The end of the regular season is here, and although the bracket isn’t released until tomorrow (Monday) morning, I provided one final snapshot for eager fans to hopefully get a glimpse of where their teams could be heading.  It’s not as fun to project when math decides who is in and out, but I think the who and where of it all is just as intriguing.

Now that the NEHC and NESCAC automatic bids have been handed out this Sunday afternoon, all ten auto-bids are clinched and tickets are punched.

Current Projections as of 3/9/25 UPDATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Automatic Qualifiers (NPI Rank)

• CNE: Curry (1)
• MAC: Stevenson (18)
• MASCAC: Fitchburg State (49)
• MIAC: Gustavus (31)
• NCHA: St. Norbert (5)
• NEHC: Hobart (2)
• NESCAC: Hamilton (9)
• SUNYAC: Oswego (16)
• UCHC: Geneseo (6)
• WIAC: UW-Eau Claire (39)

At-Large (NPI Rank)

• Aurora (3)
• Utica (4)
• Trine (7)
• UNE (8)

First Four Out (NPI Rank)

• Adrian (10)
• UW-Stevens Point (11)
• Endicott (12)
• Trinity (13)

Discussion

• There are a few changes to the projected field based on yesterday’s playoff results.
• Automatic qualifiers have officially earned their bids as 9 automatic bids were handed out yesterday, with the NEHC and NESCAC handing theirs out today.
• New Conference Leader:
  • MAC:
    • Stevenson was able to earn a huge win on the road at Wilkes to capture the MAC automatic bid in its first year of existence, defeating the Colonels 4-1.
    • Unfortunately, Wilkes will not be making a trip to the NCAA Tournament, despite having a very strong season.
• Seed Line Shifts:
  • With no other new teams entering the field, and many home teams taking care of business in conference title games, we just have a couple of shifts to note.
    • With Geneseo’s beatdown of Utica in the UCHC title game, the Pioneers have slipped one spot to the #4 seed, as idle Aurora jumps up to #3.
    • Based on several different unrelated results, Trine has jumped UNE for the #7 seed.  We’ll see if any more change based on today’s results.
    • Stevenson takes the place of #11 Wilkes in that spot of the bracket.
• The cut line for this projection is #10 being the first spot out.  This gives us 5 auto-bid schools in the projected field ranked lower than the first team out, #10 Adrian.
• Multi-bid Leagues:
  • NCHA: (3)
  • CNE: (2)
  • UCHC (2)

Seeding

1. Curry
2. Hobart
3. Aurora
4. Utica
5. St. Norbert
6. Geneseo
7. Trine
8. UNE
9. Hamilton
10. Oswego
11. Stevenson
12. Gustavus
13. UW-Eau Claire
14. Fitchburg State

Projected Bracket

First Round

10) Oswego @ 9) Hamilton

11) Stevenson @ 8) UNE

14) Fitchburg State @ 4) Utica

7) Trine @ 6) Geneseo

12) Gustavus @ 5) St. Norbert

13) UW-Eau Claire @ 3) Aurora

Quarterfinals

10) Oswego/9) Hamilton @ 1) Curry

11) Stevenson/8) UNE vs. 14) Fitchburg/4) Utica

7) Trine/6) Geneseo @ 2) Hobart

12) GAC/5) SNC vs. 13) UWEC/3) Aurora

Geographical Breakdown

Rationale

The 9E/5W Split

With all games in the rearview mirror, we ended up at the uneven split of 9 east teams and 5 west teams.  So, we will most likely end up with a four-team pod of west teams, with one being left out

The Byes

Same as usual, as #1 Curry and #2 Hobart rightfully receive byes in this projection.

Selecting the West Pod

Just like it’s been in weeks past, we can’t fit five west teams into a four-team west pod.  Trine is by far the furthest east and within driving distance of a couple east teams in this field.  So, we will place Trine in an eastern pod.

