Back at the Christmas break, we took a first look at this year’s men’s tournament field at the current moment and what it might look like. We’ve already seen changes in the last couple of weeks. The new NPI ranking system has fluctuated quite a bit thus far. However, we will see if that continues to be the case as more games are played and data is calculated.
If you haven’t done so already, I highly recommend reading the aforementioned first bracketology post to get the premise of how this works and is determined. Now, let’s get into the 2nd edition of projecting the 2025 men’s bracket!
Current Projections as of 1/14/25
Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)
- CNE: Curry (4)
- MAC: Wilkes (27)
- MASCAC: Plymouth State (23)
- MIAC: Gustavus (25)
- NCHA: Trine (7)
- NEHC: Hobart (1)
- NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
- SUNYAC: Oswego (15)
- UCHC: Geneseo (3)
- WIAC: UW-Superior (17)
At-Large (NPI Rank)
- Utica (2)
- Adrian (5)
- Aurora (6)
- St. Norbert (8)
First Four Out (NPI Rank)
- Endicott (10)
- UNE (11)
- Trinity (12)
- Cortland (13)
Discussion
While the seeding of this field has changed quite a bit, there have only been a couple of swaps in terms of teams entering the bracket since our last look.
- Gustavus, under first-year coach Tyler Walsh, swept Saint Mary’s this past weekend with a pair of 5-1 wins, taking over the current lead in the MIAC, replacing the Cardinals..
- Trinity falls out of the bracket, from the last team in, to the third team out, replaced by a familiar face: the Bulldogs of Adrian, led by another first-year coach, Adam Phillips after a couple big wins, including one over NCHA leader Trine (in a non-conference game).
- Adrian jumped all the way to #5, proving that the NPI is still far from set in stone.
- Other teams had wild jumps and falls in the NPI. None more so than Wilkes hitting a skid, but falling all the way from #11 to #27. The MAC is looking like it will be a one-bid league at this point.
- The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out. This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Endicott.
- Multi-bid Leagues:
- NCHA: (4)
- UCHC (2)
Seeding
- Hobart
- Utica
- Geneseo
- Curry
- Adrian
- Aurora
- Trine
- St. Norbert
- Hamilton
- Oswego
- UW-Superior
- Plymouth State
- Gustavus
- Wilkes
Projected Bracket
First Round
9) Hamilton @ 7) Trine
11) UW-Superior @ 8) St. Norbert
13) Gustavus @ 6) Aurora
12) Plymouth State @ 4) Curry
10) Oswego @ 5) Adrian
14) Wilkes @ 3) Geneseo
Quarterfinals
9) Hamilton/7) Trine @ 1) Hobart
11) UWS/8) SNC vs. 13) GAC/6) Aurora
12) Plymouth St./4) Curry @ 2) Utica
10) Oswego/5) Adrian vs. 14) Wilkes/3) Geneseo
Geographical Breakdown
- Thick black lines indicate first round travel matchups.
- Purple shapes indicate which quadrant of the bracket is which
Rationale
The 8E/6W Split
With Adrian replacing Trinity, the west is one team away from making this an even bracket at long last. While there’s no easy west candidate to point to to replace an east team, it seems unlikely that one of Geneseo or Utica falls all the way out of the bracket anyways.
So, this seems like the most even East/West split we will see. Whether this has staying power or not, depends a lot on how the “Big 4” in the NCHA fare down the stretch. Adrian, Aurora, Trine, and St. Norbert take up Seeds 5-8, and have plenty of games left to build up their resumes.
When looking at the NCHA four, along with the MIAC and WIAC representatives, we get six teams. Now, it’s time to pair up four of these schools to make a western quadrant of this bracket. With Superior and Gustavus being a good deal more west than the other NCHA teams, only 2 of the 4 NCHA schools are within driving distance of them: Aurora and St. Norbert. Therefore, we will pair those schools up for travel purposes, although the seeding doesn’t look great.
