trine.  None of these schools are that far over the drivable distance limit of 500 miles, and when it is close, we’ve seen teams turn down those flights if it makes more sense logistically to drive.  In this case, I’m betting the NCAA sends Hamilton to Trine, creating a nice #8/#9 matchup, with the winner heading to #1.  If the Continentals want the flight, they can take it.

It’s not perfect from a dollar amount, but I think that first option is too daunting for #1 Hobart for the NCAA’s liking.  The NCAA has shown they care about bracket integrity in specific situations. So I believe if there’s a little bit of leeway like there is here, they will spend a little extra to protect #1.

Setting the Rest of the First Round Matchups

As I stated in the previous two sections:

• In the west pod, we have #10 UW-Superior driving to the greater Green Bay area to face #6 Norbert, and #14 Gustavus heading to greater Chicago to face #3 Aurora.
• In #1 Hobart’s pod, we have #9 Hamilton presumably flying to #8 Trine.

With the rest of the field, we will just pair off the highest and lowest ranked teams to make the matchups as fair as possible.

Remaining Teams: (#2 Curry earns a bye)

• #4 Utica
• #5 Geneseo
• #7 UNE
• #11 Cortland
• #12 Anna Maria
• #13 Wilkes

The only potential travel issue is UNE and Geneseo being too far away to drive, and that’s no problem here, luckily.  It works nice and clean, as we have #13 Wilkes @ #4 Utica in a former UCHC matchup.  Then, we have #12 Anna Maria facing off @ #5 Geneseo.  Finally, #11 Cortland heads northeast to Maine to face #7 UNE.

Quarterfinal Assignments

The west pod is finalized, and Hobart’s two potential opponents are set.

In terms of Curry’s opponent, we will take the middle two teams matching up.  So, we have the #11 Cortland/#7 UNE winner heading to Canton, Mass to face #2 Curry.  This could potentially set up Curry/UNE Round 4 or 5!

The remaining two matchups will make up their pod of sorts, as all teams are within drivable distance, so there’s no problems there.  The #12 AMC/#5 Geneseo winner would face the #13 Wilkes/#4 Utica winner in a NCAA quarterfinal with the highest eligible seed hosting.  Utica vs. Geneseo Round 6 could be on the table as well here!

Frozen Four Placement

In a traditional bracket, #1 would be on the same side of the bracket as #4, so the Utica/Geneseo pod winner faces off against the Hobart pod winner in a national semifinal.

The other two pods face off in the other semi, with the Curry pod winner facing the winner of the west pod, led by #3 Aurora.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• First Round: 1 flight from Hamilton to Trine (if they take it)
• Second Round: None

Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.

Frozen Four:

-If Aurora/St. Norbert hosts:

• 2 flights from top right and bottom left quadrants of bracket
• additional flight if Hobart/Hamilton advances from top left quadrant

-If Trine hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
  • This assumes neither Aurora/SNC advanced if Trine is indeed hosting, so the other west rep is either UWS/GAC
• additional flight if Utica/Anna Maria/Wilkes advances from bottom left quadrant

-If UW-Superior/Gustavus hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 3-4 flights.

Wrap-Up

Thanks for reading our seventh edition of Men’s Bracketology.  We just have three full weekends of hockey left before selections are made, so I will do my best to update more frequently, particularly when conference tournaments are in full swing and we have a better idea of how much the NPI can fluctuate with a limited number of games left.  Please leave any questions or comments about your school down below!  For now, I’ll leave you with a sneak-preview of the NCHA and WIAC tournaments, and how they affect the grand scheme of the NCAA tournament picture.

NCHA:

We start with arguably the most dominant conference in men’s D-III hockey.  As of right now, we are looking at three bids for the NCHA.  With how the NPI has wildly fluctuated, I wouldn’t call anyone in the league a lock just yet, as crazy as that sounds.  However, if the top seeds can get through this weekend unscathed, I’d rethink my position on that.

Obviously, the four teams battling for a potential at-large (should they not get the auto-bid) are Aurora, St. Norbert, Trine, and Adrian.  With the 2-game series format, I would advise all of these four to take care of business this weekend.  I am not too worried about Aurora’s matchup, but the other three have to bring their A-games, or they can get caught, and maybe even eliminated with the strength of these programs in the NCHA.

If Aurora sweeps this weekend and gets to the semifinals, I think they’re most likely in.  SNC is probably in that category too, barring complete chaos around the other conference tournaments. Trine and Adrian are right on the bubble, so they need to win as many games as possible, and pray for potential help with the right bubble results.  The good thing for these teams, is that they’ll all be getting quality chances to stack impressive wins and improve their NPI rating.  All the other teams will need an auto-bid to clinch an NCAA tournament spot.

If you’re one of the top four in the NCHA, root for the other favorites to sweep Round 1, to create the best possible opponents for your team.  Then, root against other bubble teams including the two WIAC teams I will go in depth with down below: Superior and Stevens Point.  Trinity, UNE, and Endicott losing early on in conference tournaments wouldn’t hurt at all either.

WIAC:

In the WIAC five of the six teams are extremely competitive, and they use the two game series as well, meaning teams will earn multiple chances to stack wins for their NPI rating.  It’s a two-horse race at the top, as Superior and Stevens Point both have chances at an at-large bid.  I would not say it’s the likely outcome by any means, as it’s likely a one-bid league.  However, there definitely is a non-zero chance both the Jackets and Pointers dance if they can each get to the title game.

Point is ahead in the NPI right now (#10), and will most likely have a series against UW-Eau Claire.  First off, they need to sweep the Blugolds most likely.  Should they lose a road tilt at Superior for the WIAC title, they’ll need help around them, meaning other bubble teams have to lose early in conference tourneys.

Superior is sitting at #13 in the NPI, so if they want an at-large, they’ll have to sweep one of River Falls or Stout, both quality teams.  With the potential home game against Point in the championship, they’ll also need even more help from bubble teams losing.  Everyone else is in auto-bid or bust territory.

If you’re a fan of either the Pointers or Yellowjackets, you’re cheering for both these teams, until the title game at least.  Then, you need to root against bubble teams, and for conference favorites.  Most notably, root against Trine, Adrian, UNE, and Trinity.