Welcome back to Bracketology!  With just weeks remaining, we are getting a much more clear image as to what the tournament field could actually look like.  We can now begin to speculate how the numbers will shake out, with not much data left to be calculated.  However, given the wild fluctuations we’ve seen in the NPI, nothing is off the table just yet.

In case you need a refresher, here is last week’s projection for reference.

Current Projections as of 2/11/25

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Curry (2)
• MAC: Wilkes (21)
• MASCAC: Plymouth State (16)
• MIAC: Gustavus (22)
• NCHA: Aurora (3)
• NEHC: Hobart (1)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (8)
• SUNYAC: Cortland (14)
• UCHC: Geneseo (5)
• WIAC: UW-Superior (12)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Utica (4)
• St. Norbert (6)
• UNE (7)
• Adrian (9)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Trine (10)
• Trinity (11)
• UW-Stevens Point (13)
• Endicott (15)

Discussion

• New Team in Field:
  • Where we’ve seen the most drama the last few weeks is where we’ll start this discussion: The NCHA.
    • Trine played a pair of thrillers with Marian this past weekend.  Both games were decided in the last 10 seconds of the game, and Trine was on the winning end of one, and the losing end of the other.  Because of this, Trine exits the projected field, as they drop below rival Adrian in the NPI.  The Bulldogs swept Concordia-Wisconsin in convincing fashion.
    • Adrian is now leading Trine in the NPI by 0.001, and the two programs now face off in a home-and-home regular season finale.  As the kids say, this should be “absolute cinema.”
• New Automatic Bid Leader:
  • While we saw quite a few upsets this past week, we also saw some “quasi-upsets” where big favorites tied their opponent.  Not as bad as a loss obviously, but it hurts their numbers a bit.  Utica tied Chatham Friday night, and that with a Geneseo sweep gave the Knights a tie in the standings with the Pioneers.  Geneseo has the tiebreaker for now.
    • Guess what?  These two play their second series this weekend as well, with each team hosting one game.  More cinema on deck.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • Curry swept Wentworth this past weekend. With the Utica tie, and Aurora tying MSOE, CC now has climbed all the way to the #2 seed, from #4.  Aurora has stayed at #3 for now, while Utica slipped to #4.
  • Hamilton had their worst weekend of the season, going 0-1-1.  They didn’t play terribly, but they have a massive target on their back in the NESCAC.  They fell from the #6 seed back to #8.
  • St. Norbert eked out two close wins against Lake Forest to bump up one spot to the #6 seed.
  • UNE earned a pair of wins over Johnson & Wales to move up from the #9 seed to #7.
  • Adrian squeaked into the field at the #9 seed.
  • At the back end of the field, Cortland suffered an upset loss at the hands of Buff State, while UW-Superior swept a pretty good UW-Stout team.  These two flipped their seeds because of this, with UWS now at #10, and Cortland back to #11.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Trine.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NCHA: (3)
  • CNE: (2)
  • UCHC (2)

Seeding

1. Hobart
2. Curry
3. Aurora
4. Utica
5. Geneseo
6. St. Norbert
7. UNE
8. Hamilton
9. Adrian
10. UW-Superior
11. Cortland
12. Plymouth State
13. Wilkes
14. Gustavus

Projected Bracket

First Round

13) Wilkes @ 9) Adrian

11) Cortland @ 5) Geneseo

12) Plymouth State @ 4) Utica

8) Hamilton @ 7) UNE

10) UW-Superior @ 6) St. Norbert

14) Gustavus @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

13) Wilkes/9) Adrian @ 1) Hobart

11) Cortland/5) Geneseo vs. 12) Plymouth St./4) Utica

8) Hamilton/7) UNE @ 2) Curry

10) UWS/6) SNC vs. 14) GAC/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

• Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
• Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which

Rationale

The 9E/5W Split

Despite all the NCHA carnage, we are still here at the 9/5 split.  With only one of Adrian/Trine in, this bracket is much easier to build than when both were projected in the field.  I’ll break this down later.  I doubt 4 NCHA teams can make it in, but we shall see.  The WIAC has a chance to get multiple bids, but it seems like a longshot at best.

The Byes

I tried some alternative brackets, but the best case scenario is giving the byes to the top two seeds in this projection, as it should be.  Thus, #1 Hobart and newly-minted #2 Curry get the byes in this hypothetical.

Selecting the West Pod

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, with 5 west teams, someone can’t be included in the 4-team “west pod.”  With Adrian being within drivable distance of three East schools in this field (#1 Hobart, #5 Geneseo, #13 Wilkes), it’s a no-brainer to force them east.

