Happy Tuesday! As we are about one month away from conference tournaments beginning, it’s time to look ahead at what this year’s Division III Bracket projections are. The home stretch is here, and we have lots of shuffling among the contenders as teams are separating a bit at the top.
In case you want a refresher, here is last week’s post for reference! Let’s get started with our third men’s preview.
Current Projections as of 1/21/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Curry (4)
- MAC: Wilkes (26)
- MASCAC: Plymouth State (18)
- MIAC: Gustavus (28)
- NCHA: Trine (7)
- NEHC: Hobart (1)
- NESCAC: Hamilton (8)
- SUNYAC: Oswego (14)
- UCHC: Geneseo (3)
- WIAC: UW-Superior (17)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Utica (2)
- Aurora (5)
- Adrian (6)
- Trinity (9)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- St. Norbert (10)
- UNE (11)
- UW-Stevens Point (12)
- Endicott (13)
Discussion
A couple changes from last week:
- New Team in Field:
- After falling out of the bracket last week, Trinity jumps back into the field as the last team in, vaulting to #9 in the NPI
- Trinity’s victory is St. Norbert’s defeat, as the Green Knights fall from the last team in, to the first team out, following a weekend split vs. Concordia-Wisconsin.
- There were a few “seed line” shifts.
- Aurora jumped Adrian.
- Hamilton moved up one spot to the #8 seed.
- Wilkes jumped Gustavus.
- The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out. This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 St. Norbert.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NCHA: (3)
- NESCAC: (2)
- UCHC (2)
Seeding
- Hobart
- Utica
- Geneseo
- Curry
- Aurora
- Adrian
- Trine
- Hamilton
- Trinity
- Oswego
- UW-Superior
- Plymouth State
- Wilkes
- Gustavus
Projected Bracket
First Round
12) Plymouth State @ 8) Hamilton
11) UW-Superior @ 7) Trine
14) Gustavus @ 5) Aurora
10) Oswego @ 6) Adrian
9) Trinity @ 4) Curry
13) Wilkes @ 2) Utica
Quarterfinals
12) Plymouth St./8) Hamilton @ 1) Hobart
11) UWS/7) Trine vs. 14) GAC/5) Aurora
10) Oswego/6) Adrian @ 3) Geneseo
9) Trinity/4) Curry vs. 13) Wilkes/2) Utica
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which
Rationale
The 9E/5W Split
With Trinity replacing St. Norbert in this field, we find our way back to a split of 9 East teams and 5 West teams. With quadrants of either 3 or 4 teams, this means that at least of the West teams will be forced to play against the East. Adrian and Trine are much further east than the other west schools, so we will have to make a choice between the two.
The Byes
While I believe the NCAA will try to protect the top 2 seeds with a bye in most instances, I can’t promise that will be the case. In a perfect world, that gives #1 Hobart and #2 Utica the byes. However, after looking at multiple scenarios, I think the most likely, and feasible outcome is giving the byes to #1 Hobart, and #3 Geneseo.
This is going to be a hot issue, I understand. But, usually the NCAA tries to protect #1 at all costs, and had I given the bye to #2 Utica, it created too tough of a path for the #1 overall seed to reach the Frozen Four. In fact, it was harder than #2 Utica’s path to the FF. I think they would rather protect #1 than #2. If anyone would like to see the alternate bracket that I don’t think the NCAA would go with, leave a comment below!
Selecting the West Pod
In the west pod, I decided to put #7 Trine with #5 Aurora, #11 UW-Superior, and #14 Gustavus. Trine is further west than Adrian, and Adrian has a few more options when it comes to playing East schools (Trine is only within driving distance of Hobart and Geneseo; Adrian is within driving distance of Hobart, Geneseo, Oswego, and Wilkes).
This combination of west teams is not perfect, as Superior would have to fly to play Trine, unfortunately, as they are 632 miles apart. A potential Gustavus-Trine Quarterfinal matchup would result in an additional flight as well. But, this is the best the NCAA can do in this situation. So that gives us Superior @ Trine, and Gustavus @ Aurora.