Thus, the remaining four west teams will make up a pod.  #3 Aurora, #5 St. Norbert, #12 Gustavus, and #13 UW-Eau Claire will be placed together.  Then, we will match these teams up based on seed.  So, we have Eau Claire at Aurora, and Gustavus at SNC.

Trine’s Placement

Here, I’ll put exactly what I wrote last week for brevity’s sake:

“Out east, Trine is still only within driving distance of #2 Hobart and #6 Geneseo.  I avoided this matchup weeks ago, but now that Hobart is #2, I think it’s not egregious enough to keep these teams apart due to seeding.  It’s not ideal by any stretch, and Trine does lose a home game.  However, it would be too costly for the NCAA given what they have to change around it.  It’s not worth it for them, unfortunately.  So, Trine will drive to Geneseo in Round 1, with the winner facing off @ Hobart.”

Setting the Rest of the First Round Matchups

As I stated in the previous two sections:

• In the west pod, we have #13 UW-Eau Claire heading south to play #3 Aurora, and #12 Gustavus visiting #5 St. Norbert.
• In #2 Hobart’s pod, we have #7 Trine driving cross-region to #6 Geneseo.

With the rest of the field, we will just pair off the highest and lowest ranked teams to make the matchups as fair as possible.  Luckily, there are no travel issues with any of these six schools, either.

Remaining Teams: (#1 Curry earns a bye)

• #4 Utica
• #8 UNE
• #9 Hamilton
• #10 Oswego
• #11 Stevenson
• #14 Fitchburg State

When pairing up high and low seeds, we get #14 Fitchburg @ #4 Utica, #11 Stevenson @ #8 UNE, and #10 Oswego @ #9 Hamilton.

Couple notes: #9 Hamilton picks up the home game that #7 Trine loses.  Also, UNE and Stevenson just are within driving distance, as campuses are 499 miles apart!  With a 500 mile limit, this is as close as you can get.

Quarterfinal Assignments

With the west pod being set, and #2 Hobart’s opponents selected, we turn to #1 Curry.

As the top overall seed, Curry will get the winner of the two middle seeds, #10 Oswego and #9 Hamilton.  Thus, the winner of the Lakers and Continentals will face the Colonels in Canton, MA.

The remaining two matchups will make up their own pod.  The #11 Stevenson/#8 UNE winner will face the winner of #14 FSU and #4 Utica with the highest eligible seed hosting the quarterfinal, with the Pioneers having the inside track to host the next round’s game.

Frozen Four Placement

With #1’s pod being matched up with #4’s pod in a traditional bracket, that means we will place the Utica pod alongside Curry’s quadrant of the bracket.

On the flip side, we will pair up Hobart’s pod, with the west pod.  #2 Hobart, #3 Aurora, #5 St. Norbert, #6 Geneseo, and #7 Trine all on one side of the bracket doesn’t seem the most fair, but it’s what the NCAA does in these situations.  Whoever makes it out of the right side of this bracket will have earned it.

Dollars & “Sense”

Here’s what flights the NCAA is ponying up for in this bracket projection.

First Two Rounds:

• 0 flights (just they way they like it!)

Then, with a west host for the Frozen Four, it all comes down to who is hosting.

Frozen Four:

-If Aurora/St. Norbert hosts:

• 2 flights from left side of bracket
• additional flight if Hobart/Geneseo advances from top right quadrant

-If Trine hosts:

• 2 flights from left side of bracket
• additional flight if Gustavus advances from bottom right quadrant

-If Gustavus/UW-Eau Claire hosts:

• 3 flights from all other quadrants of bracket
  • This assumes Trine did not advance from top right quadrant if either Gustavus or Eau Claire is indeed hosting

Depending on results, this bracket results in anywhere from 2-3 flights.

Wrap-Up

Tomorrow, we will see just how close I can get to projecting the bracket perfectly.  Tomorrow morning at 10:30 ET/9:30 CT, teams will begin to prep for what should be another thrilling road to the national championship.