The Byes
I’ve said before that I think the NCAA will try to protect the top 2 seeds with a bye in most instances. In a perfect world, that gives #1 Hobart and #2 Utica the byes. I played around with potentially awarding #3 Geneseo or #4 Curry a bye to create a more even (or cheaper) bracket, but no such luck. So Hobart and Utica it is, as it should be.
Setting the First Round Matchups
In the aforementioned western quadrant, #6 Aurora will host #13 Gustavus in this situation, leaving #11 UWS traveling from far west Wisconsin to far east Wisconsin to play #8 St. Norbert. No, it’s not a great system guaranteeing a team like this a trip to the Frozen Four, but in the NCAA’s case, it beats shipping most of these teams on expensive, eastward flights.
Adrian and Trine’s Drivable Distance
#5 Adrian and #7 Trine, being out of driving distance (500 miles) from the WIAC and MIAC teams, sends them east, by default. In terms of east teams, Adrian is within driving distance of #1 Hobart, #3 Geneseo, #10 Oswego, and #14 Wilkes. With Hobart having the bye, Adrian fits right in a quadrant including #3 Geneseo, #5 Adrian, #10 Oswego, and #14 Wilkes. We’ll match up the bottom seed of the bracket #14 Wilkes and #3 Geneseo, which is the exact seeded matchup we want. #5 Adrian will host #10 Oswego in the other First Round game, with all the winners facing off at the highest available seed to host. All four are within driving distance.
Trine has a much stickier situation. Trine is only within driving distance of #1 Hobart and #3 Geneseo. The wild card in this scenario is that NCHA members Trine and Adrian can’t play each other in the First Round. That makes it really challenging to pair #7 Trine with #3 Geneseo, as it is an extremely tough First Round for a #3 seed, while #5 Adrian would get either #10 or #14. Unfortunately, Trine’s first round game will involve a flight. It’s not ideal, but it’s the most cheap and fair option possible. As stated before, I played around with different combinations, but couldn’t find any cheaper or more fair than this one.
The Remaining “Play-In Games”
With the Western pod, the byes, and the “Adrian pod” accounted for, we have four teams left remaining: #4 Curry, #7 Trine, #9 Hamilton, and #12 Plymouth State.
For First Round games, these matchups work fairly well actually. #12 Plymouth State visits #4 Curry, and #9 Hamilton travels west to Indiana to take on #7 Trine. Yes, Hamilton would be offered a flight for this game, but at 559 miles between campuses, it’s not too far over the limit. There’s no guarantee that the Continentals would take the flight either.
With Hobart and Utica still needing to know their potential opponents, we’ll give the #12 PSU/#4 CC winner to #2 Utica, while #1 Hobart would get the #9 HC/#7 TU winner. #2 facing a potential #4 team in a quarterfinal isn’t ideal, but with the west pod being seeded where they’re at, it could definitely be worse.
Frozen Four Placement
Finally, the “easier” lower-seeded western pod would go on the side of the #1 seed, Hobart. This gives them an ideal situation, meaning if the Statesmen win out, they avoid #2, #3, #4, and #5, until a potential National Championship Game. Even without home ice on the line, there are major perks to getting that #1 seed.
Dollars & “Sense”
Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.
First Two Rounds:
- First Round: 1 flight from Hamilton to Trine (if they take it)
Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.
Frozen Four:
-If Adrian hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
- additional flight if Hamilton advances from top left quadrant
- additional flight if Gustavus/UW-Superior advances from bottom left quadrant
-If Aurora/St. Norbert hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
- additional flight if Hobart/Hamilton advances from top left quadrant
- additional flight if Geneseo/Oswego/Wilkes advances from bottom right quadrant
-If Trine hosts:
- 1 flight from top right quadrant of bracket
- additional flight if Oswego/Wilkes advances from bottom right quadrant
- additional flight if Gustavus/UW-Superior advances from bottom left quadrant
If UW-Superior hosts:
- 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-4 flights.
Wrap-Up
Thanks for coming back to Edition #2 of 2025 Men’s Bracketology! I hope to be back after another thrilling week of games and crunching the numbers along the way. Please reach out if you have any questions or comments!