Adrian’s Placement
With Geneseo and Hobart having byes, Adrian (due to drivable distance) should be playing a First Round game against either #13 Wilkes or #10 Oswego, with the winner going to either #3 Geneseo or #1 Hobart.
Setting the First Round Matchups
As I said above, in the west pod, we have #11 UW-Superior flying to #7 Trine, and #14 Gustavus heading to #5 Aurora.
In regards to the rest of the field, we will just start pairing off the highest and lowest ranked teams to make it as equitable as we can.
Remaining Teams:
- #2 Utica
- #4 Curry
- #6 Adrian (must play Oswego/Wilkes)
- #8 Hamilton
- #9 Trinity
- #10 Oswego
- #12 Plymouth State
- #13 Wilkes
In this situation, #13 Wilkes will go to #2 Utica, and #12 Plymouth State will head to #4 Curry. #10 Oswego heads west to #6 Adrian, and #9 Trinity travels to #8 Hamilton. The Oswego vs. Adrian matchup even happened naturally! Perfect situation right? In the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!” Take a closer look at the middle matchup in the field, and you’ll notice a pair of NESCAC teams facing off in Round 1, which should be avoided, if at all possible.
NESCAC Switch
So, to preserve Hamilton’s deserved Round 1 home game, we will swap out Trinity for someone else. I don’t want to touch the Adrian/Oswego matchup, as forcing the Bulldogs to face Wilkes makes the bracket integrity even worse. So, #4 Curry and #8 Hamilton will be swapping First Round opponents. Now, #8 Hamilton hosts #12 Plymouth State, while #4 Curry hosts #9 Trinity.
Curry gets a bit of a bad wrap here, facing last year’s runner-up Trinity as the 9 seed, and then having to potentially travel to #2 Utica just to get to the Frozen Four, but unfortunately, it had to be one of the teams, and they were the unlucky ones.
Quarterfinal Assignments
With no remaining potential matchups outside of drivable distance, we can try to assign these teams as fairly as possible.
With Hobart getting preferential treatment as the 1 seed, they would face the #8 Hamilton/#12 PSU winner. #3 Geneseo gets the winner of #6 Adrian/#10 Oswego.
Frozen Four Placement
The west pod, with seeds #5, #7, #11, and #14 is placed on Hobart’s side. The #2, #4, #9, #13 quadrant goes on Geneseo’s side. That #1 seed is very, very important, folks. #2, #3, and #4 all being on the right side of the bracket is an extremely brutal setup.
Dollars & “Sense”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- First Round: 1 flight from UW-Superior to Trine
- Second Round: 1 potential flight from Gustavus to Trine
Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.
Frozen Four:
-If Aurora hosts:
- 2 flights from top left, and bottom right quadrants of bracket
- additional flight if Geneseo/Oswego advances from top right quadrant
-If Adrian hosts:
- additional flight if Plymouth St./Hamilton advances from top left quadrant of bracket
- additional flight if Gustavus/UWS advances from bottom left quadrant
- additional flight if Utica/Curry/Trinity advances from bottom right quadrant
-If Trine hosts:
- 1 flight from bottom right quadrant of bracket
- additional flight if Plymouth St./Hamilton advances from top left quadrant
- additional flight if Oswego advances from bottom right quadrant
If UW-Superior hosts:
- 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 1-5 flights (lots of contingency plans).
(Yes, 1 flight means a Hobart, Trine, Wilkes & Adrian Frozen Four hosted by the Bulldogs, in which Trine beats Aurora in the quarterfinals).
(Yes, 5 flights means “whoever from the bottom right quadrant”, Hamilton, Oswego, & Trine Frozen Four hosted by the Thunder, in which Trine beats Gustavus in the quarterfinals).
Wrap-Up
Thanks for reading Edition #3 of 2025 Men’s Bracketology! I’ll be back next week with the updated look as we approach the end of January. Leave any questions or comments down below!