Thus, the west pod will consist of #3 Aurora, #6 St. Norbert, #10 UW-Superior, and #14 Gustavus.

Adrian’s Placement

Above, I mentioned the three east schools Adrian is within driving distance of.  With Hobart getting a bye, Adrian will go into that pod with one of the other two schools.  So we are either going to get one of these two options.

OPTION 1:

#9 Adrian @ #5 Geneseo

OPTION 2:

#13 Wilkes @ #9 Adrian

Neither of these scenarios are perfect.  If Option 2 is selected, #9 Adrian gets a First Round home game at the expense of a top 8 seed who theoretically “deserves it more.”  However, Option 1 seems a bit too tricky for the #1 overall seed in Hobart.  So, I think Option 2 is the overall more likely option.  So it will be Wilkes @ Adrian in Round 1, with the winner heading to Hobart for the quarterfinal.

Travel Conditions

With the remainder of the west schools together, it’s important to note these are all within drivable distance.  With the Adrian travel situation settled until the Frozen Four, let’s take a look at any other potential travel issues we need to recognize.

The only other potential problem, is that the NCAA would try to avoid a Geneseo/UNE matchup in the first two rounds.  They sit at… 502 miles apart.  This isn’t the largest hurdle to clear, but they probably try to avoid it just in case.

Setting the Rest of the First Round Matchups

We know the western pod and their teams, so we’ll set the matchups easily according to seed.  We will have #14 Gustavus heading south to #3 Aurora, with #10 UWS heading cross-state to #6 St. Norbert.

In the Hobart pod, we already know #13 Wilkes is heading to #9 Adrian.  So let’s look at the remaining teams who need a First Round opponent.

• #4 Utica
• #5 Geneseo
• #7 UNE
• #8 Hamilton
• #11 Cortland
• #12 Plymouth State

When we match these teams up according to seed, it works out pretty nicely.  We have #12 PSU heading to #4 Utica.  #11 Cortland faces old conference foe #5 Geneseo at the Ira S. Wilson Ice Arena.  Finally, #8 Hamilton (who we previously mentioned loses out on a potential home game) has to head northeast to face the Nor’Easters of #7 UNE.

Quarterfinal Assignments

Again, the west pod is all set, and we know Hobart faces the winner of Adrian and Wilkes.

We will take the middle matchup of the three, #8 Hamilton @ #7 UNE, and assign the winner of that game to travel to #2 Curry in the quarterfinals.  In this case, we could be looking at Round 4 or even Round 5 of UNE/Curry this season.  As I reference above, no travel issues here, as UNE is separated from Geneseo.

The following two Round 1 games are then paired together to create their own pod.  The winners of PSU/Utica and Cortland/Geneseo will face off in the quarterfinal.  The highest seed would host, provided they are eligible, which gives Utica the inside track.  Could we see Round 5 or Round 6 of Geneseo/Utica?

Frozen Four Placement

Just like a traditional bracket, the #1 seed’s pod would be ideally paired with the #4 seed’s pod in the Frozen Four.  So, the Utica/Geneseo pod falls on the same side of the bracket as Hobart.

On the other side, we have Curry’s pod paired up with the West pod, as Curry is #2, and Aurora is #3.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• 0 flights (just they way they like it!)

Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.

Frozen Four:

-If Aurora/St. Norbert hosts:

• 2 flights from top right and bottom left quadrants of bracket
• additional flight if Hobart/Wilkes advances from top left quadrant

-If Adrian hosts:

• 2 flights from right side of bracket
  • This assumes neither Aurora/SNC advanced if Adrian is indeed hosting, so the other west rep is either UWS/GAC
• additional flight if Utica/Cortland/Plymouth St. advances from bottom left quadrant

-If UW-Superior/Gustavus hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-3 flights (Much less than what we’ve been projecting as of late).

Wrap-Up

Thanks so much for checking back in on men’s bracketology.  As I hinted at before, we have some pivotal games this upcoming weekend, featuring Trine vs. Adrian, Utica vs. Geneseo, Superior vs. Stevens Point, and Curry having a game against each UNE and Endicott.  Come back next week for what will be an even closer look at what the field could look like come Selection Sunday!  Leave any questions/comments down below.

If you haven’t done so already, check out my men’s conference-by-conference breakdowns on what the end of the season could look like for each league.

Part 1

Part 2

 

 

 

Wrap-Up